ENSO Updates

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

Average
-1ºC

Last Week's ENSO SST
Niño 4= -0.7ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.0ºC

Average
-0.95ºC or -1ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Not much change in La Nina, borderline weak/moderate La Nina. Not a strong La Nina like last winter.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Someone please give me a strong El Nino for a couple winters in a row. That would be nice.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.0ºC

Average
-0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Last Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

Average
-1ºC

Some regions are cooling, while others warming. Not much change overall. Weak/Moderate La Nina right now.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC

Average
-0.975ºC or -1.0ºC

Last Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.0ºC

Average
-0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

La Nina has slightly strengthened. We are in a moderate La Nina. It is not strong like last year at this time.
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Ptarmigan
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La Niña persists over Pacific
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

La Niña conditions continue over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this La Niña may be close to its peak, with a gradual decline expected over the remainder of the austral summer and early autumn.

Climate indicators of ENSO continue to exceed La Niña thresholds. Despite some cooling (i.e. strengthening of the La Niña pattern) at the surface of the tropical Pacific over the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures remain less extreme (i.e., warmer) than at the same time in 2010-11. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña also strengthened slightly over the last fortnight, with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) monthly December value of +23 being the highest value since the breakdown of the 2010-11 event in autumn 2011. The effects of this La Niña can be seen in Australia, with much of the country receiving above average rainfall since October.

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average, while there is an increased tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia during the cyclone season (November to April), peaking in February and March. For the cyclone season so far, three tropical cyclones have occurred in the Australian region. For detailed rainfall and temperature outlooks, please see: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.


La Nina is at its peak according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.1ºC

Average
-0.975ºC or -1.0ºC

Last Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4 -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC

Average
-0.975ºC or -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

No change with overall La Nina.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) stopped the downward trend. The more downward trend SOI is, La Nina is weakening.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.1ºC

Average
-0.975ºC or -1.0ºC

Lask Week's ENSO SST.
Niño 4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3.4= -1.0ºC
Niño 3= -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2= -1.1ºC

Average
-0.975ºC or -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf


Some models are seeing El Nino by the peak season of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Most see Neutral at this time. Should be interesting.

Code: Select all

Season La Niña Neutral El Niño 
JFM 2012 97% 3% 0.1% 
FMA 2012 79% 21% 0.2% 
MAM 2012 52% 48% 0.4% 
AMJ 2012 35% 61% 4% 
MJJ 2012 29% 56% 15% 
JJA 2012 25% 55% 20% 
JAS 2012 22% 55% 23% 
ASO 2012 22% 54% 24% 
SON 2012 21% 54% 25% 

- Made in Jan 2012
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Ptarmigan
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Niño 4 = -1.2ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.1ºC
Niño 3 = -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.4ºC

Average
-0.85ºC or -0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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MontgomeryCoWx
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La Nina getting a tad weaker
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.2ºC
Niño 3 = -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.7ºC

Average
-0.95ºC or -1.0ºC

Lask Week's ENSO SST
Niño 4 = -1.2ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.1ºC
Niño 3 = -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.4ºC

Average
-0.85ºC or -0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.0ºC
Niño 3 = -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.4ºC

Average
-0.725ºC or -0.7ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.2ºC
Niño 3 = -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.7ºC

Average
-0.95ºC or -1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Looks like it is warming up overall. Many forecast models are saying we should be out of La Nina by spring. We may have El Nino by summer or peak season of August to October.

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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3 = -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.9ºC

Average
-0.175ºC or -0.2ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 = -1.0ºC
Niño 3 = -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 = -0.4ºC

Average
-0.725ºC or -0.7ºC

The warming trend is happening as La Nina is fading. Interestingly, Region 1+2 has warmed up considerably and is in El Nino territory.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Most models are now predicting a weak El Nino by July to August. If true, it would be a first time since 2009 to go from La Nina to El Nino. Winters in those years tend to be cold.

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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.4ºC
Niño 3 = 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.9ºC

Average
0ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3 = -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.9ºC

Average
-0.175ºC or -0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

It is only La Nina in Region 4. The rest is Neutral and 1+2 is El Nino. We are pretty much in Neutral.
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I didn't read it as being neutral just yet - from the 2/27 pdf:

"• La Niña has peaked across the equatorial Pacific.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remain at least 0.5°C below average in the central Pacific, but have warmed considerably across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean in the last couple of weeks.
• Atmospheric circulation anomalies remain consistent with La Niña.
• La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012.*"

"• The majority of models predict the return of ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere spring (March-April-May) and continuing through the summer."
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MontgomeryCoWx
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maybe not tropical weather, but El Nino does typically yield wet conditions for Houston
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MontgomeryCoWx
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yep, I've seen some wild wild swings during Winter El Nino years...
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.5ºC
Niño 3 = 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 = 1.1ºC

Average
0.05ºC or 0.1ºC

Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.4ºC
Niño 3 = 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.9ºC

Average
0ºC

This is really interesting. Nino 1+2 is warming, while 3.4 and 4 are cooling. Strange.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Ptarmigan
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 4092
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.6ºC
Niño 3 = -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 = 0.4ºC

Average
-0.3ºC


Last Week's ENSO
Niño 4 = -0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 = -0.5ºC
Niño 3 = 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 = 1.1ºC

Average
0.05ºC or 0.1ºC

It is starting to cool again. I think it could be fluctuations.
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Ptarmigan
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IRI Probabilistic ENSO Prediction for NINO3.4 Region by Atlantic peak season.
ASO 2012 12% 54% 34%

A 34% chance that El Nino will develop by then.

By Late Fall and Early Winter
NDJ 2013 8% 51% 41%

A 41% chance that El Nino will develop by then.

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http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... gure3.html
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