January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[srainhoutx]

There remains enough spread in the 12Z Euro ensemble mean to raise an eyebrow. That blend of the Euro guidance suggests a bit further track S across Texas that warrants some attention. NOAA has added another Winter RECON mission for the 17th. Perhaps the forecast will become a bit more clear with that additional data regarding the Pacific NW/N CA rains/snows as well as what lies upstream way out in the Pacific...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EST SUN 15 JANUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JANUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-046

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49 --
A. P31/ 37.7N 175.0W/ 17/0000Z
B. NOAA9 03WSC TRACKP31
C. 16/1830Z
D. 15 DROPS AS SHOWN ON TRACK
E. 40,000 TO 45,000FT/ 17/0600Z

[JackCruz]

I hope everything falls into place.....if not then next winter season just like the Texans

[srainhoutx]

A Pacific cold front is still on schedule for tomorrow bringing scattered showers and some thunder to the area. Storm chances remain meager due to capping, but areas NE of the Houston Metro may see a stronger storm or two. We will begin a warm up into next weekend and then all eyes turn to a potent storm system cross the region near the 25th, +/- a couple of days. While this remains way out in model world, the suggestion for a potential severe weather event still appears in the cards. We'll need to watch following that storm complex as the GFS flipped to a 'colder' pattern in the very long range with a +PNA/-EPO/-NAO regime as February begins.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

If we are going to have this nasty 70 degree weather with lows in the 50s and 60s, I could really go for another large storm or three over the next month.

If we can't have winter, give me 10 inches plus of rain over the next 4 weeks and I'll call it a deal.

[srainhoutx]

For those wondering, the Pacific NW and California appear headed toward a very wet and snowy pattern for the next 10 days as an active Pacific jet takes aim at those drought parched areas of the Western Lower 48. Snow measured in feet is not out of the question for the Cascade and Sierra Neveda Ranges with flooding concerns in the Sacramento Valley from Redding on down to the capital appear to be increasing...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wow, Crescent City and Co. look to get absolutely pounded in the next 10 days. I've experienced the strong Pacific Jet in CC and its something else.

[MESOMAN]

The source region in Canada is becoming much colder! Just hope we can get some of the cold air to transfer south. Waking up to 64 in January is a real bummer.

[wxman57]

I still don't see much cold air in Canada. Sure, the NW Territory has a few temps in the -20F to -40F, but the cold just isn't that extensive. Looking forward to a low of 66 tomorrow, as that's what I put as the "warmest low" in my January forecast contest.

Current temps in Canada:

[srainhoutx]

Just remember what happened last February. The first 10 days brought record cold to Texas with temps in the teens for lows, two ice events and nearly 100 hours below freezing in SE TX... Enjoy the warm weather while it lasts. February is notorious for some wild wintry mischief events in Texas and we may well be headed toward a big flip in the pattern late January/early February.

[MESOMAN]

No its not as cold as it could be up there but if I remember right last week there were some 40s and 50s up there. So it is becoming colder. And I agree with srain, February has dealt some sharp cold for us in SE TX many times before, including last year.
I remember when growing up here most of the ice or snow I saw was in Feb.

[wxman57]

Meanwhile, I'll enjoy the beautiful "winter" weather here today (mid to upper 70s) and again this coming weekend.

Snow cover January of 2011:


Current snow cover to our north is far less than this time last year. That will be a big factor in how cold we could get:

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Op GFS continues to suggest a potent storm crossing the Great Basin/Southern Rockies/Plains near the 25th. It will be interesting to follow this event in the days ahead as it has the potential to be a major weather news event for late January...

[harpman]

Is this what will jump start the pattern shift?

[wxman57]

Here's the latest IAH meteogram from the 12Z GFS. Not a bad week, with the exception of Wed-Thu. Looks like good biking weather next weekend.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Can you explain Sondes to me? Sorry for the question, just trying to learn.

[wxman57]

Can you explain Sondes to me? Sorry for the question, just trying to learn.

Upper air data is always quite sparse over the oceans. Ed is saying that there is a plane out in the East Pacific dropping instrument packages that will gather additional data to go into this evening's GFS run. More data over the ocean west of the U.S. generally results in a more accurate model forecast. It's always good to get more data upstream of the U.S.

I hadn't heard about the plans do drop a series of dropsondes today. Good to hear.

[srainhoutx]

The late January storm is now showing up on the long range Canadian. We'll need to watch this system very carefully in the coming days as a significant severe weather event potential grows by the day...

[srainhoutx]

Very concerning to see such anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska at this range. The data ingest from the first Winter RECON mission are making their appearance in guidance today. Wow...Seattle is mentioning snow totals near or above the 1985 records at SEATAC...interesting.

01162012 12Z Euro 12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA144.gif

01162012 12Z Euro 12zECMWF500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif

[wxman57]

Just went out for lunch at one of my favorite spots (Burger House off Airport) and that sure is some beautiful winter weather!! It doesn't get any better than this - sunny and mid 70s in January (except, maybe, when it's sunny and low 80s in January).

Taking a look at the 12Z models - the Euro is MUCH farther north with the upper low on Tuesday the 24th. Takes the center across the northern TX panhandle vs. the Big Bend area. 12Z GFS has the upper low center a BIT farther north - over Minneapolis! That's quite a difference. 12Z Canadian doesn't go out far enough, but it doesn't show anything in TX or MN prior to the 24th, just a big upper low off southern CA. Needless to say, there's no model agreement that far out. None of the models is indicating any snow in TX. Even the Euro has the snow line just north of the Panhandle with its storm next week.

[weatherguy425]

Srain, Yesterday's 18z GFS run hinted at something similar. A Very cold air-mass entering the Lower 48 via western Montana. Also of note is that this monster plains storm is going to be laying down quite a snow-pack, potentially.