April Weather Discussion.

[Ptarmigan]

FXUS64 KHGX 301525
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE OVER SE TX RESULTING IN A QUICK
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GPSMET DATA SHOWS PWS HAVE INCREASED
TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES. 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE 12-14C RANGE
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE WARM ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL JET RESULTING IN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING
THE LIGHT RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY TO MID AFTN. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT. 12Z
CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS SHOW A MONSTROUS CAP IN PLACE. 700 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS TEMPS OF +12C OVER OUR WRN ZONES WITH EVEN SHV AT +11C. COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER WEST TX AND WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF ANY
SFC BOUNDARY...THINK THE CAP WILL OVERCOME ANY POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO MATCH
LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE...MOSTLY 20S EXCEPT 30S OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD. WILL ONLY MENTION THUNDER OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD. WILL
UPDATE THE HWO TO REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD STILL GET VERY WARM THIS AFTN.

35

I rather call that monstrous cap the cockroach cap.

[weatherguy425]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC019-021-027-029-031-035-053-055-091-099-137-145-171-187-193-
209-217-259-265-267-271-281-287-293-299-307-309-319-325-327-331-
333-385-395-411-435-453-463-465-491-011400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0120.100501T0600Z-100501T1400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANDERA BASTROP BELL
BEXAR BLANCO BOSQUE
BURNET CALDWELL COMAL
CORYELL EDWARDS FALLS
GILLESPIE GUADALUPE HAMILTON
HAYS HILL KENDALL
KERR KIMBLE KINNEY
LAMPASAS LEE LIMESTONE
LLANO MASON MCCULLOCH
MCLENNAN MEDINA MENARD
MILAM MILLS REAL
ROBERTSON SAN SABA SUTTON
TRAVIS UVALDE VAL VERDE
WILLIAMSON

[sleetstorm]

Friday afternoon is potentially interesting, 'specially if 850 mb winds are from the South and not the SSW or SW



Some nice turning with height...



Just a guess, based on 700 mb RH fields, we may be near the edge of the cap of forged titanium coated steel, hammered and folded over a charcoal fire over and over again by a Japanese master. But we may be at the edge, not under, the cap. 850 r. humidities (trust me, you can't quite see them, 850 mb RH around 90%) suggest no cap there, anyway.

A cap made of titanium forged coated steel, hammered and folded over a charcoal fire over and over again by a Japanese master, Ed Mahmoud? That is a hilarious metaphor the way that you put it. Laughed silently to myself

[sleetstorm]

Where is the jedi master with his crystal light saber to kill the cockroach cap?

[Ptarmigan]

Where is the jedi master with his crystal light saber to kill the cockroach cap?

And a very good light sabre to ensue that the cockroach cap never comes back ever again.