May: Slight Risk Severe Storms Thursday To End The Month

[Katdaddy]

May is fast approaching. Will bring more severe weather and rainfall? We shall see.

[weatherguy425]

Really not liking this "rut" of a pattern we're in. GFS doesn't see any big rain-making system in the near future either. Guess all we can hope for is a rogue MCS or associated outflow from storms over northern Mexico to fire off storms locally. Really hope we don't erase all of the progress we made this winter in getting red of this drought.

[TexasBreeze]

The upper high seems to want to park over/around TX too so far with discussions of it being around later next week too. Not a good sign.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

May: Welcome to the beginning of 5 months of nasty, humid HELL!

[wxman57]

I just wanted to mention that I really love the title of this thread. Warms my heart, so to speak. No more talk of nasty cold weather for the next 4 1/2 - 5 months.

The pattern I'm seeing is definitely different from last spring/summer. More onshore flow, afternoon showers/storms and less 100 deg days this summer.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I just wanted to mention that I really love the title of this thread. Warms my heart, so to speak. No more talk of nasty cold weather for the next 4 1/2 - 5 months.

The pattern I'm seeing is definitely different from last spring/summer. More onshore flow, afternoon showers/storms and less 100 deg days this summer.

Well at least we have that. I really abhor Summer, unless I'm on vacation at the Beach.

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Weak short wave that moved out of Mexico yesterday evening now crossing central TX.



Complex of thunderstorms that developed over the Rio Grande plains late yesterday has weaken into a few showers SE of San Antonio early this morning. Meso models have handled this feature modestly well and both the radar and satellite presentation of the shortwave remain impressive. Lack of current activity near this feature is a result of mid level capping over the region and unfavorable downstream instability. Meso models show little in the way of additional development as this feature moves across the region today, but it is hard to ignore such a well defined circulation on the radar. With heating this morning and weak forcing from this disturbance this could be enough to break the capping in place allowing showers/thunderstorms to develop. One big negative factor remains the lack of any surface boundary as overnight convection has failed to produce any major well defined outflow boundary in the surface or radar observations over central or SC TX. Will keep a close watch on radar trends this morning into the early afternoon to see if this feature is able to produce more showers and thunderstorms than currently forecast.



Otherwise, without any additional surprises coming out of observational sparse Mexico over the next few days, a warm and humid weather pattern will continue with weakening onshore flow. Lows will bottom out in the muggy 70’s with highs warming into the mid to upper 80’s. Southern Gulf upper ridging may build slightly northward late in the week into the weekend with highs pushing toward 90. Beyond today rain chances look to be less than 20% and mainly the fast moving small showers advancing inland off the western Gulf. Rain chances might increase slightly toward the weekend, but this is dependent on the positioning of the southern Gulf ridging and advancement of deep troughing along the US NW coastline.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is sniffing some development later today as well...

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update:

...SERN TX TODAY...

A WELL-DEFINED MCV SE OF AUS WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY...LIKELY
SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
MODIFICATION OF 12Z CRP SOUNDING FOR FORECAST AFTERNOON SURFACE
CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CURRENT CRP VWP SHOWS THE
PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH MAY PROMOTE A FEW
ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

[jasons2k]

Let's try the reverse-psychology ploy again:

Fuhgetaboutit!! The cap is back!

[srainhoutx]

I just wanted to mention that I really love the title of this thread. Warms my heart, so to speak. No more talk of nasty cold weather for the next 4 1/2 - 5 months.

The pattern I'm seeing is definitely different from last spring/summer. More onshore flow, afternoon showers/storms and less 100 deg days this summer.

Noticeable difference tonight as the TUTT and that tropical Gulf air heads inland. Last year we couldn't buy a cloud...

[Ptarmigan]

Noticeable difference tonight as the TUTT and that tropical Gulf air heads inland. Last year we couldn't buy a cloud...

I rather have that over any drought.

[srainhoutx]

While we are in the midst of a quiet pattern where the capping has been rather stout and rain has been almost non existent, there is a change beginning to show up via guidance for next week. A push of deep rich tropical moisture will be working its way W and a trough/frontal boundary digs SE across the Plains and could set the stage for several days of sorely needed rainfall across the Lone Star State with ‘cooler temps’ as well. There is even a hint of a tropical disturbance in the longer range working its way NW from the Caribbean. My hunch is the doldrums in the weather department may begin to ease as we head into the second week of May. We will see.

[Ptarmigan]

While we are in the midst of a quiet pattern where the capping has been rather stout and rain has been almost non existent, there is a change beginning to show up via guidance for next week. A push of deep rich tropical moisture will be working its way W and a trough/frontal boundary digs SE across the Plains and could set the stage for several days of sorely needed rainfall across the Lone Star State with ‘cooler temps’ as well. There is even a hint of a tropical disturbance in the longer range working its way NW from the Caribbean. My hunch is the doldrums in the weather department may begin to ease as we head into the second week of May. We will see.

I looked at past dry Aprils and noticed some of the Mays were wet like in 1983 and 1989. 1983 and 1984 had dry Aprils.

[weatherrabbit]

both 1983 and 1989 had tropical action for the upper coast...alicia '83...allison in june,chantal in aug and jerry in oct.
so maybe we have fun and games( hopefully nothing really bad) in the tropical department if history holds serve.

[srainhoutx]

I still like our rain chances for next week. It's been a while since we've seen a deep cut off upper low to our W near the Baja Region. While the models are different in handling the speed and location of the U/L further N near the Great Lakes, a stalled boundary across Texas in May can produce some significant rainfall. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Quite upper air pattern remains over the state prolonging the current dry period.



Water vapor images and upper air analysis this morning showing ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico and off the SE US coast with a trough axis from the Mississippi Valley into the SE Gulf of Mexico with active thunderstorms. An upper level low is starting to eject NE out of the Baja region toward the SW US along the NW side of the western Gulf of Mexico ridge. Dryline remains anchored well west of our region over far west TX and this is where it will remain for the next several days. Air mass over the region is moist at the surface and fairly dry in the mid and upper levels compared with points to our east where deep tropical moisture has surged inland. Lack of a surface focus, dry air aloft, and mid level capping will keep rain chances low for the next 3-5 days.



Ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico will build NE into TX and along much of the Gulf coast over the next few days allowing heights to increase and then a resultant increase in surface temperatures. BUSH IAH broke 90 degrees yesterday for the first time in 2012 (91) and suspect that additional 90 degree days will occur today-Sunday with increased heights and temperatures aloft. Combination of warm afternoon temperatures and high dewpoints will result in hot and humid afternoons and sticky mornings through the weekend. A couple of isolated light showers may be possible at any time under the mid level cap moving inland off the Gulf of Mexico…but this chance is remote and measurable rainfall is not likely.



Extended finally does feature a pattern change to a potentially more wetter and slightly cooler period. A deep upper level trough will move out of the western US late this weekend toward the Midwest by the middle of next week and this system appears strong enough to push a cool front southward into TX by the middle to end of next week as ridging over the area weakens. At the same time another low is forecast to develop in the region of Baja and potentially approach the region from the SW. Timing of both of these features remains in question along with how far south the potential surface front will get…it is starting to get late for cool fronts this far south…and we are talking over a week out so there will be some changes in the forecast, but at this point rain chances appear to be possibly increasing for this period of time.



Note: The 91 yesterday at IAH is right about on average for the first 90 degree day (May 7 is average). Last year we hit 90 by April 8, so while we have been warm for the last several months, we are not nearly as warm as last year thanks mainly to a moist ground and “green” vegetataion.

[rnmm]

I would love to see rain!! Hopefully it will help keep the temps in check but most importantly keep wildfires away. Last summer was terrifying with so many fires!!

[srainhoutx]

It still appears rain chances will increase beginning late Sunday extending into the middle part of next week as a deep cut upper low drops into the Four Corners Region that meanders E and stalled Pacific boundary drapes across the Lone Star State. The sub tropical jet looks to become active with multiple short wave impulses riding along the upper SW flow from the Eastern Pacific that could provide for several days of showers/storms to develop. As I mentioned several days ago, some deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean will begin to enter the Gulf later next week as well, so our quiet benign weather pattern may be trending to that of a bit wetter scenario. We will see.