2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussions

[biffb816]

I was just idly wondering the other day, based on (I think) an early GFS model from last week, if perhaps the models had picked up a Gulf originating storm. And that set me to wondering if there had ever been two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time. I tried the googles but found nothing. Anybody know? Is there even enough energy/space in the Gulf to support two storms at once?

[TexasBreeze]

As all eyes are on Issac, there is Kirk in open Atlantic and another developing mdr system...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Portastorm]

Good post, Ed. I agree completely with your thoughts and it seems like you've covered all the angles.

Hopefully we can play out the rest of the season without a major impact on the Texas coastline. Of course, all of us would welcome tropical storm rains of any sort ... but we can do without the Ritas/Ikes, et al.

[txflagwaver]

If this information was made available via television new/weather casts would folks have heeded the warning? I cannot remember seeing this anywhere...I found it through a facebook post

[wxman666]

If this information was made available via television new/weather casts would folks have heeded the warning? I cannot remember seeing this anywhere...I found it through a facebook post

If I'm not mistaken, I believe The Weather Channel actually broadcasted that.

[Belmer]

If this information was made available via television new/weather casts would folks have heeded the warning? I cannot remember seeing this anywhere...I found it through a facebook post

If I'm not mistaken, I believe The Weather Channel actually broadcasted that.

They did broadcast that image. I remember Norcross talking about it several times.
I'm sure it's not up anymore, but they also made a video about it on a video on weather.com

[Texas Pirate]

That information was blasted in several places.
Not to mention the NHC kept calling Isaac a "rain maker"

You asked if people would have heeded anyway?
Those that know they live practically UNDER THE SEA ala Sponge Bob and understand the landscape of
where they were living, left. Don't need a map to tell you twice. Those that are just
stubborn and thought they could "ride it through" got a wake up call.
Usually by the rising waters, and standing on their rooftops waiting for deliverance.

[srainhoutx]

I see the official count for named Tropical Storms for August tied the previous record of 8 set in 2004. That year was also an El Nino year. So much for a suppressed season since TD 13 formed today. My hunch is we'll see some potential for tropical troubles with a 'home grown' threat after the frontal boundary washes out next week. The Western Caribbean/Western Gulf is not closed for the year, IMO. We will see...

[sambucol]

I see the official count for named Tropical Storms for August tied the previous record of 8 set in 2004. That year was also an El Nino year. So much for a suppressed season since TD 13 formed today. My hunch is we'll see some potential for tropical troubles with a 'home grown' threat after the frontal boundary washes out next week. The Western Caribbean/Western Gulf is not closed for the year, IMO. We will see...

Are you seeing anything that would point to our area that would get a home grown visitor?

[djjordan]

Seems like the setup would be there next week to at least watch. Return flow off the gulf, a cool front washing out or heading back north, warm SST's .... Will be something to watch.

[skidog40]

looks to be entering gulf shortly

[TexasBreeze]

The little piece of Isaac already has a 10% yellow tag and it's still inland for now...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE ONCE IT MOVES OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[biggerbyte]

I've been watching the remnants of Isaac since he began to move out northward. It was obvious he was going to loop and get back into the Gulf. The question now is, what happens with the leftovers. We have a front coming down. If this system can interact with said front, it should pick up whatever this system becomes and sweep it NE. However, at this time, I do not think the front will make it off the Texas coast before either washing out, or moving back north. This poses a potential problem for some coastal areas of the GOM.

Just something to watch. Isaac is gone, but will he be reborn with another name?

Hmmm!

Stay Tuned.

[skidog40]

i would think this zombie storm would be more devastating if develops and then returns to land. x2

[skidog40]

why would nhc put a 10% chance on storm coming off land.

[Andrew]

why would nhc put a 10% chance on storm coming off land.

Well you have to remember when they put up a chance of development that means there is a chance of development in the next 48hours. So as a result in the next 48 hours there is a 10% chance of development because in 48 hours it should be in the gulf or close to it.

[skidog40]

why would nhc put a 10% chance on storm coming off land.

Well you have to remember when they put up a chance of development that means there is a chance of development in the next 48hours. So as a result in the next 48 hours there is a 10% chance of development because in 48 hours it should be in the gulf or close to it.

i was being a little sarcastic, whats your opinion of this storm? i think if a storm last this long it needs to be watched.

[srainhoutx]

I've been a bit tied up over the long Holiday Weekend with a minor health issue and had not followed the remnants of Isaac too closely. That said we've seen systems in the past develop into a tropical system from a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) Alicia in mid August 1983 was born from such a system. The closeness of the Upper Low of the Coast of S Florida and just how that feature exits to the NE will be a key tomorrow. We'll also have to monitor just how far offshore this disturbance develops and how quickly, if at all a surface circulation organizes tomorrow. Most guindance agrees that some low level spim begins to organize. Some closer to shore and others further S in the Eastern Half of the Gulf. The Upper Low is expected to lift NE into the Atlantic. The NHC did make it clear that a new name would be given, shoulf it develop. at all. We will see what the overnight brings and see if convection can get a bit more organized and a surface circulation can spin up near the MS/Al/SE LA Coustal Waters later tomorrow.

There are also indications via longer range guidance of more tropical troubled heading W in the next 7-10 days, so we'll need to continue to keep and eye on the tropics...

[biggerbyte]

Good to have you back, Srain. You and I seem to swap sick days.

Anyway! The next few days are certainly interesting.

[skidog40]

just made waterfall