March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

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Ptarmigan
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Above-Normal Tornado Amounts Expected in 2012
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... ed-1/61631

Could be another active tornado season.
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wxman57
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Ahh, now this is my kind of thread - MARCH! It even sounds warmer! I don't see any change in the current (or past) pattern into the first week or two of March. Fast-moving storm systems should continue, along with frequent periods of heavy rain. We've been discussing (at work) how the current pattern may be quite conducive to an active tornado season across the south.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I could go for 7-10 inches of rain in March and bust this drought all together. That would put us over 30 inches of rain since October.... :shock:
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srainhoutx
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Another interesting aspect regarding this persistent pattern of active weather that we have experienced since January is the strong probability that we will not see a heat ridge develop over Texas which will certainly be a change from what we have seen the past couple of years. March is the time I tend to start 'focusing' on the tropical season and what hints may be ahead. ENSO neutral years seem to always seem to have a trick or two up its sleeve regarding early season potential. But that will be for a later time and another topic.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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keep the heat away!!! I could go for another 2007 spring/summer
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Also of note is that we have gone ENSO neutral... hello El Nino later this year!

Should be a fun fall/winter of 2012-2013.
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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx wrote:Another interesting aspect regarding this persistent pattern of active weather that we have experienced since January is the strong probability that we will not see a heat ridge develop over Texas which will certainly be a change from what we have seen the past couple of years. March is the time I tend to start 'focusing' on the tropical season and what hints may be ahead. ENSO neutral years seem to always seem to have a trick or two up its sleeve regarding early season potential. But that will be for a later time and another topic.
Lastest ENSO Update
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f= ... =10#p32241

I think we are heading to Neutral sooner than expected. I would not be surprised if we see El Nino by late summer. If so, it would be the first time since 2009.
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Hey weather people!!

Can you give me an indication of the weather next week around Comstock, TX from 3/1 to 3/4? How accurate are these weather channel forecasts and NOAA site ones? I'm wishcasting COLD for that period for camping.
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Ptarmigan wrote:I think we are heading to Neutral sooner than expected. I would not be surprised if we see El Nino by late summer. If so, it would be the first time since 2009.
If that happens, what would that mean for hurricane season?
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srainhoutx
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niner21 wrote:Hey weather people!!

Can you give me an indication of the weather next week around Comstock, TX from 3/1 to 3/4? How accurate are these weather channel forecasts and NOAA site ones? I'm wishcasting COLD for that period for camping.
niner21, I moved your post to the March thread where we can answer that question a bit better. It does appear a cold front will pass late week, but not too cold as of this time for areas near Val Verde County...;)
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Ptarmigan
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sambucol wrote: If that happens, what would that mean for hurricane season?
El Nino creates westerly shear, which means less active hurricane season. However, there have been active seasons during El Nino, like 1969 and 2004.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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According to ENSO, we are already neutral and on our way to El Nino very quickly.
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Any idea about spring break week or is it too early. I did enjoy seeing the sun today :D
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Ptarmigan
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Looks to be a lamb. Of course anything can change.

Happy Leap Day! :mrgreen:
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:( man...this weather...no words right now. I need this lamb to morph into a lion pretty soon though.
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I really hope this dry trend doesn't keep up. GFS was insistent in developing a significant rain maker between the 8th and 10th, but the past two runs have backed off on that as well. Anyone have any positive information? :roll:
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Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

         ...FEBRUARY WAS WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL...

COLLEGE STATION TALLIED 9.30 INCHES OF RAIN DURING FEBRUARY AND
THIS IS THE SECOND WETTEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD. COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT REPORTED THIS MUCH RAIN IN A MONTH SINCE OCTOBER 2006. THE CITY
OF HOUSTON ALSO RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AND THE RAINFALL AT
THE AIRPORT TALLIED 5.98 INCHES WHICH IS THE 8TH WETTEST FEBRUARY
ON RECORD. THE CITY OF GALVESTON RECORDED ITS 6TH WETTEST FEBRUARY
ON RECORD WITH 7.32 INCHES OF RAIN. HOBBY AIRPORT RECORDED 6.81
INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE MONTH AND THIS IS ALSO THE 6TH WETTEST
FEBRUARY ON RECORD.

THE RAINFALL TOTALS IN 2012 STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2011. THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS RECORDED 11.05
INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS YEAR. HOUSTON DID NOT RECEIVE THIS MUCH
RAIN IN 2011 UNTIL SEPTEMBER 17TH. COLLEGE STATION HAS RECORDED
12.08 INCHES SINCE JANUARY 1 2012 AND THIS VALUE WAS NOT EXCEEDED
IN 2011 UNTIL SEPTEMBER 19TH. GALVESTON HAS RECEIVED 10.33 INCHES
OF RAIN IN 2012. GALVESTON DID NOT RECEIVE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN
2011 UNTIL SEPTEMBER 3RD.

FEBRUARY 2012 WAS RATHER STORMY WITH EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN. THE FIRST HAZARDOUS EVENT OCCURRED ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY
3RD. A TORNADO DEVELOPED NEAR SNOOK IN BURLESON COUNTY. THIS STORM
PRODUCED AN EF-2 RATED TORNADO. THE TORNADO DAMAGED SEVERAL
BUILDINGS AND TOSSED SEVERAL 18 WHEELERS WERE TOSSED ABOUT A 100
YARDS. THE STORM ALSO PRODUCED 2 1/4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL JUST NORTH
OF THE TEXAS A AND M CAMPUS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO ACCOMPANIED
THIS STORMS. COLLEGE STATION SET A DAILY RAINFALL RECORD ON THE 3RD
WITH 4.11 INCHES OF RAIN. OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SIX HOUR
PERIOD AND FLOODING WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF MADISON...
BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES AND WALKER COUNTIES. ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN
EVENT DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION ON THE 15TH.
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ON THIS DAY AND MORE FLOODING WAS
REPORTED FROM NAVASOTA TO HUNTSVILLE TO TRINITY. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENT DEVELOPED ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 18TH. THESE STORMS
PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. STRONG WINDS UPROOTED TREES
AND DOWNED POWER LINES IN AUSTIN...WASHINGTON AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES. THE STORMS ALSO PRODUCED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS PRODUCED FLOODING IN COLORADO AND GRIMES COUNTIES.

THE MONTH WAS ALSO WARMER THAN THE 30 YEAR NORMALS. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS ABOUT 3.0 TO 3.5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. ON FEBRUARY 23 AND AGAIN ON FEBRUARY 29...IN AN EFFORT OF
UNITY...ALL FOUR OF THE FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES ESTABLISHED NEW
OR TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. ALTHOUGH THE HEAT
IN FEBRUARY WAS NOT RECORD BREAKING...THE AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE WAS THE 17TH WARMEST AT GALVESTON AND 18TH WARMEST
FEBRUARY FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON. LOOKING AHEAD...PROBABILITIES
FAVOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS DRIER THAN THE 30 YEAR NORMALS.

HERE IS THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL DATA FOR FIRST AND
SECOND ORDER CLIMATE STATIONS:

SITE      AVG     AVG     AVG     DEP     RAIN     DEP
          HIGH    LOW     MONTH

IAH       67.7    52.4    60.1    +3.7    5.98     +2.78
HOU       67.4    53.7    60.6    +3.3    6.82     +3.61
CLL       66.2    49.7    57.9    +3.3    9.30     +6.45
GLS       65.6    55.5    60.6    +3.0    7.32     +4.75
CXO       66.1    48.4    57.3    +3.6    4.61     +1.35
UTS       65.7    48.6    57.2    +2.8    6.55     +3.49
PSX       67.3    53.4    60.4    +3.2    3.49     +1.14
LBX       66.8    52.9    59.9    +3.2    5.30     +2.36
SGR       67.9    52.5    60.2    +4.2    7.33     +4.11
LVJ       67.3    53.5    60.4    +3.6    5.28     +2.10
DWH       66.2    50.9    58.5    +3.4    3.83     +0.80
HGX       66.2    51.1    58.7    +2.6    5.73     +2.82

BELOW ARE SOME MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM OUR NETWORK OF CO-OP
OBSERVERS:

LOCATION         FEB       FEB          DEP
                 RAIN      NORMAL

ANAHUAC          5.89      3.21         +2.68
BAY CITY         4.78      2.69         +2.09
BELLVILLE        5.04      2.65         +2.39
BRENHAM          8.14      3.09         +5.05
COLUMBUS         4.27      2.88         +1.39
CLEVELAND       10.49      4.17         +6.32
CROCKETT         5.54      3.62         +1.92
DANEVANG         5.55      2.80         +2.75
EDNA             3.69      2.46         +1.23
EL CAMPO         4.43      2.68         +1.75
FREEPORT         7.23      2.79         +4.44
HOU WESTBURY     7.98      3.23         +4.75
KATY             6.89      3.11         +3.78
LIBERTY          8.01      4.18         +3.83
LIVINGSTON       6.31      3.92         +2.39
MADISONVILLE     5.66      3.28         +2.38
MATAGORDA        5.45      2.68         +2.77
NEW CANEY        7.28      3.62         +3.66
RICHMOND         7.51      3.02         +4.49
SOMERVILLE       6.64      2.91         +3.73
WASH ST PARK     8.57      2.83         +5.74
WHARTON          4.09      3.04         +1.05

$$
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=pns_2012 ... te_summary
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South_Texas_Storms
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weatherguy425 wrote:I really hope this dry trend doesn't keep up. GFS was insistent in developing a significant rain maker between the 8th and 10th, but the past two runs have backed off on that as well. Anyone have any positive information? :roll:
The GFS has been having some difficulty lately dealing with all of the energy out in the Pacific Ocean right now. Each run shows a different solution. I wouldn't lose hope for a good rain making system for much of Texas in the next 6-10 days yet.
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srainhoutx
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Next Friday into Saturday will be the time frame to monitor for Texas. We're still to far out for any real factual data, but the guidance does suggest after a cool weekend and warming temps next week, there may be a chance for a possible significant weather event around our part of the world. We will see.
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srainhoutx
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While this is certainly not for our part of the world, the first High Risk of the year has been issued by the SPC for parts of Tennessee, Indiana and Kentucky with large Moderate/Slight Risk areas as well mostly E of the Mississippi River...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
EXTREME SRN INDIANA...CENTRAL KY... AND NRN MIDDLE TN
...


...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FOR
MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS
...


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
...


--SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES--

...SYNOPSIS...
A 130 KT JET STREAK ALOFT NOW OVERSPREADING NW OK PER PROFILER PLOTS
WILL CONTINUE NEWD TO MO/IL/INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. A COUPLING OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA/DECREASING STATIC STABILITY AND DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE DEEPENING OF A
SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD FROM MO TO CENTRAL IL BY
MIDDAY...AND SRN LOWER MI BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE...AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGION. A
RESERVOIR OF L0W-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR AND S OF I-40
WILL SURGE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL NEWD EXPANSION OF THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME.

...TN/OH VALLEY REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THE INITIAL ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS NEAR STL /JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE/ WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD OVER CENTRAL
IL/INDIANA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS. THE MORE SERIOUS SEVERE STORM/TORNADO RISK WILL BEGIN TO
MATERIALIZE IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY. A BROKEN BAND
OF STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FARTHER E IN
THE UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND MOISTURE LIKEWISE
INCREASES...MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG AS FAR NE AS NRN
KY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR NEAR 70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.

THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MOIST
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW DISCRETE WARM
SECTOR SUPERCELLS / AND SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE ALONG THE
FRONT/...ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
EPISODE WITH A FEW LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PROBABLE
AREA FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE SE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IN
THE MORE ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR...OR NEAR AND S OF THE OH RIVER
FROM EXTREME SRN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KY/NRN MIDDLE TN. BOTH
PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE IN THE HIGH
RISK AREA...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD SPREAD AS FAR NE AS SW OH
AND WRN WV BEFORE EXITING THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...MS/AL/GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN A LITTLE S OF
THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW...AND THE STRONGEST LLJ CORE WILL
DEVELOP NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK AND SURFACE CYCLONE. STILL...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN IN ONE OR MORE BANDS OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. RISKS WILL INCLUDE A FEW
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
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