EPAC Season 2012: Late September/October Development

[srainhoutx]

90E and now 91E have been classified

[unome]

Special TWO & orange circle up http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

models in google maps http://www.tropicaleastpacific.com/mode ... atestrun=1


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121433
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012


FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

[srainhoutx]

90E...

[srainhoutx]

There has been some speculation about a disturbance spinning up near the Yucatan in the longer range as the monsoonal trough become very active across Central America. The 12Z GFS now shows this feature in the EPAC where the Euro Ensembles have been sniffing development that past couple of days. Both models suggest some Pacific moisture will be thrown NE into the Bay of Campeche/Western Caribbean. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

Future 92E...?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Canadian finally is sniffing development in the EPAC as well...

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro suggests a future 92E will become a Hurricane...

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Depression 01E has formed well West of the Mexican Coast...

[unome]

92E is currently given an 80% chance

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202337
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

92E has the potential to be a major cyclone. The GFS and Euro are very agressive developing a potent Hurricane approaching the Mexican Coast later in the week toward Memorial Day Weekend.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WITH NO DISTINCT PATTERN...AND THEY ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER
THAT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. MICROWAVE DATA HAS SUGGESTED
THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...BUT
UNTIL WE GET SOME ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE
BEING MADE. DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
T2.0...AND THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH A LONG-TERM MOTION OF 270/7 KT
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...BUT THE HIGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
REPLACED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO BY FRIDAY WHEN
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...AND THE NEW
FORECAST LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...
THE MODELS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN USUAL...ESPECIALLY AT 72
AND 96 HOURS...AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEPRESSION
WILL RECURVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE
THE CONVECTION HAS NOT YET COALESCED AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INCREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
INTENSITIES SHOWN BY THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT
12 HOURS...WITH SHIPS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS SOLUTION AT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS AT
THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 9.2N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 9.6N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 11.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 12.9N 105.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 19.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 21 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL70
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A ALBERTO
C. 22/1500Z
D. 33.5N 74.3W
E. 22/1700Z TO 22/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E NEAR 13.5N 105.5W FOR 23/1800Z.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting runs of the tropical intensity models and the 12Z Euro. The 12Z GFS moves a future Bud inland along the Mexican Riviera while the Euro suggests an abrupt turn SW as the storm approaches the Coast.

[srainhoutx]

TS Bud appears to have strengthen overnight and may well be on the way to some rapid intensification over the next day or two. The official track brings Bud near the Mexican Coast before stalling and even turning it back to the WSW. The HWRF and GFDL suggest otherwise. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Bud is getting its act together this evening...RECON is scheduled to make a pass or two tomorrow for a look see as well...

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  24 MAY 2012    Time :   131500 UTC
      Lat :   15:22:27 N     Lon :  106:57:46 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.2 / 965.2mb/ 94.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.2     6.3     6.5

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

 Center Temp :  +7.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION 

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC  
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr 
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   80km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.7 degrees 

[Ptarmigan]

I think Bud is going to be a major hurricane. When I see a hurricane image like that, I know it is going to be rapidly intensifying.

[srainhoutx]

RECON is currently enroute over Old Mexico and should arrive around 2:00 PM CDT. I suspect that Bud is much stronger than some had thought and it appears to have felt the tug of the trough and moving a bit faster to the NE toward the Mexican Riviera.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 02E in 2012
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 19:17:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°08'N 106°28'W (16.1333N 106.4667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 323 miles (520 km) to the SSW (195°) from Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,796m (9,173ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 108kts (From the SE at ~ 124.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 210° to 30° (SSW to NNE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:12:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SW (225°) from the flight level center

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Bud become a Major CAT 3 annular cyclone as of the latest advisory. Landfall as a possible CAT 2 is expected near where Huricane Jova made landfall last Fall along the SW Mexican Coast sometime late tomorrow.

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM
TAFB...T5.5/102 KT FROM SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING T5.7/107 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS FINAL OUTBOUND LEG
OBSERVED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. SFMR SURFACE WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 85
KT...WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT USING THE STANDARD
90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOME
NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO AND ELONGATION OF THE EYE...AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 24/2229Z TRMM
OVERPASS INDICATED A CIRCULAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 NMI DIAMETER.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...
THERE IS LIKELY ENOUGH CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN AT LEAST 85 PERCENT
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH SUPPORTS MAKING BUD A 100-KT
MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030 DEGREES AT 9 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO ITS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BUD
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-30
HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE
GFS AND THE REGIONAL MODELS TAKING BUD INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE THE
ECMWF AND UKMET BRING THE EXPECTED REMNANTS OF BUD BACK OVER WATER
BY 48-72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF BUD TO DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...WITH THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BY
TURNING BUD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.

BUD HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE
BY 12 HOURS OR SO AS MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR IMPINGE ON THE SMALL INNER CORE OF THIS ANNULAR HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. FASTER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 3-4...
IF NOT SOONER.

GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 105.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif