Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Mr. T]

yea we will see once this storm stops moving NORTH....

According to the latest recon center fixes, the storm has begun a NW heading, albeit slowly...

[Andrew]

yea we will see once this storm stops moving NORTH....

According to the latest recon center fixes, the storm has begun a NW heading, albeit slowly...

I think we are still on wobble watch.

[Snowman]

yea we will see once this storm stops moving NORTH....

According to the latest recon center fixes, the storm has begun a NW heading, albeit slowly...

I think we are still on wobble watch.

yea i dont care what the models are saying now the storm has moved directly north all day! i will be watching the satellite imagery rather than the models

[Mr. T]

0z GFS QPF totals:



Parallel 0z GFS QPF totals



0z NAM QPF totals



Point being, hurricanes are not just a dot on a line, and SE TX will likely see beneficial rains from Alex. It may be even too much, and flooding could definitely become an issue.

[Paul]

Tyler the last 3 fixes average out to be North.....but its wobbling for sure....making a run at the weakness is my thougths tonight...that ULL over in the Bahamas might keep the ridge at bay but not for long...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

but I am done watching the models.... fairly certain where its going now.....

[Andrew]

Tyler the last 3 fixes average out to be North.....but its wobbling for sure....making a run at the weakness is my thougths tonight...that ULL over in the Bahamas might keep the ridge at bay but not for long...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

but I am done watching the models.... fairly certain where its going now.....

Where do you think it is going?

[Paul]

model runs are very telling...even if they had only 2/3 of the upper air sampling inputted....

[Mr. T]

Tyler the last 3 fixes average out to be North.....but its wobbling for sure..

I was just referring to a recon center fix map posted on Eastern where they had found the center had begun moving just a bit more westerly. It indeed could be just a wobble, or the beginnings of a more NW heading.

[Mr. T]

Where do you think it is going?

Oh! I want to answer too teacher!

If you had asked this yesterday I would have said just north of Brownsville, but I think I like the NHC track at this point...

[Snowman]

Tyler the last 3 fixes average out to be North.....but its wobbling for sure..

I was just referring to a recon center fix map posted on Eastern where they had found the center had begun moving just a bit more westerly. It indeed could be just a wobble, or the beginnings of a more NW heading.

I see what you mean by looking at the satellite it will be interesting to see if it keeps moving west. i just hope it doesnt get near the coast and stall out and move north again!

[Mr. T]

0z CMC similar to 0z GFS. South of the border landfall

[Scott747]

Where do you think it is going?

Oh! I want to answer too teacher!

If you had asked this yesterday I would have said just north of Brownsville, but I'm I think I like the NHC track at this point...

I should be in Brownsville right now getting ready to cross the border tomorrow.

[Paul]

the door is still open for sure for a NNW run but its feeling the ridge to its east now ( increase in forward speed) and the 2 highs are looking to merge in the mid states

earlier I was concerned about a stall at the coast and another SV digging in the PAC- NW that could pick it up before landfall.....I think that is out of the mix now....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

[Andrew]

the door is still open for sure for a NNW run but its feeling the ridge to its east now ( increase in forward speed) and the 2 highs are looking to merge in the mid states

earlier I was concerned about a stall at the coast and another SV digging in the PAC- NW that could pick it up before landfall.....I think that is out of the mix now....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

So you think Mexico?

[Mr. T]

So you think Mexico?

Where do you think?

[Andrew]

So you think Mexico?

Where do you think?

Me?

[Mr. T]

So you think Mexico?

Where do you think?

Me?

yup

[Andrew]

So you think Mexico?

Where do you think?

Me?

yup[/quote]

Well a couple of days ago I would of said Corpus but now with the good model consensus and the system moving I think Brownsville or a tad to the north is my guess as of now.

You?

[Scott747]

0z HWRF -

It has even shifted S by a decent margin.

[Mr. T]

Well a couple of days ago I would of said Corpus but now with the good model consensus and the system moving I think Brownsville or a tad to the north is my guess as of now.

You?

Aight, cool

Like I said:

If you had asked this yesterday I would have said just north of Brownsville, but I think I like the NHC track at this point...

Certainly, anything is possible at this point!