February: Calm Weather To End The Month

[wxman666]

Canadian is wet enough Friday, but Easterly winds, and a 6 to 8ºC 850 mb temp doesn't just scream "fun-derstorms" at me. Nor does the Euro. GFS depresses with monotonous languor.

Howdy Ed, what are your thoughts on the Tuesday/Wednesday system? Both SPC and HGX seem to think it'll be pretty powerful. I'm in the same boat as you...looking for another round of "fun-derstorms" as you call them, though I'm not wishing damage or injury on anyone. Speaking of which, HGX said there were 2 twisters in the Snook area and one was rated EF-2.

[wxman666]

Regarding my last post to Ed:

From the Storm Prediction Center:

"EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP BY AROUND DAYS 7/8 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS/MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
JUNCTURE IN REGARDS TO THIS SCENARIO."

From HGX:

"A PRIMARILY WEAK 5H TROUGH
PASSAGE MONDAY IS MODELED TO BE FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM TIMED TO AFFECT THE REGION A WEEK FROM NOW. THUS...MODEST
RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY`S WEAKER SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP
AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO PASS ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY..."

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Wet weather makes a comeback this period across the region helping to make more progress in our drought conditions.

Active southern storm track since late October remains across the state and this morning’s water vapor shows yet another upper level trough digging southward down the western coast of Baja with favorable jet positioning downstream over TX to begin lifting of a moist Gulf air mass northward over the surface cold dome. High pressure that moved southward yesterday allowing an increase in northerly winds will move eastward today allowing winds to turn toward the east by early Friday. Rapid increase (doubling) of current moisture profiles are expected by early Friday morning. This combined with increasingly favorable lift both from 295K isentropic upglide and right entrance region of the upper level jet all point to rain developing from S TX northward late this afternoon into midday Friday. Will see clouds lower and thicken today with skies becoming cloudy by evening and rain developing northeastward up the coast overnight. Lack of instability should keep most of the rain as light rain or showers with stable profiles not suggestive of thunderstorms. If thunderstorms do form they will be elevated and not surface based with may be a small hail threat.

System will be east of TX by Saturday morning with another surge of cool high pressure in its wake. Lows will dip into the upper 30’s to low 40’s for both days over the weekend with highs in the 50’s under northerly winds. Clouds may break up some on Saturday, but with the sub-tropical jet nearby, high clouds may once again blanket the area…as seen for much of this week. Next system approaches from Mexico on Sunday/Monday. Will repeat the Friday event again on Sun-Mon as the next storm drops into the trough off of Baja and then ejects NE across TX. This system may have a slightly better return of moisture and instability so some thunderstorms may be possible. Rains will develop from SW to NE Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday evening. This system will lack any type of post frontal cold air advection and will help usher in a return of spring like weather Monday-Thursday of next week.

Third and final system looks the strongest and appears on target for the Wed-Thurs period of next week. Prolonged southerly flow will bring deep moisture into the area ahead of this system along with decent instability. Looks like a chance of heavy rainfall and possibly strong thunderstorms with this system toward the middle of next week.

Rainfall amounts tonight-Friday will average .25 to .75 of an inch with most of this falling as a soaking light to moderate rainfall. Rainfall totals on Sunday night-Monday will average .50 to 1.25 inches. May see some run-off problems with the Sun-Mon rainfall as there appears to be a better chance of heavy rainfall. Grounds are wet and after another slow soaking rainfall on Friday grounds will be soggy come Sun-Mon. Flood waves from rainfall last week continue to progress down the mainstem rivers and should reach the Gulf of Mexico today-Saturday, but recessions, especially on the lower Trinity River will be slow due to ongoing gate operations at Livingston.

[Katdaddy]

Spring on the way......from this mornings AFD

CURRENTLY
MODELED TO PACK MORE OF A PUNCH FROM A FRONTOGENESIS/MESO-FORCING
STAND-POINT. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS DEEPER TROUGH HAS
HIGHER PROBS OF THUNDER OCCURRENCE DURING THIS MID-WEEK TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE VALUES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
FROM A COOLER AND DRIER START TO THE WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MX/MN TEMP BEHAVIOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES...BOOK-ENDED BY RAIN EVENTS...WILL MOSTLY
LIKELY INITIATE A MINI-SPRING LIKE FEEL TO THINGS...NOT ONLY FROM
A WEATHER STAND POINT BUT ALSO FROM THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SEEING MORE NEWLY-BLOOMED PERENNIALS AND MOSQUITOES.

[srainhoutx]

Change is certainly in the 'air' this morning via the HPC Morning Update. The active MJO may just be what the doctor ordered for our ongoing drought...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
735 AM EST THU FEB 09 2012

VALID 12Z MON FEB 13 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 16 2012

STRONG JET STREAM WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF A STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS PERIOD. THIS FAVORS SPLIT-FLOW
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DISTINCT NRN AND SRN STREAM...A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. DOWNSTREAM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE THRU D+8 INDICATES AN
EAST BASED NEG NAO WITH STRONG POSITIVE HT ANOMALY SOUTHEAST OF
GREEENLAND WITH A TENDENCY TO RETROGRADE THIS SLOWLY WEST. THIS IS
SUPPORTIVE OF KEEPING LOWER HTS AND COLDER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES. SUPPORT IS ALSO HERE WITH A WEAKER PHASE 8
MJO THIS PERIOD ESPECIALLY ERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A
DEEP ERN TROF THIS COMING WEEKEND. LONGER TERM MJO FORECASTS OF A
SHIFT INTO PHASE 1 ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF BELOW AVG WRN CONUS HTS
AND NEAR AVG OVER THE ERN THIRD OD CONUS. THIS TREND IS SEEN IN
THE MODEL DAILIES AND THE CPC D+8 HT ANOMALIES.

PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG PACIFIC JET...WHICH ARE VERY
DIFFICULT TO INITIALIZE...COMBINED WITH INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR HUDSON BAY...SUPPORT AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE AT BEST DAYS 3-5 BEFORE FALLING BELOW AVERAGE FOR DAYS
6/7. DAY-TO-DAY MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE 00Z GFS LIES NEAR THE FAST
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH 2 FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING
THE PACIFIC DAYS 3/4...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET OFFERING THE BEST
COMBINATION OF DETAIL WHILE ADDRESSING THE ANTICIPATED SOLUTION
DIFFERENCES. THUS...THE GFS WAS NOT USED IN DEVELOPING THE
PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS. BEGINNING WITH DAY
5/TUE...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/UKMET BECOME APPRECIABLY
LARGER.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BASED ON 00Z ECMWF DAYS 3-4 SUN/MON AND
00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN DAYS 5-7

[wxman666]

4-8 Day Outlook Update from SPC:


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 091000
SPC AC 091000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST THU FEB 09 2012

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z/9TH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CONUS. THE CONTINUED PREVALENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES WILL INITIALLY RESULT
IN LITTLE OR NO APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT AROUND DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION SHOULD
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN INLAND.

THEREAFTER...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP BY AROUND LATE DAY 6/TUESDAY INTO DAYS 7/8
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO GULF COAST STATES AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS/MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS JUNCTURE.

..GUYER.. 02/09/2012

CLICK TO GET

[wxman57]

One thing I don't yet see in any of the models is a period of extended warm temperatures and sunshine. Seasonal temperatures/weather look to prevail for the next few weeks. However, I'm not seeing anything to indicate sub-freezing temps in our area.

Meanwhile, DST is only 4 weeks away from this Sunday morning, meaning an extra hour of afternoon sunshine that should warm things up nicely and provide for some evening rides after work. I look forward to the day when I see an IAH meteogram and high temps are above the red dashed line! Sunday looks too cold to bike.

[Ptarmigan]

However, the 1989 Arctic outbreak didn't start out with well above normal temps throughout Canada (as they are now).

It was very cold throughout Alaska and Canada at the time. They had recorded one of the highest air pressure on record.

[wxman57]

Current temps across central and northern Canada (and Alaska) are 10F-30F above normal.

[Belmer]

Current temps across central and northern Canada (and Alaska) are 10F-30F above normal.

Exactly, like I've mentioned a few times before on this page; without any bitterly cold below temps in Alaska and Western Canada, you can kiss our cold air goodbye for this winter! Temps in Alaska, especially around Fairbanks are having highs of 20-25 degrees. That's shorts and short sleeve weather to them! All the extremely cold is in Central and Eastern Canada which will drop down to about Northern parts of Oklahoma and Missouri, and slide Eastward. Very rare to get such an arctic outbreak when all the cold air is placed there.
I agree with your other post wxman57, no signs in the coming week of well above average temperatures and dry conditions. Besides maybe next Tuesday and Wednesday when highs get back in the mid 70s, with another cool front coming in around the Thursday time frame. So these upper 50s and low 60s for highs is perfect weather for me. Along with all this rain, because if we do end up having another drought this summer, we need to collect as much moisture in our ground and roots in the trees as possible.

Let's just hope for a cold 2012/2013. Just 10 months away...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It will be a cold '12/'13 ... bank on it.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is colder for this Sunday. With a low in the low-mid 30s and a high maybe in the 40s, I don't think I'll be out on my bike. Too bad the 2 coldest days of the next week fall on the only 2 days I'm off.

[redneckweather]

12Z GFS is colder for this Sunday. With a low in the low-mid 30s and a high maybe in the 40s, I don't think I'll be out on my bike. Too bad the 2 coldest days of the next week fall on the only 2 days I'm off.

Will that be with cloud cover and a north wind? If so then I don't see the high temps for Sunday straying too far at all from the low temps.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS is colder for this Sunday. With a low in the low-mid 30s and a high maybe in the 40s, I don't think I'll be out on my bike. Too bad the 2 coldest days of the next week fall on the only 2 days I'm off.

Will that be with cloud cover and a north wind? If so then I don't see the high temps for Sunday straying too far at all from the low temps.

The 12Z Euro trended 'colder'. With a chance of snow across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma, I smell some busting temps coming...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I could go for a good Winters Day with high in the upper 30s in Conroe.

Like my friend, Mr. Wxman57, I enjoy going for long runs in ideal weather.... in 20 and 30 degree weather.

[weatherguy425]

Both the GFS and Euro have trended drier with the passing disturbance on Saturday and Sunday. I'm assuming because models are seeing it as being weaker? This may also affect the amount of cold air entrenched through all of Texas including Houston.

[tireman4]

I could go for a good Winters Day with high in the upper 30s in Conroe.

Like my friend, Mr. Wxman57, I enjoy going for long runs in ideal weather.... in 20 and 30 degree weather.

Goodness yes. My 7:30 pace miles have been knocked down to a 7:15 pace for 7 miles with no effort. I love it. Bring on the cold, I say.

[wxman57]

Euro and to some extent the GFS going slower and deeper with next week's system. GFS delayed frontal passage 12-24 hrs and Euro is even slower, bringing another upper low across TX on Friday afternoon. They'll probably meet somewhere in between 3-4 days from the event (maybe Sunday). Could be another severe weather/heavy rainfall event for TX. Maybe some snow in the panhandle and across OK.

Euro has our low near 40 Sunday with a high in the upper 40s. That's cooler, by far, than any other day in its 10-day forecast. No indication of any freeze here for the next few weeks. I'm about 70-80% confident we've seen our last freeze (except for Conroe, which will probably see another 20 freezes since their thermometer is inside a freezer up there).

[srainhoutx]

Euro and to some extent the GFS going slower and deeper with next week's system. GFS delayed frontal passage 12-24 hrs and Euro is even slower, bringing another upper low across TX on Friday afternoon. They'll probably meet somewhere in between 3-4 days from the event (maybe Sunday). Could be another severe weather/heavy rainfall event for TX. Maybe some snow in the panhandle and across OK.

Euro has our low near 40 Sunday with a high in the upper 40s. That's cooler, by far, than any other day in its 10-day forecast. No indication of any freeze here for the next few weeks. I'm about 70-80% confident we've seen our last freeze (except for Conroe, which will probably see another 20 freezes since their thermometer is inside a freezer up there).

Better than IAH which no doubt has their thermometer right behind Runway-15L/33R that gets the jet blast at takeoffs.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro and to some extent the GFS going slower and deeper with next week's system. GFS delayed frontal passage 12-24 hrs and Euro is even slower, bringing another upper low across TX on Friday afternoon. They'll probably meet somewhere in between 3-4 days from the event (maybe Sunday). Could be another severe weather/heavy rainfall event for TX. Maybe some snow in the panhandle and across OK.

Euro has our low near 40 Sunday with a high in the upper 40s. That's cooler, by far, than any other day in its 10-day forecast. No indication of any freeze here for the next few weeks. I'm about 70-80% confident we've seen our last freeze (except for Conroe, which will probably see another 20 freezes since their thermometer is inside a freezer up there).

Conroe sits in a bowl where the official temp reading is at. I live by it. I leave my house on cold mornings, and it will be 24-25 at my house and 30-31 at I-45 (about a 10 minute drive). Temp Delta is usually a good 4-6 degrees if not more depending on the cold airmass.