SOI is dropping.
ENSO Updates
- MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2357
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
For 4/23/12
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Team #NeverSummer
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Some forecast a strong El Nino, like 1972-1973, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998.
The warm upwell is putting an end to the cool water.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... zteq.shtml
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
More models are predicting a stronger El Nino this summer.
ENSO Diagnosis Discussion
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
Predicts Neutral through the summer.
Seasonal Climate Forecast May – July 2012
http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/ ... e.pdf?ga=t
Analog years are 1968, 1972, and 2009. Years that went from La Nina to El Nino.
ENSO Diagnosis Discussion
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
Predicts Neutral through the summer.
Seasonal Climate Forecast May – July 2012
http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/ ... e.pdf?ga=t
Analog years are 1968, 1972, and 2009. Years that went from La Nina to El Nino.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
The European predicts El Nino this season.
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
The European predicts El Nino this season.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
SOI is dropping into negative territory.
SOI values for 18 Jun 2012Average for last 30 days -7.4
Average for last 90 days -4.2
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -15.0
Monthly average SOI values
March 2.3
April -6.2
May -2.4
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... /index.php
The Equatorial East Pacific is warming up.
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.1ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
SOI is dropping into negative territory.
SOI values for 18 Jun 2012Average for last 30 days -7.4
Average for last 90 days -4.2
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -15.0
Monthly average SOI values
March 2.3
April -6.2
May -2.4
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... /index.php
The Equatorial East Pacific is warming up.
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.7ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.7ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
- MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2357
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Here comes El Nino!
Team #NeverSummer
- Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
Latest discussion from the Climate Prediction Center says Nino is coming alright. It's now a matter of how strong will it be?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.7ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Looks like we are heading towards El Nino.
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.7ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Looks like we are heading towards El Nino.
Two Types of El Nino Events: Cold Tongue El Nino and Warm Pool El Nino
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... JCLI2624.1
There are different kinds of El Ninos/La Ninas. They are not all the same.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... JCLI2624.1
There are different kinds of El Ninos/La Ninas. They are not all the same.
- MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2357
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Should be interesting to see if we get a CT El Nino this year. Those typically bring the harshest Winters.
1972-73
1982-83
1997-98
1972-73
1982-83
1997-98
Team #NeverSummer
- MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2357
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Interesting..... I thought I might draw a correlation between those values, the type of Winter HGX had and the type of El Nino, but I'm not seeing much.
With the PDO tanking this year and El Nino, I was thinking we might see a repeat of one of these.
With the PDO tanking this year and El Nino, I was thinking we might see a repeat of one of these.
Team #NeverSummer
- wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
How is Lake Travis doing these days? We saw some amazing pics last summer of the lake at very low levels.Portastorm wrote:Latest discussion from the Climate Prediction Center says Nino is coming alright. It's now a matter of how strong will it be?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf