EPAC Season 2012: Late September/October Development

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH NO DISTINCT PATTERN...AND THEY ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER
THAT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. MICROWAVE DATA HAS SUGGESTED
THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...BUT
UNTIL WE GET SOME ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE
BEING MADE. DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
T2.0...AND THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH A LONG-TERM MOTION OF 270/7 KT
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...BUT THE HIGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO BY FRIDAY WHEN
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...AND THE NEW
FORECAST LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...
THE MODELS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN USUAL...ESPECIALLY AT 72
AND 96 HOURS...AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL RECURVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE
THE CONVECTION HAS NOT YET COALESCED AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INCREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES SHOWN BY THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT
12 HOURS...WITH SHIPS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS SOLUTION AT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 9.2N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 9.6N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 11.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 12.9N 105.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 19.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 21 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL70
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A ALBERTO
C. 22/1500Z
D. 33.5N 74.3W
E. 22/1700Z TO 22/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 13.5N 105.5W FOR 23/1800Z.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting runs of the tropical intensity models and the 12Z Euro. The 12Z GFS moves a future Bud inland along the Mexican Riviera while the Euro suggests an abrupt turn SW as the storm approaches the Coast.

[srainhoutx]

TS Bud appears to have strengthen overnight and may well be on the way to some rapid intensification over the next day or two. The official track brings Bud near the Mexican Coast before stalling and even turning it back to the WSW. The HWRF and GFDL suggest otherwise. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Bud is getting its act together this evening...RECON is scheduled to make a pass or two tomorrow for a look see as well...

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  24 MAY 2012    Time :   131500 UTC
      Lat :   15:22:27 N     Lon :  106:57:46 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.2 / 965.2mb/ 94.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.2     6.3     6.5

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

 Center Temp :  +7.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION 

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC  
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   80km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.7 degrees 

[Ptarmigan]

I think Bud is going to be a major hurricane. When I see a hurricane image like that, I know it is going to be rapidly intensifying.

[srainhoutx]

RECON is currently enroute over Old Mexico and should arrive around 2:00 PM CDT. I suspect that Bud is much stronger than some had thought and it appears to have felt the tug of the trough and moving a bit faster to the NE toward the Mexican Riviera.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 02E in 2012
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 19:17:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°08'N 106°28'W (16.1333N 106.4667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 323 miles (520 km) to the SSW (195°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,796m (9,173ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 108kts (From the SE at ~ 124.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 210° to 30° (SSW to NNE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SW (225°) from the flight level center

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Bud become a Major CAT 3 annular cyclone as of the latest advisory. Landfall as a possible CAT 2 is expected near where Huricane Jova made landfall last Fall along the SW Mexican Coast sometime late tomorrow.

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM
TAFB...T5.5/102 KT FROM SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING T5.7/107 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS FINAL OUTBOUND LEG
OBSERVED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. SFMR SURFACE WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 85
KT...WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT USING THE STANDARD
90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOME
NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO AND ELONGATION OF THE EYE...AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 24/2229Z TRMM
OVERPASS INDICATED A CIRCULAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 NMI DIAMETER.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...
THERE IS LIKELY ENOUGH CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN AT LEAST 85 PERCENT
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH SUPPORTS MAKING BUD A 100-KT
MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030 DEGREES AT 9 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO ITS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BUD
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-30
HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE
GFS AND THE REGIONAL MODELS TAKING BUD INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE THE
ECMWF AND UKMET BRING THE EXPECTED REMNANTS OF BUD BACK OVER WATER
BY 48-72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF BUD TO DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...WITH THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BY
TURNING BUD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.

BUD HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE
BY 12 HOURS OR SO AS MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR IMPINGE ON THE SMALL INNER CORE OF THIS ANNULAR HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. FASTER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 3-4...
IF NOT SOONER.

GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 105.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif

[srainhoutx]

The Euro is suggesting TC development near the Gulf of Tehuanepec in the medium to longer range. TC genesis guidance is rather bullish on development within that region as well.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

WRN NORTH AMERICAN HEMISPHERE TROPICS CONT TO BE BASICALLY
INACTIVE AT THIS TIME AS SEEN BY CHI VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES
INDICATING UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THIS MAY WELL CHANGE IN A WEEK
TO 10 DAYS AS INDICES SHOW AN INCREASE AS THE SOUTH AMERICAN
MONSOON ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH BETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN CARRIBEAN AND
ESPECIALLY THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WHICH IS TYPICAL JUNE
CLIMATOLOGY. LONGER TERM RUNS OF GFS CONT TO SHOW AN INCREASE OF
DEEP SERLY FLOW THRU THE WRN CARRIBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A RETURN OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG 10N AT H850 PRODUCING A
MORE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ALSO INCREASING MORE
FAVORABLE LONGER TERM TROPICAL EAST PAC CONDITIONS.

[srainhoutx]

Guidance continues to advertise TC genesis near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the 7-10 day range. There are indications that the MJO will be more favorable in this time frame and the HPC suggests Chi forecast are condusive for tropical formation during the end of June as well...

[srainhoutx]

Oh my....

[srainhoutx]

The GFS as well as the HPC are suggesting things may well become active across the EPAC...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
352 AM EDT FRI JUN 08 2012

VALID 12Z TUE JUN 12 2012 - 12Z FRI JUN 15 2012

POSITIVE 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA WITH
BUILDING RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO RENEWED WESTERN TROUGHING LATE NEXT WEEK. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH RESIDUAL ENERGY ALOFT
LINGERING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. A FAVORABLY-PLACED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO A COUPLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ATTEMPTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT
WEEK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE SUNY-ALBANY/ROUNDY TROPICAL CYCLONE
PROBABILITIES DURING LATE MAY. FOR THE MOST PART...THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHARE THESE IDEAS. THE 00Z
CANADIAN WAS A STRONG OUTLIER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE
00Z GFS SHOWED THE WEAKEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THIS AREA. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...USED A 40/30/30 COMPROMISE OF THE
00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE USING A 50/50
BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THEREAFTER TO DEAL WITH
UNCERTAINTIES NEAR THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

ROTH

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

Two new INVEST features in the EPAC...94E offshore of Costa Rica and 95E W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec...right on cue, the monsoonal trough is responding to the approaching MJO pulse...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a rapidly developing 94E making landfall near the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Friday/Saturday...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS
LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN