EPAC Season 2012: Late September/October Development

[srainhoutx]

RECON has been tasked to take a look see at 94E...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT WED JUN 132012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX OF A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
HURRICANE AT 15/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 95.5W

[srainhoutx]

12Z Tracks & Intensity Guidance

[srainhoutx]

Convection is beginning to increase near the 'center' of 94E. Upper level anticyclonic conditions are improving as well. I suspect we will see the NHC increase chances of development later today.

[Ptarmigan]

The East Pacific cloud region looks like a monsoonal trough.

[srainhoutx]

I would not be surprised to see TS or Hurricane Carlotta during the day tomorrow. My hunch is there are chances of very rapid intensification for the next 48 hours before making landfall in the Gulf of Tehuantepec/S Mexico Region. Should DMAX bring deep convection near the center overnight, a Major Hurricane may not be out of the question prior to landfall, IMO.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942012_ep032012.ren
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.

2. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 AM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

...CARLOTTA STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 93.4W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE TIME THE CENTER NEARS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. A
SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

RECON Schedule:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-027

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM CAROLTTA
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 75--
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0103E CARLOTTA
C. 15/1315Z
D. 13.9N 96.2W
E. 15/1700Z TO 15/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[srainhoutx]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8. CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR
48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE CARLOTTA TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY AND IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT CARLOTTA SHOULD TRACK NEAR
OR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 36-72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE WEST...BUT LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WITH A VERY SLOW MOTION.


CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS
FOR CARLOTTA TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 48 HR. THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 25-KT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A
25 PERCENT CHANCE OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING...SO THE EARLY PART OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. AFTER 48 HR...THE
INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE CONTROLLED BY HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS TO
THE COAST. IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND WEAKEN AS SHOWN
BY THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND THAT IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

[srainhoutx]

Carlotta is very close to closing off an 'eyewall'. I suspect the NHC will upgrade to a Hurricane with the next full package Advisory.

EP, 03, 2012061512, , BEST, 0, 136N, 956W, 65, 988, HU,

[ticka1]

so carlotta will not move into the gom?

[srainhoutx]

so carlotta will not move into the gom?

No. What is likely to occur is some vorticity from Carlotta will be drawn N into the Bay of Campeche and this is what the models are 'sniffing' on our side of the Basin. It is not unheard of. Past history suggests that TS Allison 1989 and TS Hermine 2010 had their origins in the EPAC.

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

CONVECTION AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CARLOTTA HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED..WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL AND
EYE INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT ON THE PREMISE OF
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING SINCE THEN. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE EAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE
MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA
COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST.
AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF
THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER
OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST
SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 96.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 98.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
48H 17/1200Z 16.6N 99.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 19/1200Z 16.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 16.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

RECON is finding near 976mb extrapolated pressure readings with the first center pass.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN......


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 17:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03E in 2012
Storm Name: Carlotta (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 17:25:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°18'N 96°07'W (14.3N 96.1167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 144 miles (232 km) to the SSW (205°) from Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,912m (9,554ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 129° at 92kts (From the SE at ~ 105.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:20:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (47°) from the flight level center

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

CARLOTTA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 99 KT IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL...AND SFMR WIND
ESTIMATES OF 90-98 KT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EYEWALLS. THE
LATEST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS NOW
GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 48 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVING INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO BETWEEN
12-24 HR. IF IT SURVIVES THAT...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OVER THE PACIFIC AND MAKE A SLOW HAIRPIN TURN NEAR THE MEXICAN
COAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
THE CENTER IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
TO DISRUPT THE STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
PREMISE THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER 6 HR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS AND THAT
THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL BE NEAR 90 KT. THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
AFTER THIS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT
REVISION TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS NOW A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN TWO EXTREMES. THE FIRST EXTREME... SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IS THAT CARLOTTA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE SECOND EXTREME...SUPPPORTED
BY THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS THAT CARLOTTA
WILL STAY OVER ENOUGH WATER TO MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS INTENSITY. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
MODEL.

THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 14.8N 96.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.7N 97.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.4N 98.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 16.7N 99.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 16.8N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 18/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 16.5N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 16.0N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Nearing landfall very close to Puerto Angel

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...EYE OF CARLOTTA JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO VERY NEAR PUERTO
ANGEL...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 96.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...CARLOTTA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 99.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT

[srainhoutx]

The Euro is suggesting another EPAC Hurricane near the 4th of July