January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[MontgomeryCoWx]

[*]Too early? Anyone want to start taking shots at our first experiences with 2012?


Here's to a brutally cold and wintry begin to 2012!

[srainhoutx]

Once we get beyond the long Holiday Weekend, I'll post some thoughts regarding January. A little teaser, things are beginning to look a bit interesting around January 12th, +/- a couple of days for significant pattern change...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Sounds right... That blocking high moves over Alaska around the 1st

[Katdaddy]

If we can get can get some deeper cold air down from Canada and this active southern storm track continues....maybe just maybe....however only a far off thought for now.

[srainhoutx]

Just for grins and as a teaser looking ahead to January, the la la land 06Z GFS suggests a nice 1056mb Arctic High Pressure across NW Canada and a strong +PNA ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. While we certainly cannot trust the models at this range, it does fit with some of the indications showing a MWW/SSW event and should these trends continue, we may well see a pattern change bringing some mighty chilly air into the lower 48. We will see...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That's a beautiful Omega block in Alaska.


I'm definitely ready to hit the slopes in January.

[wxman57]

Taking a look at the stratospheric temps (10mb) on the GFS for the next 16 days, I see some warming in about 10 days but the warming in western Canada fades after then. 12Z GFS does indicate temps finally falling below normal in western Canada by January 6th, down to 30-35F below normal. Until then, the GFS is indicating temps from 10-30F above normal in western Canada. So we might have a shot at some sub-freezing temps by the 2nd week of January. That's assuming the extended part of the GFS forecast is correct (big assumption). Until then, it looks like a more typical La Nina pattern across the U.S. (not like last year).

[redneckweather]

Yep, looks like some good solid cold air could be coming down in January BUT the wet pattern we have been in is long gone. Cold without frozen precip (excluding hunting and the holiday season) is for the birds.

[JackCruz]

I'll still accept the cold..even if we end up snowless....after all it is winter.

[wxman57]

The latest GFS run dropped the prediction of much-below temps in western Canada in about 14 days. It's considerably warmer than previous runs.

[Ptarmigan]

I'll still accept the cold..even if we end up snowless....after all it is winter.

No, it ruins severe season. If there is any cap at all, air moving from the Southern Gulf with upper 60s dewpoints forms low clouds over cool shelf waters, and doesn't allow for insolation that would allow the cap to be broken.


A happy Spring is aided by a normal to above normal NW Gulf SST.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8gosst.png

As long as we have a wet, but not so cold winter, I am fine with it. Also, a dry spring does not bode well with a dry and hot summer. We don't want that again.

[Andrew]

Take a look at the 00z Euro! wow:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[wxman57]

A week ago, the Euro was forecasting widespread freezing conditions from TX to FL today/tomorrow. The problem has been a lack of cold air in western Canada. Current Euro is forecasting a freeze down to the Gulf Coast early next week (again), but at the same time it's forecasting temps in western and central Canada to be 20-35 deg above normal. The current Euro is slowly trending closer to the GFS/Canadian, so there's a good chance it's 5-8 deg too cold for temps down south next week.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian and Euro trended a bit W today and the GFS doesn't show any full/mid latitude trough. My hunch is there will be multiple solutions this week before guidance latches onto a solution that may not be all that different from what we saw this past weekend across Texas. We will see.

[redneckweather]

What wxman and srain are trying to say is, our chances of wintry mischief for the rest of the winter time are ZERO. It's time to start prepping those spring time gardens!

[wxman57]

12Z Euro indicates cold air moving south next week but definitely NOT an Arctic outbreak. The flow is off the Gulf of Alaska into British Columbia then southward into the U.S. I'm looking at the surface temperature anomaly maps and it's forecasting temps 20F-30F above normal in western Canada through next week. It develops the high center over the U.S., it doesn't bring any really cold air down from the Arctic. Checking its projected surface temps, it's only forecasting a low of around 30F in Houston for next Wednesday (mid to upper 20s in Dallas) as the coldest morning. Certainly nothing out of the ordinary and not too different from what it forecast for Texas temps a week ago valid today/tomorrow. It was too cold on that forecast and it may be too cold for next week.

In contrast, GFS has low temps in the mid 50s along the upper TX coast for next Wed, about 20 deg warmer. There's definitely a difference between the two, but there's no Arctic air involved.

No, winter is not over (unfortunately - I'm ready for 100F highs again!). Our best shot at winter precip is generally in February. But with a lack of cold air in western Canada presently (and forecast) it may be hard to get much really cold air down here over the next 2-3 weeks. I do think that we have a fair shot at an ice storm across the Southern Plains (including NE TX) from late January through February if we can get a little bit of a snow pack over the Central Plains by then.

[wxman57]

It also looks "fishy" that the 12Z Euro forecasts 850mb (5000ft) temps down to -13C next Tuesday afternoon with a temp near 40 for the high and a low of only 29-30 at IAH on Wednesday of next week.

[srainhoutx]

So we have the Euro/Canadian ~vs~ GFS/UKMET. The Euro scores #1 @ 500mb and the UKMET #2. We have many runs to go before we'll see which solution is correct...

[wxman57]

So we have the Euro/Canadian ~vs~ GFS/UKMET. The Euro scores #1 @ 500mb and the UKMET #2. We have many runs to go before we'll see which solution is correct...

Yes, it's a big battle now. I'm pulling for the GFS, which is a good 20F warmer than the Euro for next week.

Unfortunately, it appears the GFS is quite the outlier...

[JackCruz]

Damn. Imagine if this actually happens.