January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

A great weekend ahead for the Olympic Trails and Houston Marathons. Enjoy everyone! GO TEXANS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PUSH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS SE TX EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE STATE...A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS DIFFERED ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH THE COLDEST MODEL/MOS COMBINATION...THE
GFS AND MAV...AND THEN TWEAKED SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST
DOWNWARD. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME UPPER 20S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...
HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE BELOW 30 WILL EAST
OF INTERSTATE 45 NORTHEAST OF METRO HOUSTON. MOST AREAS INLAND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WILL PROBABLY SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR ONE MORE NIGHT.

FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...THE GFS WAS TOO MOIST ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF THROUGH
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THIS MEANS LESS RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND BETTER CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDER CHANCES. THE MODELS
DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

[tireman4]

There not be live streaming of the Olympic Trials Marathon. There will be tweet updates from Flotrack....


http://www.flotrack.org/article/9838-Ho ... dium=email

[JackCruz]

I know these images are irrelevant....heh....but they're sure as heck nice to look at

[wxman57]

Agreed, srain. Nothing indicates any major weather maker down here over the next few weeks.

They're playing my tune at CPC:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

Any rain?

CPC isn't too enthusiastic:

[srainhoutx]

It appears folks E of a line from Western Harris County, N of I-10 and points N and E can expect freezing temps tonight. NE areas near Lake Livingston may see some mid to lower 20's.

[srainhoutx]

Frost is fairly thick in NW Harris County this morning. It does appear capping issues will be the fly in the ointment regarding rains for Monday into Tuesday. The ensembles continue to advertise a very wet pattern for the Pacific NW/Northern California and some suggestion that the Pacific jet may be trending a bit further S in time. The Euro weeklies are 'sniffing' a W based -NAO near day 15 and there remains considerable uncertainty via the Operational and Ensemble guidance regarding the AO/PNA/EPO state. One thing that looks more promising is the demise of the -WPO in the longer range.

[srainhoutx]

While it is still a ways out and things can change, the 12Z Euro is in some agreement with a potent storm near the 25th, +/- a couple of days crossing the Plains and the chance for a possible severe weather episode increases for those in the warm sector. Meanwhile the active pattern for the Pacific NW and California look to continue...

[srainhoutx]

Impressive change after the warm up we are facing via the 12Z Euro. That is a sharp cold front dropping in behind the potent Plains storm as suggested by the Euro...

01142012 12Z Euro f240.gif

01142012 12Z Euro 12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

[JackCruz]

Sorry I'm bored.

[biggerbyte]

Well, it looks to be relatively warm over the coming days, especially on Tuesday. It will NOT feel like winter at all.

[Andrew]

The European model continues to forecast a very strong trough making its way down here around the end of the month and actually speeds things up compared to the 12z run. If this was to verify it could bring us some of our coldest weather all year. Now to see about overrunning precip or possible shortwaves/ULL's to go with it.

[srainhoutx]

Suprisingly it's 32F in NW Harris County with frost this morning. I see Conroe and points NE dropped below freezing as well. Heh...that wasn't expected....

[srainhoutx]

The European model continues to forecast a very strong trough making its way down here around the end of the month and actually speeds things up compared to the 12z run. If this was to verify it could bring us some of our coldest weather all year. Now to see about overrunning precip or possible shortwaves/ULL's to go with it.

Some of the 00Z GFS Ensemble members @ 500mb are sniffing some interesting changes near hour 240 and beyond...

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFES continues to advertise a very wet/snowy pattern for the Cascades and Northern Sierra Nevada Ranges. Flooding concerns may well be growing for the Sacramento Valley regions such as Redding on down to the Sacramento area if these totals verify...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
857 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2012

VALID 12Z THU JAN 19 2012 - 12Z SUN JAN 22 2012

...PERSISTENT HEAVY WINTER PCPN PATTERN FOR THE NWRN US INCLUDING
NRN CA THIS WEEK...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER
SCALE FLOW EVOLUTIONS OUT THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. IN THIS UPCOMING TRANSITIONAL PATTERN...AN EMERGING AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM WAVETRAIN ACROSS THE
PACIFIC MID-LATITUDES TAKES AIM AT THE NWRN US/NRN CA THEN INLAND
AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOWER 48...GRADUALLY
MITIGATING NRN STREAM INFLUENCE. THE MODELS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THE EXTENT OF STREAM INTERACTIONS WITH
TRANSITION...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR PENETRATION FROM
CANADA INTO THE US VERSUS SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS/TRACK.

OVERALL...ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN GFS
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME AT MORE
MODERATE AND SMALLER SPATIAL SCALES...BUT ALONG WITH OTHER
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN VARIANCE IN
RECENT FLOW REGIMES AT LONGER 6-7 DAY TIME FRAMES. THIS CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC TIMING AND STREAM
INTERACTION ISSUES AND IS AGAIN THE CASE TODAY. ENSEMBLE MEANS
HAVE THEMSELVES BY NATURE OFFERED BETTER LONGER TERM CONTINUITY
BUT HAVE NOT BEEN IMMUNE TO UNCHARACTERISTICALLY EVIDENT RUN TO
RUN FLUXUATIONS IN THIS EMERGING TRANSITIONAL PATTERN. PLANNED
WINTER RECON FLIGHTS VECTORED OUT FROM HAWAII TONIGHT MAY BE ABLE
TO AID REDUCTION OF ERROR STARTING WITH TONIGHTS 00 UTC GUIDANCE
RUNS.

ACCORDINGLY AND WITH AN EYE ON MAINTAINING CONTINUITY...UPDATED
HPC PRELIM MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS
HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF DAYS 3-5 WED-FRI
IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL SOLUTION SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE FLOW BEFORE A RAPID TRANSITION TO MORE OF A BLEND OF THE 00
UTC GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ON DAYS 6/7
AS UNCERTAINTY BEYOND LARGER SCALES QUICKLY GROWS.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Op Euro continues to advertise a potent storm with a sharp cold front near the 25th, +/- a couple of days and several 00Z GFES 500mb members are very suggestive of big changes lurking near the same time frame. The longer range GFES even suggests some very chilly air may be dislodged from Canada dropping S into the Intermountain West/Plains into late January/early February. Hopefully with the G-IV Winter Recon missions scheduled over the Pacific, additional data will provide valuable information for the volatile changes seen throughout the operational and ensemble guidance.

[Portastorm]

Steve being a coldophile and me being a 'fun-derstormophile...

There's something to be said for consistency, Ed.

Meanwhile, here's hoping you both get what you want!

[Portastorm]

Sure enough as srainhoutx has been telling us, the GFS has been trending in the direction of the European in showing a major Southern Plains storm system on or around January 23rd-24th. The 12z operational run shows it well now and this is a big change in the last 24 hours for this model. Perhaps there is merited reason for hope for us South Texas winter weather lovers!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro still has a potent Plains storm crossing Arizona/New Mexico heading E...

[weatherguy425]

Just a bit further south and it'd be a wonderful set-up.

[Ptarmigan]

Many of these low pressure systems we get come from Asia as upper air disturbances.