April: Warm & Muggy To End The Month. Showers Monday?

[Ptarmigan]

April is around the corner. Could be a rainy start. What does April turn out to be? Could it be a dry one like last year or a stormy one. Only time will tell.

April is the cruelest month.
-T.S. Eliot, The Waste Land

April has had many well known disasters and tragic events.
Binghampton Massacre-April 3, 2009 13 Killed
Super Outbreak-April 3-4, 1974 319 Killed
Upper Big Branch Mine Disaster-April 5, 2010 29 Killed
Tupelo–Gainesville Tornado Outbreak-April 5-6, 1936 +436 Killed
Start Of Rwanadan Genocide-April 7, 1994 500,000-1,000,000 Killed
Civil War Ends-April 9, 1865 620,000 Killed
First Shot Fired In American Civil War-April 12, 1861 620,000 Killed
Titanic Disaster-April 14-15,1912 1,500 Killed
Texas City Explosion-April 16, 1947 600 Killed
Virginia Tech Massacre-April 16, 2007 32 Killed
San Francisco Earthquake-April 18, 1906 3,000-6,000 Killed
Waco Inferno-April 19, 1993 78 Killed
Oklahoma City Bombing-April 19, 1995 169 Killed
Ludlow Massacre-April 20, 1914 19-25 Killed
Columbine Massacre-April 20, 1999 13 Killed
Deepwater Horizon/Macondo Well Disaster-April 20, 2010 11 Killed
2011 Super Outbreak-April 25–28, 2011 358 Killed
Uireyong Massacre-April 26-27, 1982 57 Killed
Port Arthur Massacre-April 28-29, 1996 35 Killed
Tropical Cyclone 02B Makes Landfall On Bangladesh-April 29, 1991 140,000 Killed
Los Angeles Riot-April 29-May 4, 1992 53 Killed

Some of the worst disasters in American and world history occurred in April. Bold denotes weather and natural disaster.

[TexasMetBlake]

Yup. I cringe every singe time April comes around. It's also a month of strange behavior. For example, I remember VERY clearly that on April 7, 2007 when it snowed in the HOUSTON CWA and some portions of central Texas got over 3 inches.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is suggesting showers/storms approaching the area late Sunday...

[srainhoutx]

The guidance continues to advertise, although with some timing issues which is expected at this range, a rather deep Western trough developing early next week. With such a potent storm system and upper air pattern, we may need to monitor this a bit in the coming days for a rather strong frontal boundary and upper air disturbance increasing shower/storm chances as we begin the first full week of April. We will see.

SPC:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DIFFERENCES AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THIS FORECAST...AND
WHILE NOT AS EXTREME AS IN PRIOR DAYS...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
SUBSTANTIALLY COMPLICATED THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST -- PARTICULARLY
FROM DAY 6 /SUN 4-1/ ONWARD AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. LONG-WAVE RIDGE...DEEPENING A
BIT DAY 5 /SAT 3-31/ AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE ERN
CONUS. WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND
THE ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT...THE SYSTEM OVERALL DOES NOT
APPEAR POTENT ENOUGH TO DRIVE A MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

AS THE LARGE WRN TROUGH BEGINS EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER TO SOME DEGREE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...AND MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT OBVIOUSLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ON THE LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES --
WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A STRONG N-S COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN SWD
TO THE TX/LA BORDER AT THE START OF DAY 7...WHILE THE ECMWF DEPICTS
A FRONT AT THIS TIME STRETCHING SWWD FROM A LOW OVER IA SWWD ACROSS
SERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX.

WHILE A BROAD SCALE VIEW SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THE EJECTION OF SUCH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATION/STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM...THE ONGOING DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS PRECLUDE ANY SKILLFUL ATTEMPT AT HIGHLIGHTING
SMALLER-SCALE/CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS ATTM.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 5
/MON 4-2/ WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING OF THE EJECTING WRN SYSTEM...BUT
DEVIATIONS FROM DAY 6 /TUE 4-3/ ONWARD -- AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES
AREAS NEAR AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS -- RESULT IN FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER 2/3 OF THE PERIOD.

WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST DAY 4 /SUN 4-1/...PRIMARILY
NEAR A WARM FRONT INVOF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING
STILL IN PLACE WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM STILL OVER THE ROCKIES SUGGESTS
THAT ANY THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EXIST DAY 5...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY...AND REACHES A POSITION FROM
ROUGHLY THE UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS MO AND INTO E TX. WHILE
SOME THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS FAR N AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE
OZARKS SWD/SEWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
HERE...STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION LIKELY AND ASSOCIATED
THREATS FOR WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THREAT WILL
SPREAD EWD WITH TIME...POSSIBLY REACHING THE TN VALLEY AND AL DURING
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY 6...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED TO/OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY 6 PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AGAIN HOWEVER...WITH
MINOR DEVIATIONS IN MODEL SOLUTION EXPANDING DAY 6...WILL NOT
AREALLY HIGHLIGHT ANY THREAT AREAS WHICH MAY BE EVENTUALLY ADDED
NEAR/E OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LARGE-SCALE/PERSISTENT RIDGING
FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A LULL
IN CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY APPEARS
LIKELY -- AND THUS PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR CONFINED
TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/29/2012

[srainhoutx]

There remains some uncertainty regarding the timing of the front and just where the upper low will form and cut off, but it does appear showers/storms will increase on Monday and extend into Tuesday as the boundary sweeps S and E across Texas. Areas E of I-35 appear to be the favored areas for stronger storms, but a lot of uncertainty remains and the SPC has dropped mention of a Severe threat as the guidance just doesn't have a handle on the eventual placement or track of the U/L. We'll see what guidance offers later today and into the weekend as these cut off upper lows are difficult to forecast as we have seen over the past several months. That said I would be surprise to see a Slight Risk issued in the next day or two for a linear threat of severe storms forming and marching across E TX and extending to points N and E into the ARKLATX late Monday into Tuesday with heavy rainfall rates. We will see.

[niner21]

I don't think we need any more rain for about 2 weeks or so. The mold is thick and nothing has dried out since the last round. There's moss on everything that is shaded and the ground water is still heavy just about 12" down (the top crust was dry but definately not underneath).

Wettest March ever just to the west of me and we're damn near 50% of our annual average in 90 days. I'll take some dryness mixed in with rain. This damp dank sprinkle weather is BRUTAL for anything that has to do with work outside. Can't paint, can't do landscaping with equipment over a wheelbarrow in weight, can't brick very well, and can't put a grade on a lot.

When I walk outside I can just smell the musty mold stink. Smells like rotting wood.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise an active pattern for Monday afternoon/evening across parts of E Central TX extending into the overnight hours for SE TX. It is also noteworthy the 12Z NAM (4km WRF/NMM) are in some agreement with the GFS suggesting a robust upper air disturbance moving off the Lower Texas Coast early Monday morning with another possible MCS (mesoscale convective system or meso low) offshore of Galveston as the storms fire to our N and W with the approach of the frontal boundary/dry line...

[srainhoutx]

There still remains some disagreement via guidance on exactly when the frontal boundary/dry line will make its move S and E from Central Texas. The general trend via guidance has been to slow the progression of the boundary and Tuesday would appear to be the day that things ramp up, severe weather potential wise. My hunch is that this will be a daytime event during the afternoon/evening time frame on Tuesday extending into the over night hours. Folks in Central/SE Texas will need to monitor future updates as this upper low and associated storm potential may well affect areas along and E of the I-35 Corridor with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threat. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as well with the upper level dynamics and plentiful Gulf moisture available and heavy rainfall as well.

[srainhoutx]

The SPC is mentioning an area of convection developing in S and S Central TX later and some of the HIRES short range meso guidance is keying in on storms developing in Old Mexico and pushing E during the late afternoon/evening hours and perhaps skirting our southern areas overnight into tomorrow. The mid/upper level disturbance that was to our N yesterday has settled along the Middle Texas Coastal Region near Victoria and a short wave disturbance in Old Mexico moving crossing the Sierra Madre Oriental Range this morning that may provide a trigger for showers/storms to develop and a possible meso vortex system that some of the guidance bring into our region for Monday.

The better chance of storms still appears to be late in the day on Tuesday, but there remains some disagreement on exactly who will see the best chance of severe weather. My hunch still remains that areas along and E of the I-35 Corridor will be the 'best areas' for seeing slow moving storms with damaging winds and hail being the primary threat. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out and the setup does have some similarities to what we saw back on March 21-22. Capping will likely be an issue tomorrow with a SW flows aloft, but that should weaken during the day on Tuesday across the region with the slow approach of a potent upper low/trough and dry line. We will see...


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MON. SRN PART
OF WRN U.S. TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLNS AND OVER THE MS VLY. E OF THE
RIDGE...SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL ONT SHOULD AMPLIFY
SEWD...REACHING UPSTATE NY THIS EVE AND THE NJ CSTL WATERS BY 12Z
MON. IN TX...SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK UPR SYSTEM BEGINNING TO CLOSE
OFF OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. THIS FEATURE MARKS THE WRN END OF
POSITIVE TILT TROUGH THAT CROSSED THE SERN STATES ON SATURDAY...AND
SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STNRY OVER SE TX THROUGH EARLY MON.

AT LWR LVLS...ONT DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. THE AMPLIFYING SYSTEM ALSO WILL
STRENGTHEN/ACCELERATE EXISTING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO NRN OH/WRN PA BY
THIS EVE. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM FRONT WILL MOVE/REDEVELOP ENE
ACROSS THE OH VLY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A SUBSTANTIALLY
STRENGTHENED FRONTAL ZONE THAT BY LATE TNGT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TO THE MD-DE CST. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL
SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


...OH VLY LATER TODAY/TNGT...
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND PERHAPS THE EARLY
AFTN FROM ERN IL INTO IND...NRN KY...AND SRN MI/NRN OH...IN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT NE OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR AS
TO IF...WHERE...AND WHEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SFC-BASED IN
RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING. CURRENT VWP AND SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT
THROUGH DOWNWARD MIXING AND/OR SFC ADVECTION OF LOW 60S F SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE REALIZED NEWD INTO CNTRL IND AND PERHAPS THE SW
CORNER OF OH BY MID/LATE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THAT FAIRLY STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR AS 30-40 KT 700
MB FLOW EXPANDS PLAINS EML ESE ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...AT LEAST
SOME RISK WILL EXIST FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME
SFC-BASED...OR /MORE LIKELY/ FOR NEW STORMS TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT BY MORNING ACTIVITY.

WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE OH VLY TODAY AS ONT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD. CURRENT PROFILES /WITH MODERATE SPEEDS
AND SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE VERTICAL/ ALREADY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SUCH ACTIVITY INTO TNGT. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST REGARDING
STORM MODE AND THE LOCATION/S/ LIKELY TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
DISCRETE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...THE OVERALL SETUP APPEARS SUPPORTIVE
OF SCTD STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
TORNADOES. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATEST LATE
THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT FROM SRN IND E/SE INTO ERN KY...WRN WV
AND SW OH.

TIGHTENING FRONTAL ZONE AND STRENGTHENING FLOW SUGGEST THAT THE
STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A SWD-MOVING MCS...WITH ATTENDANT EMBEDDED
BOWING STRUCTURES POSSIBLY EXTENDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG
WIND/SVR HAIL INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY MON.

...UPR MS VLY...
850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE TNGT/EARLY MON OVER THE
UPR MS VLY AS SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF WRN STATES UPR TROUGH. THE STRONGEST
THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WHERE
SCTD STORMS MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CNTRL AND NRN MN. WHILE
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY FOSTER A FEW STORMS WITH SVR
HAIL...CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF UPR RIDGE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT BOTH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...AND THE RISK/COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL.

...SRN/ERN TX THIS AFTN/EVE...
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND
WILL EXIST INVOF UPR LOW NEAR THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. A SIMILAR
RISK WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM ALONG DRY LINE
SEGMENT OVER THE SRN HILL COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE VLY. WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. BUT VERY LARGE
BUOYANCY COULD YIELD ONE OR TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WIND.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/01/2012

[srainhoutx]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES ON
MONDAY. TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW TX NWD INTO WCNTRL OK. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A
WEAKENING CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DISTINCT DRYLINE IN WCNTRL TX
EXTENDING NWD TO A COLD FRONT IN WRN OK. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD ALSO TAKE PLACE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NW OK EXTENDING
NEWD INTO SRN KS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE NEAR ABILENE
AND BRADY TX AT 00Z SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS WITH MLCAPE OF
3000 TO 4500 J/KG AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM.
THIS ALONG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT STORMS. AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE EVENING.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NWRN OK AND SRN
KS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST THERE
MONDAY EVENING. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STEEP AS TO
THE SOUTH BUT THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCTION. THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE THE STORMS INTO A LINE. THIS FACTOR
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A GREATER
WIND DAMAGE THREAT THERE THAN IN AREAS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

...WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY
AS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FROM ERN MO NEWD INTO
ERN IA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH AND ALONG THE
AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN ERN MN AND WRN WI. THE STORMS SHOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS WI AND NRN IL MONDAY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MONDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW
MUCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND
30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL BUT THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 04/01/2012

[Ptarmigan]

Feels just like spring. South Texas has been getting hit by storms and they are southwest of us.

[Katdaddy]

Radar shows the MCV moving into SE TX


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 AM CDT MON APR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021016Z - 021245Z

POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS OVER
DISCUSSION AREA AS LONG-LASTING MCS...STRENGTHENING AFTER NEARLY
DISSIPATING NEAR CRP...GETS BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN.

10Z SFC THETAE AXIS WAS EVIDENT FROM NEAR BUOY 42002 AND OFFSHORE
STATION KVAF NWWD TO NEAR BYY...THEN BETWEEN CLL-AUS.
MCV...PRODUCED EARLIER WHEN TSTM COMPLEX WAS NEAR RIO GRANDE...WAS
EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS OVER MCMULLEN COUNTY...MOVING
ESEWD 10-15 KT. MEANWHILE...ANTECEDENT/MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
MAX WAS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER BURLESON COUNTY.
LATTER FEATURE WAS MOVING GENERALLY NWD...PERHAPS WITH SLGT NWWD
SHIFT RELATED TO NEARBY CONVECTIVE/MCV INFLUENCE. PREVAILING
CYCLONIC MEAN WIND AROUND MID-UPPER PERTURBATION...COMBINED WITH
FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL TENDENCY OF MCS INTO THETAE MAX...MAY LEAD TO
FURTHER NEWD CURVATURE OF MCS TRANSLATION THAN ALREADY INDICATED
OVER MATAGORDA BAY REGION. CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO VERY
MOIST AND FAVORABLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...BUT WITH WEAK DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS REFLECT STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRESENT IN 00Z BRO/CRP RAOBS...WITH LOW-70S F SFC DEW POINTS
CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVELY SFC-BASED INFLOW AND MLCAPE 1500-2500
J/KG. ORGANIZED SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF 1)
BOUNDARY-LAYER EVAPORATION/ACCELERATION POTENTIAL...AND 2) MORE
ROBUST MIDLEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...PRECIP LOADING...POSSIBLE
REAR-INFLOW JET FORMATION...AND SMALL-SCALE LEWP/BOW FEATURES MAY
ENHANCE WIND THREAT LOCALLY.

..EDWARDS.. 04/02/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Band of showers and thunderstorms bowing into the region this morning from the southwest as yet another poorly forecasted disturbance moved out of Mexico and across S TX overnight. This feature resulted in the formation of a MCS (mesoscale convective system or thunderstorm complex) which is currently extending from near Columbus to Needville to Freeport and bow ENE at 25-35mph. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds to 50-55mph are likely with the leading edge of the line. Interestingly the 06Z Texas Tech meso model does not even show this complex while the 00Z 4km WRF shows the system acting pretty close to what is happening this morning. Neither model show any additional development this afternoon behind the system, but once the clouds clear, the air mass will become increasingly unstable and cannot rule out a few storms especially north and east counties late today ahead/east side of NE moving mid level circulation noted near KCLL this morning.



Attention then turns out west again tonight as additional disturbances move out of the western US. May see another MCS form tonight in the higher terrain of NE Mexico or west TX and move across the region…although none of the guidance is overly impressive with convective trends, but they have not been. Feel the combination of increasingly diffluent upper air flow on the eastern side of an upper level trough moving into the plains, a central TX dryline and approaching late day frontal boundary along with a juicy (unstable) air mass should support some sort of thunderstorm development across the region Tuesday-Tuesday night. Meso scale feature continue to drive the local weather pattern and the timing of such small scale feature has been and will continue to be difficult.



Upper trough will move east of the region Wednesday ending rain chances for the rest of the week. Moisture will slowly begin to return to the region by Friday into next weekend as the upper flow becomes increasingly southwesterly with again the threat for upper air disturbances moving out of Mexico producing cluster/complexes of thunderstorms.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
728 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

TXC039-167-201-021245-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-120402T1245Z/
HARRIS TX-BRAZORIA TX-GALVESTON TX-
728 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR GALVESTON...BRAZORIA AND HARRIS COUNTIES...

AT 723 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PEARLAND
TO LA MARQUE TO GALVESTON STATE PARK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
PEARLAND TO LA MARQUE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HITCHCOCK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TIKI
ISLAND...TEXAS CITY...WEBSTER...NASSAU BAY...ELLINGTON FIELD...
BACLIFF...KEMAH...SCHLITTERBAHN...MOODY GARDENS...CLEAR LAKE
SHORES...SAN LEON...JOHNSON SPACE CENTER...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...EL
LAGO...SEABROOK...PASADENA...GALVESTON...PELICAN ISLAND...DEER
PARK...SHOREACRES...PORT BOLIVAR...MORGAN`S POINT AND LA PORTE

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT MON APR 02 2012

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A LARGE PART OF TX N AND
NE INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX UPR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL LARGELY TIED TO UPR SYSTEM NOW CLOSING OFF NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS. THE LOW SHOULD ELONGATE W-E AS IT DRIFTS ESE ACROSS NM
LATER TODAY/TNGT. ONE OF THE RESULTING VORT LOBES ALREADY IS
BECOMING APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM OVER SRN NM. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PIVOT NNE ACROSS W TX LATER TODAY...AND NWD ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE TNGT...AS UPSTREAM LOBE MOVES S ACROSS AZ.

SE OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOW...VWP AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT A
FAIRLY BROAD MCV HAS EVOLVED OVER S CNTRL/SE TX FROM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT CROSSED THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALSO LINGERING IN THE
AREA IS REMNANT OF THE SMALL UPR LVL CIRCULATION THAT FORMED OVER
THE TX GULF CST YESTERDAY. THE COMBINED CIRCULATIONS SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY NNE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF E TX AND LA/AR LATER
TODAY/TNGT AS THEY BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING MID/UPR LVL
FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FOUR CORNERS LOW.

FARTHER N...NRN PART OF TROUGH THAT GAVE BIRTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK E ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE PERSISTS FROM THE ERN GULF CST TO THE UPR GRT LKS. EWD MOTION
OF THE MT/DAKOTAS IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN STEADY EWD ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN WI TO CNTRL MO BY 12Z TUE. A
MORE COMPLEX SFC EVOLUTION LIKELY WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN PLNS.
APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED NM VORT LOBE SHOULD DRIVE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE E/NE ACROSS W CNTRL TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTN...WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REMAINS QSTNRY NEAR AMA. FARTHER
S...COLD POOL FROM OVERNIGHT S TX MCS LIKELY WILL HAVE SOME
LINGERING INFLUENCE ON LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT PATTERNS FROM S
CNTRL TX NEWD INTO LA.

...W TX NNE INTO WRN/CNTRL KS AND SE NEB THIS AFTN/EVE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SVR
STORMS ALONG AN ARC FROM W CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK...SW KS...N
CNTRL KS...AND SE NEB LATER TODAY AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF MERGING DRY LINE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

EVOLUTION OF STORMS AND THEIR ATTENDANT SVR THREATS WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE VARIABLE WIND FIELDS THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH SPACE AND TIME AS NM VORT LOBE PIVOTS NE ACROSS
REGION. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF
DEEPLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL EXIST FROM WRN N TX N AND NNW
THROUGH WRN OK INTO SW KS LATE THIS AFTN. EARLY PASSAGE OF THE VORT
LOBE IN TX ADDS A FURTHER COMPLICATION TO THE SITUATION. BUT
OVERALL COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT...STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 2500-3500 J PER
KG/...AND WIND PROFILES THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO YIELD A SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT
NONETHELESS.

LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT SVR RISK...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL
ALSO WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN SW KS AND WRN OK WHERE
LOW LVL WINDS ARE APT TO REMAIN BACKED NE OF TX PANHANDLE SFC LOW.
FARTHER N...MORE SLOWLY-MOVING PORTION OF COLD FRONT IN NRN KS AND
SE NEB SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. THE
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO TWO OR THREE CLUSTERS THIS EVE...WITH A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND WIND.

...E TX INTO MUCH OF LA/AR LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE...
SFC HEATING OF MOIST ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM FROM S TX MCV WILL LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF E TX...LA...AND AR LATER
TODAY...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 /KG. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE N TO NE-MOVING CIRCULATION SHOULD FOSTER
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN
COMPARATIVELY MODEST /AROUND 30 KTS/...SETUP COULD YIELD SCTD STRONG
TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE STORM
INTERACTIONS AND/OR SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN EXPECTED STORM
CLUSTERS/BANDS...A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR WEAK
TORNADOES.

...ERN KY/TN INTO WRN NC/SC/ERN GA THIS AFTN...
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROUGH THAT AMPLIFIED OVER THE NERN U.S.
LATE YESTERDAY SHOULD ADVANCE S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CAROLINAS TODAY...WHILE WRN PORTION BECOMES STNRY OVER THE LWR OH
VLY. WEAK TO MODERATE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND
S OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED FROM ERN KY SSE INTO
SC. MODERATE NWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SHOULD YIELD MAINLY PULSE
STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/ISOLD DMGG
GUSTS.

...MN/IA INTO WI/IL/IND THROUGH PERIOD...
MOST OF THE UPR MS VLY/UPR MIDWEST WILL REMAIN BENEATH UPR RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODIC EPISODES OF ENHANCED WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROUNDS OF ELEVATED STORMS... ESPECIALLY
LATE TNGT/EARLY TUE AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
REGION. WHILE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL...MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/02/2012

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
828 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

TXZ200-213-214-238-021430-
CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-LIBERTY-
828 AM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 822 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 15 MILES SOUTH OF
LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALLISVILLE...OAK
ISLAND...MOSS HILL...HANKAMER...GILCHRIST...LIBERTY...KENEFICK...
HARDIN...DEVERS...DAYTON LAKES...DAYTON AND COVE.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Beaumont/Port Arthur/Lake Charles, heads up. This MCS is racing ENE in your direction with gusty winds and frequent CG lightening.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF/NMM is suggesting an impressive blow up of convection overnight W Central TX spreading E tomorrow across Central/SE TX. I suspect we'll see another Slight Risk issued for tomorrow for the region with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threat. We still cannot rule out a possible tornado or two and the possibility of super cells developing out ahead of the dry line as the squall line marches E during peak heating. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Advisory for Liberty, Polk and San Jacinto Counties