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Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:45 am
by sambucol
txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:34 am
There’s a met on S2K predicting that it goes further south for a 2004 redux where we end up with nothing here. I sure hope that doesn’t turn out to be the case.
We had a lot of snow in 2004 and we are east of Houston.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:54 am
by txsnowmaker
brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:38 am
I don't buy that 6Z GFS run for a second, by the way. It's been way too bullish with west Gulf lows all season. Odds are it doesn't have the pattern right.
Right on cue from 57
I’ll take my cues from 57 when it comes to tropical weather but I’ll take my cues from our on-air mets when it comes to winter weather, especially when conservative on air mets don’t commonly mention a “legit” shot at snow here a week out like one is doing now.
https://abc13.com/arctic-blast-white-ch ... /12576536/
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:59 am
by Cpv17
brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:38 am
I don't buy that 6Z GFS run for a second, by the way. It's been way too bullish with west Gulf lows all season. Odds are it doesn't have the pattern right.
Right on cue from 57
Actually we’ve been pretty wet lately. I’ve had over 10” of rain at my house in the last 6 weeks and like I mentioned with the SOI crashing this has merit.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:59 am
by walsean1
Here is Larry Cosgrove’s Morning Post
https://t.co/hc9ZYXBnKF
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:32 am
by Stratton20
I bet it goes ka poof on the 12z lol, but
i hope not!
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:37 am
by brazoriatx
It will...then it will magically reappear...happens 95% of the time
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:41 am
by brazoriatx
Gfs ops
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:41 am
by mcheer23
Interesting that ensemble support for snow has increased...also shows up on the 00z Euro Control run. As of now probably only a 20 percent chance it actually snows.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:42 am
by txsnowmaker
brazoriatx wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:37 am
It will...then it will magically reappear...happens 95% of the time
Yep, it’s already done that with this particular system.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:43 am
by brazoriatx
mcheer23 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:41 am
Interesting that ensemble support for snow has increased...also shows up on the 00z Euro Control run. As of now probably only a 20 percent chance it actually snows.
20 is better than 0
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:03 am
by mcheer23
Someone forgot to tell the ICON to stay away from drugs lol
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:07 am
by don
The 12Z ICON has completely flipped with the trough placement now over the Plains/Rockies.Shows a deeper and slower trough.Very significant change from its previous runs FWIW.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:09 am
by Cpv17
don wrote: ↑Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:07 am
The 12Z ICON has completely flipped with the trough placement now over the Plains/Rockies.Very significant change from its previous runs FWIW.
How did the ICON do with Feb 21? I think I heard someone mention it did really well.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:09 am
by Dls2010r
What does that mean Don?
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:10 am
by mcheer23
Icon has Houston around 13 degrees next Friday AM....only warming up to about 30
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:10 am
by Dls2010r
I’m a dumb dumb with the verbiage.
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:10 am
by Dls2010r
What about Santa Fe?
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:11 am
by brazoriatx
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:13 am
by txsnowmaker
What is the 12z ICON showing for precip in the Houston area?
Re: December 2022
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:15 am
by Stratton20
doesnt have any precip in SE Texas but does have snow in the GOM LOL!