February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[Belmer]

Anybody else watch Frank's forecast a moment ago? He only showed the three day, not the full 7 day (which he doesn't usually do till the 5:00 news anyway). But he made me suspicious when he was talking about the Sunday high of 51 degrees, then said there was a 20% chance Sunday night, which he had a low of 34. It's just the way he said it, and said he would talk more about it at 5:00.

[weatherguy425]

Does anyone know If this weekend's disturbance has been sampled? I'm not even sure where it is right now... but models have recently trended a lot drier regarding the system...at least in North Texas. Has any new data been ingested?

[srainhoutx]

Light rains should move out by mid day as the upper trough swings by and an Arctic front drops S. Low temps continue to drop as the air mass is colder than modeled and a light freeze is now expected Saturday night, mainly along and N of HWY 59. Funny how that works out after all the calls by some that there was no cold air to be found except in the NE and a shallow Arctic air mass is under estimated. A 1044+ Arctic High tends to do that when it is centered to our N. Sunday looks to be a cold, raw day and wxman57 will not be riding his bike as he will be bundled up in his blanket, shivering as wintry mischief lurks to our N and W in Central and West Texas. An active pattern redevelops with a split flow and a SW flow aloft with embedded short wave energy that can not be forecasted very well in model world lending to forecasting challenges. An interesting week may well be ahead in the weather department. Stay Tuned...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

decent rainfall totals coming in.... another gut punch to the drought!

[redneckweather]

Yep, we got a very modified arctic air mass coming down giving locations north of Houston a light freeze which has been experienced many of times already for me this fall/winter season. It will feel much colder though because of cloud cover moving in on Sunday to insulate the cold air a bit making for a raw day I am sure. Winter will start to lose its grasp on southeast Texas after this weeekends front as we move closer and closer to the Spring season. In fact, signs of Spring will start to appear over the next couple of weeks in Southeast Texas. Just about time to get my garden prepped.

[wxman57]

A Menudo day, Ed??

[Ptarmigan]

Where all the cold air went. All the cold air had to go somewhere.

A tale of two hemispheres: Europe freezes as America enjoys a mild winter
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/02/a- ... ld-winter/

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I guess that's what Europe deserves for buying into the ridiculous Global Warming BS and intertwining it with Politics.

With that said, please send some of that cold air our way. Thanks!

[wxman57]

Major, major differences between the Euro and GFS 500mb flow (and surface features) beyond about Tuesday of next week. Neither is likely correct. Same as with other systems over the past month (or two). The models will finally begin to agree when the event is 3-4 days out.

[Belmer]

Major, major differences between the Euro and GFS 500mb flow (and surface features) beyond about Tuesday of next week. Neither is likely correct. Same as with other systems over the past month (or two). The models will finally begin to agree when the event is 3-4 days out.

I noticed that, but as a glass half full optimist, I only post the images I'd prefer to verify. They call it wishcasting someplaces, I'll call it being optimistic and upbeat.

I am not at a computer where I can view models right now. So may I ask what the "major" differences are between the two!?

[Belmer]

I am not at a computer where I can view models right now. So may I ask what the "major" differences are between the two!?

The more things change... Or not. Euro operational is way, way flatter with the SW US trough. But I'll just post optimistic images.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

I'm on a strict computer, images are being blocked. You posted images earlier and a small [x] appears on the top right. I'll have to look in a few hours when I get back on my laptop! Y'all are making me curious.. haha!

[Ptarmigan]

A Menudo day, Ed??

Menudo is name of a Puerto Rican boy band. Also, it is name of a Mexican soup. It is said to be a good hangover cure.

[Portastorm]

Despite some experts saying winter is over ... Mother Nature is saying "not so fast."

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
438 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111245-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
438 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...

AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS GULF
MOISTURE OVERRUNS A MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS IN PLACE. AS READINGS
CONTINUE DROPPING TOWARDS SUNRISE...SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME
MIXED WITH SLEET. AFTER SUNRISE...THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
ATMOSPHERIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE TIME OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING. THUS...MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE THAT OVERRUNS SUNDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS
OVERRUNNING CONTINUES DURING THE DAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

MODEL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. RESIDENTS
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL
WINTRY MIX EVENT SUNDAY MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

A very interesting and active pattern is ahead for the time period from Sunday until next weekend. As we have seen, the models just do not handle things too well and that has been the case since late December. As many will recall, the forecast for our 'Winter' was dry and hot. We have really seen neither. Our drought situation continues to improve and temps have not been very much above average at all. In fact we are seeing near normal temps with above average rainfall. While some may always 'hope' that winter will bring wintry mischief and Siberian cold to Texas, which is just not and never has been in the cards for a typical La Nina Winter. What is very atypical is our rainfall. The active Pacific flow and numerous cut off upper lows have brought benefits in the drought department. We have seen severe weather with tornadoes and flooding rains and that pattern does not appear to be ending anytime too soon, IMO. As the MJO shifts into phase 8-1-2 as we are now witnessing, the sub tropical jet and tropical forcing becomes more of a player in the pattern ahead. This mornings WV imagery depicts a Kona Low tapping deep tropical moisture on our side of the Date Line and the Pacific flow has switched to one that is on a NE trajectory toward SE Alaska away from the Pacific NW as we have seen all season thus far. A robust Polar Vortex continues to rotate near the Hudson Bay Region in Canada with embedded short wave energy spinning around that feature sending attending cold fronts S and E. What is now being suggested is a flip in the blocking regime across the N Atlantic. High pressure is sliding W from Europe suggesting a Greenland Block or -NAO is developing. Many have wondered why there has been no winter in North America this year. The entire pattern regime may well be flipping to one that brings a very active storm pattern across all of North America with bouts of cold and snow to our N in the Plains and very stormy and active severe weather to the S in the warm sector. One thing I've noticed in years of watching weather patterns is that when the ball starts rolling and changes begin to take place, hold on. We could be in for a wild ride. So ending my long and boring diatribe, I'll leave you with the words that the infamous JB always states. 'Enjoy the weather. Because it's the only weather we've got'.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1004 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111900-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1004 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...

AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS
GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNS A DRY COLD AIRMASS. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
DROPPING TOWARDS SUNRISE...SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH
SLEET. AFTER SUNRISE...THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC
FORECAST PROFILES SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AT THE TIME OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE THAT OVERRUNS SUNDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...AND
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES DURING THE DAY...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

MODEL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. RESIDENTS
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL
WINTRY MIX EVENT SUNDAY MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1042 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGHS AND SKY COVER TODAY. QUICK LOOK AT
12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BECOMING
ALL LIQUID OR RAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THE DRY LOW
LEVELS...IT APPEARS THE WINTER MIX WILL BE VERY LIGHT DUE TO
EVAPORATION...HOWEVER IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...THE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING EFFECTS WILL LIKELY ENSURE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS FROZEN
OR A MIX. BECAUSE OF FORECAST FREEZING MIN TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING...AM STRONGLY CONSIDERING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES AS SOME BRIDGE AND OVERPASSES COULD HAVE SOME
BRIEF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL IMPACT DRIVING.

[Belmer]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1042 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGHS AND SKY COVER TODAY. QUICK LOOK AT
12Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/SNOW SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL TX BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BECOMING
ALL LIQUID OR RAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. DUE TO THE DRY LOW
LEVELS...IT APPEARS THE WINTER MIX WILL BE VERY LIGHT DUE TO
EVAPORATION...HOWEVER IF PRECIPITATION DOES FALL...THE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING EFFECTS WILL LIKELY ENSURE INITIAL PRECIPITATION IS FROZEN
OR A MIX. BECAUSE OF FORECAST FREEZING MIN TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE SUNDAY MORNING...AM STRONGLY CONSIDERING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES AS SOME BRIDGE AND OVERPASSES COULD HAVE SOME
BRIEF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THAT WILL IMPACT DRIVING.

Even though we might not see accumulation here in San Marcos, I would still be happy to see something fall from the sky besides rain. So if this still looks good at about 11:00 tonight, I'm getting up around 4:00-5:00 tomorrow morning and watch what happens. My winter would be made just to see one snowflake.

[srainhoutx]

Even Corpus is mentioning a chance of wintry mischief near Laredo tomorrow morning...

ONE NOTE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING IN A WINTRY MIX
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS LA SALLE AND NORTHWEST WEBB COUNTIES
INDICATE THE PRECIP MELTING THROUGH A LAYER THAT REMAINS ABOVE
FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS
INITIALLY SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING BETWEEN 900-800MB THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUNDING TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THIS LAYER BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY BRIEF MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA SALLE
AND NORTHWEST WEBB COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 6 AM TO NOON SUNDAY...

.COLD DRY AIR CONTINUED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE AN APPROACHING UPPER AIR TROUGH WILL BRING PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THROUGH THE
COLD DRY AIRMASS. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FORM INTO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND EVEN LIGHT SNOW.
THIS WINTRY MIX COULD RESULT IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE MAINLY
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE HILL
COUNTRY COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT ICING ON ELEVATED ROADS AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.


TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-120500-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.120212T1200Z-120212T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-
COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...
HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS
314 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...6 AM TO NOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...MOTORISTS ENCOUNTERING SLIPPY ICE ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS 20 TO 25 DEGREES.

Disco snippet...

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN/ERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES NOT ABLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND NRN COUNTIES. CIRRUS CLOUDS
WERE STREAMING RAPIDLY INTO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE BAJA AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXACT TIMING NOT YET CERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY EVAPORATE BEFORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AND MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LAYERS WILL RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SLEET/LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER EVEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL MAKE THEM VERY SLICK. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6AM TO NOON SUNDAY FOR ALL OF HILL
COUNTRY AND SOME ADJACENT COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED AN EXTRA TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF HILL COUNTRY DUE
TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE COUNTIES. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IF
PRECIPITATION IS DELAYED AND TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO WARM MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING BY NOON TIME. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL BE WORDED
AS LIGHT MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY BY 4-8 DEGREES AND THAT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
242 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
...A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND POSSIBLY SNOW EXPECTED
NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...CLEBURNE...DALLAS...EMORY LINE LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WELL TO OUR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CA/NV AND BAJA MEXICO. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
CURRENTLY PLACE WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE CA/NV
DISTURBANCE ABSORBS THE MEXICO DISTURBANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE THEN WILL PROCEED TO INDUCE TOP-DOWN SATURATION AND
WET-BULB COOLING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING
INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.
ENOUGH SATURATION MAY LEND TO SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIFT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON SOUNDING PROFILES WITH
THE NAM12 COLDER THAN THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF KIND OF IN BETWEEN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...PARTIAL
THICKNESS METHODS DIFFER MORE THAN THE SOUNDINGS. TO SAY THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION...TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS IS
AN UNDERSTATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH AT THIS TIME AND TAKE THE WINTRY MIX LINE DOWN TO A
COMANCHE...DALLAS...EMORY LINE. THIS LINE MAY BE ADJUSTED BACK
NORTH OR SOUTH DEPENDING ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND ATMOSPHERIC
CHANGES WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.