2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussions

[Ptarmigan]

There is a mid/upper level spin just N of the Yucatan this morning with the monsoonal trough extending ENE into the Bahamas. Some vorticity at the 850mb level may head toward Louisiana during the late weekend/early next week timeframe. We will see.

This should be interesting.

[Gene Norman]

Anyone else concerned about remnants of the Louisiana storms drifting into the very warm Northern Gulf and becoming "something". That's kinda the way Edouard formed back in '08 in early August. I remember; I was at an Astros game and had to bail...

[Rip76]

Gene,
What are the pressures looking like in the Gulf?
I don't have a quick link on my phone.

[wxman57]

Hotlink, could change.

But so far, CFS indicates Wx57 will be riding his bike a lot, and sipping Pina Colada's, and just making token appearances at the office.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/cfs.gif

Matter of fact, I've been taking all Fridays off lately and enjoying long weekends. Nice to not have to look over my shoulder all the time for potential development. I think we have at least until the 2nd week of August before we have to worry about any tropical activity.

[Gene Norman]

Here's the 5 pm Gulf pressures from buoys; we get this image every hour. I'll check it again at 8 to see if there's a 3 hour change:

bouy5.jpg

[Stormrider]

Gene, those showers offshore have my eye. Looks as if it has a nice little swirl. Things that make you go hmmm...

[srainhoutx]

7:00 PM Tropical Weather Discussion:

GULF OF MEXICO...
DESPITE SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR
26N94W...THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO IS IMPACTED BY AN AREA OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE NRN GULF COASTLINE.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N89W TO 27N92W. THE
COMBINATION OF THE UPPER AND LOWER TROUGHS IS SUPPORTING A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
89W-93W...COVERING MUCH OF SRN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE N OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-94W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS FAIRLY DRY SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR ALOFT
WRAPPING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR
18N94W...AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE
SUPPORTING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CUBA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SE GULF AND EXTREME SW GULF. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...EXCEPT NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE NRN GULF WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHER. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE NRN GULF. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
GULF...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE SRN GULF AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN APPROACHES THE
GULF.

[srainhoutx]

The latest Eurosip seasonal data suggest that we may see an up tick in activity in the Western Basin as we head toward late August/Early September. With a weak Nino developing, the chances of activity being more 'home grown' in nature in the Western Gulf/Bay of Campeche would tend to increase, IMO. I just do not see this being a MDR type of season with long tracking systems rolling off Africa heading W that we track for days on end. My hunch is for quicker developing systems much closer to home as we head toward peak season and possibly even into early October before the cold fronts become active and end any tropical threat for the NW Gulf. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT FOWEY
ROCKS FLORIDA...AND DOPPLER WEATHER DATA INDICATE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[jasons2k]

There have been some gusty winds in South Florida today with this system. It looks like it could head in this general direction and something to keep an eye on.

[TexasBreeze]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

This little system has a nice swirl to it.

[wxman57]

Obs indicate a 1020mb "low" south of Tallahassee. Should be moving inland in the next few hours.

[gocuse22]

Some models are latching on to something in early August

[Belmer]

Some models are latching on to something in early August

Yeah, it's the wave by the cape verde islands. Models have it near Puerto Rico by early next week. Thinking is it could be an East Coast issue. If it holds together by next week, I just don't see it making it in the Gulf. Will get pulled northward.

[srainhoutx]

On this day in SE Texas Hurricane history...

Surprise Hurricane. Without satellites, it wasn't until July 26th that the hurricane was known. With WWII well underway in 1943, there was a great deal of secrecy about the weather and it's impacts to be kept secret to avoid tipping our hand to the Axis that one of our primary fuel production facilities was being threatened. Radio traffic between ships was silenced to avoid giving away their locations to U-boats that could be operating in the Gulf which meant that weather reports from the ships traversing the Gulf of Mexico didn't make it to shore for forecasters to analyze. The storm slammed into Bolivar Peninsula then across Galveston Bay and finally up the Houston Ship Channel. Most sources agree that the hurricane was at least a strong category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. But at least three sites around the area reported wind gusts of 130 mph. The hurricane killed 19 people in the Houston region and caused more than 17 million dollars damage. The petrochemical plants around the region had no chance to shut down production and in the aftermath the loss of production in Deer Park and Baytown refineries impacted the American war effort with fuel shortages. Few official records of the weather concerning the hurricane can be found. Interestingly, this was the first hurricane to be probed by aircraft. Col. Joe Duckworth flew the very sturdy AT-6 Texan trainer aircraft into the hurricane to demonstrate the aircraft's ruggedness and the advantages of instrument flying. The storm weakened to a tropical storm as it moved through the Houston area and dissipated near College Station. Thanks to a local hurricane hunter of a different sort, Lew Fincher, for additional background in putting this together.

[gocuse22]

CMC showing something toward Puerto Rico

[wxman57]

CMC showing something toward Puerto Rico

That appears to be a disturbance that is currently over the west African coast.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is sniffing the wave currently in the Central Atlantic traversing the Caribbean with 850mb vorticity increasing in time as it moves into the NW Caribbean and finally making it onshore near Tampico. While the Caribbean remains hostile for development with way too much shear, conditions could improve in the NW Caribbean and Gulf in time and we are approaching that time of year where we'll need to monitor development potential in the Western Basin.

[Gene Norman]

Big model split tonight for 99L as there appear to be differing opinions as to the strength of the Big Bermuda High:

aal99_2012080100_track_early.png

Also interesting that persistence and climo models track Ernesto toward Central America. Right now, haven't seen any model take it to hurricane strength:

aal99_2012080100_intensity_early.png

Thoughts?

[Ptarmigan]

They won't tag this as 93L for another 2 or 3 days, but it looks like a tropical cyclone over land on loops.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

That storm over Africa looks better than some tropical storms I have seen.