January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[sambucol]

JB tweets:

"GFS ensembles hint at Fab Feb for lovers of winter.. as neg ao/nao develop..block heading to Greenland in longer term."

Let's hope he is right this time.

There are certainly 'hints' in that direction. We will see...

What would that mean for us if JB is right? Thanks.

[Ptarmigan]

I dont see anything in the long range la la land GFS this month that catches my eye though I would look at temps in Fairbanks......when you start seeing -40-45 below that mean its starting to pool up and it will have to spill over into the 48 at some point..... Still have minimal snow pack to the north....

You might be interested in this.
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1126

[BiggieSmalls]

good stuff! that is what i was getting at.

[JackCruz]

So our snow chance has gone yet again! *Arizona voice* *insert caps*

Lol at us hitting 80 degrees....what is this madness.....

[wxman57]

JB tweets:

"GFS ensembles hint at Fab Feb for lovers of winter.. as neg ao/nao develop..block heading to Greenland in longer term."

Let's hope he is right this time.

JB's a bigger cold-mongerer than I am a warm-mongerer. He's a good meteorologist, though.

[srainhoutx]

The front is slowly slipping S across Kansas this evening as the upper air disturbance treks E. Tomorrow offers changeable weather with some breezy NW winds following that boundary...I suspect those 'night owls' will be watching early next week...

[JackCruz]

Where did my beautiful precip go?

[srainhoutx]

NCEP Operational Status Message
Tue Jan 17 03:09:59 2012 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 170309
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0308Z TUE JAN 17 2012
THE 00Z GFS MODEL HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. 15 PACIFIC
OCEAN NOAA G-IV DROPSONDES WERE AVAILABLE FOR INGEST.
$$
HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[Ptarmigan]

The warmest January 16th was in 1936, when it reached 81°F. From there it gets cooler. February 1936 is the 10th coolest February on record in Houston. The winter of 1935-1936 is one of the coolest winters in America. So, there is hope that it could get cold.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Another very warm day expected today ahead of the next cold front this afternoon.

Temperatures already starting out in the low 70’s this morning which is about 10 degrees higher than our normal high temperature and much like Monday highs should reach into the mid to upper 70’s under cloudy skies with periods of drizzle and light rain this morning becoming showers this afternoon. Highs are running 3-5 degrees short of records! A cold front over N TX will rapidly move southward and cross the area this afternoon. Unfavorable SW flow in the mid level should advect a capping inversion across SE TX from northern MX helping to limit the growth of thunderstorms along the front. Additionally this dry flow will spread drier mid level air into the region with moisture confined to below the cap. Lift along the front and pooling Gulf moisture should be enough however the generate a few bands of showers along and ahead of the boundary from mid morning to mid afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be less than .5 of an inch for most locations.

Front will bring strong cold air advection ending the warm spell and knocking temperatures back toward what would be normal for this time of year…at least for one day (Wednesday). Progressive pattern aloft pushes the cold dome quickly eastward with southerly winds returning by Thursday and a quick warm up to back above normal (50 for lows by Friday and 70’s for highs). Very warm weekend is expected with deep southerly flow with low rising into the upper 60’s and highs pushing 80.

Next fairly potent looking storm system will arrive early next week. Moisture levels will deepen significantly over the weekend with PWS pushing 1.5 inches by Sunday. Track of this system will need to be watched closely in the next few days as strong dynamics atop good Gulf moisture return may result in a very active early next week.

[srainhoutx]

While there remains some uncertainty regarding the eventual track for early next week of the potent storm expected, there is growing concerning with increased instability and abundant Gulf moisture that a severe weather event may well be ahead. The GFS is further N while the Euro is S into Northern Mexico with this track. As we have seen since November, these systems tend to favor the more southerly solution and my hunch that will be exactly what we eventually see. I'll have more later on some other indicators that are showing up in the longer range that will perk the ears of those who are looking for a return of 'colder weather'. As a teaser, wxman57 better enjoy these warm days as they may we be limited...

[wxman57]

Yes, I'm enjoying the warm temps. Thinking of taking Friday off to go on a long bike ride with the temperature climbing back into the 70s. Thanks for asking.

Nice weekend in store for us:

[srainhoutx]

While our remains capped, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk for our neighbors in Louisiana and points E. There are some storms attempting to fire to our N and E and break that cap, but I suspect the stronger storms will remain NE of the Houston Metro area today...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL LA INTO NORTHERN
AL...

...LOWER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING
EASTWARD ACROSS IL AND SOUTHEAST MO...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. PLEASE REFER TO MCD #22 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...AR/LA/MS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SUBTLE SOUTHERN-STREAM IMPULSE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTH TX WHICH WILL TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD AND INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OVER EAST TX AND SOUTHERN AR. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO LA AND SOUTHERN MS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK OF
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

...MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN MS/AL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO
DESTABILIZE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the E...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E TX/NRN AND CENTRAL LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171526Z - 171600Z

WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FROM EXTREME E TX EWD THROUGH MUCH
OF NRN/CENTRAL LA TO SRN MS.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN A
CORRIDOR OF ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WAA ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISMS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT THIS
TIME AND CLOUDINESS LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE
SUPPORTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS LA /MLCAPE AOA 1000
J PER KG/.

12Z RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE/LAYER ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THAT MAY CONTINUE TO ACT AS A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR OVERALL COVERAGE OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS/STRONGER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SWD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES REMAIN LIKELY WITH AT LEAST A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THE TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD WEAKEN THE CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN
STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND SRH EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2012


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

Regarding early next week, the 12Z GFS trended a bit S with the upper air disturbance across the Texas Panhandle and then N and E. It does remain rather progressive and does suggest storms on Monday. It is note worthy that additional short wave energy is dropping SE into the Great Basin following that 5H feature and troughing continues to our West and deepens.

[srainhoutx]

The longer range 12Z la la land GFS...heh...

[wxman57]

12Z GFS does forecast a light freeze for Houston on February 2nd (hour 384). That's the only time it forecasts sub-40F temperatures over the next 2 weeks.

[srainhoutx]

On the other hand, the 12Z Canadian is much slower with the upper low and has it just moving onshore in California on Monday...

01172012 12Z Canadian 12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

01172012 12Z Canadian f180.gif

[wxman57]

One thing that bothers me is that there actually IS some cold air in southern Canada now. It can't get cold here if the temps to our north are not cold (which is good for me). But just because the cold air is in southern Canada doesn't mean we're in for any extreme cold or winter precip down here. There has to be a mechanism to take the cold air southward to Texas. Unfortunately (for me), there are some indicators that the current zonal (west to east) flow pattern may be changing toward the end of the month. Question is - is the GFS correct in forecasting the more NW-SE flow aloft by February 1st? Time will tell.

Meanwhile, time to take cover before that nasty cold front arrives this afternoon/evening.

[wxman57]

Right, even the long-range GFS isn't indicating any freezing/frozen precip anywhere near SE TX, just a little cool rain possible.