1am update for everyone
Pressure up to 993mb
Forecast is for Debby to drift around ..possibly not making landfall untill later in the week.
Debby is looking pretty sick though...
Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic
There have actually been some sizable shifts with the 0z GFS, and now the 0z Euro follows it. ESE and across the peninsula and stalling it just S of Daytona Beach through hr 120.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
...DEBBY STILL STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
HPC:
...ERN GULF COAST REGION TO SE ATLC COAST...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL NEWD INTO THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF GA/SC AS STORM DEBBY MEANDERS SLOWLY NWD THIS
PD. THE PCPN PATRN AROUND DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED WITH
SHEAR IN MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS..WITH EARLIER SWLY SHEAR HAVING
FORCED MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION OFF TO THE NE. THE BIG
CHALLENGE HERE IS HOW QUICKLY THE SHEAR RELAXES..IF IT DOES AT
ALL. STILL FAIRLY DEEP MSTR REMAINS OVER THE ERN GULF..SO EVEN
LOW TOP DVLPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY PCPN. THERE IS ACTUALLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN
MAINTAINING ASSYMETRIC PCPN PROFILE WITH MSTR FEEDER BANDS AND
MORE NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL N/E/SE OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE LONG DURATION INFLOW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FL PANHANDLE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO 24 HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. NE OF THIS REGION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
HEAVY RAINS SETTING UP ALONG THE GA/SC COASTAL AREA AS DEEP MSTR
FROM DEBBY INTERACTS WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SWD FROM THE
MID ATLC REGION MON NIGHT. ENHANCED RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WITH AMPLIFYING NE UPR TROF COUPLED WITH DEEP TROP MSTR
AND FRONTAL CONVEGENCE COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
...DEBBY STILL STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
...ERN GULF COAST REGION TO SE ATLC COAST...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF FL NEWD INTO THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF GA/SC AS STORM DEBBY MEANDERS SLOWLY NWD THIS
PD. THE PCPN PATRN AROUND DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED WITH
SHEAR IN MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS..WITH EARLIER SWLY SHEAR HAVING
FORCED MOST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION OFF TO THE NE. THE BIG
CHALLENGE HERE IS HOW QUICKLY THE SHEAR RELAXES..IF IT DOES AT
ALL. STILL FAIRLY DEEP MSTR REMAINS OVER THE ERN GULF..SO EVEN
LOW TOP DVLPMENT WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY PCPN. THERE IS ACTUALLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN
MAINTAINING ASSYMETRIC PCPN PROFILE WITH MSTR FEEDER BANDS AND
MORE NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL N/E/SE OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE LONG DURATION INFLOW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FL PANHANDLE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO 24 HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. NE OF THIS REGION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
HEAVY RAINS SETTING UP ALONG THE GA/SC COASTAL AREA AS DEEP MSTR
FROM DEBBY INTERACTS WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING RAPIDLY SWD FROM THE
MID ATLC REGION MON NIGHT. ENHANCED RT ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS WITH AMPLIFYING NE UPR TROF COUPLED WITH DEEP TROP MSTR
AND FRONTAL CONVEGENCE COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from the AL/FL border to Suwannee River, FL
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Suwannee River, FL to Englewood, FL
Discussion:
Debby has become increasingly disorganized overnight with the eastern side deep convection shearing off to the northeast leaving behind a stationary swirl over the NE Gulf of Mexico 90 miles SSW of Apalachicola, FL with 50mph sustained winds. Recon aircraft has been recording between 30-45kts winds at flight level and through the SMFR equipment however a look at coastal reporting stations and eastern/northeastern Gulf buoy and ship data does not show any sustained winds above 40kts in the last several hours. It is likely that the stronger winds aloft are not being transported to the surface due to the lack of any deep convection around the system. Stronger winds with gusts to 40-50mph area likely occurring in the squalls well to the SE and E of the center over western FL.
Track:
Debby has been stationary most of the night as the mid level ridge has built in to the north of the circulation. It appears the system is decoupling with the convection and mid level center shearing off to the northeast and the low level center becoming trapped in the NE Gulf. Model guidance remains in modest agreement with the ECMWF and GFS taking the system across FL and into the Atlantic while other guidance shows the system remaining/lingering over the NE Gulf for the next several days. The official NHC forecast has Debby moving very little through the end of the week and finally making landfall over the FL panhandle toward the end of the week.
Intensity:
Debby looks more like a weakening swirl of low clouds with no deep convection anywhere near the center. Fairly strong rainbands are noted well SE of the center over SW FL and deep convection is noted off the NE FL coast. Looking at surface observations it has been several hours since any widespread reports of TS winds were recorded including at many of the offshore buoys and the 50mph sustained winds look to be generous by NHC as it appears the flight level winds are not transporting to the surface due to a lack of deep convection. With shear and dry air continuing to affect the system and without thunderstorms near the center, Debby will begin to spin down (this is already starting to happen). Additionally, with the circulation moving very little, cold water upwelling will also likely begin to have negative effects on the system over the next few days and Debby will likely weaken with time.
Impacts:
The main impacts will be the prolonged threat for heavy rainfall over much of FL and southern GA. Majority of the rainfall in the near term will be from training feeder bands dropping very heavy rainfall. Debby has already produced widespread 4-6 inches of rainfall over areas near and north of Tampa and an additional 5-15 inches can be expected through the rest of the week. The other impact will be higher than normal tides and storm surge flooding especially along the FL west coast and in Apalachee Bay (which is very vulnerable to storm surge). The prolonged SSW fetch on the east side of the circulation into the concave shape of Apalachee Bay will produce water level rises on average of 4-6 feet above normal dry ground at locations near the coast. South of Apalachee Bay along the west coast of FL values will average 2-4 feet.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from the AL/FL border to Suwannee River, FL
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Suwannee River, FL to Englewood, FL
Discussion:
Debby has become increasingly disorganized overnight with the eastern side deep convection shearing off to the northeast leaving behind a stationary swirl over the NE Gulf of Mexico 90 miles SSW of Apalachicola, FL with 50mph sustained winds. Recon aircraft has been recording between 30-45kts winds at flight level and through the SMFR equipment however a look at coastal reporting stations and eastern/northeastern Gulf buoy and ship data does not show any sustained winds above 40kts in the last several hours. It is likely that the stronger winds aloft are not being transported to the surface due to the lack of any deep convection around the system. Stronger winds with gusts to 40-50mph area likely occurring in the squalls well to the SE and E of the center over western FL.
Track:
Debby has been stationary most of the night as the mid level ridge has built in to the north of the circulation. It appears the system is decoupling with the convection and mid level center shearing off to the northeast and the low level center becoming trapped in the NE Gulf. Model guidance remains in modest agreement with the ECMWF and GFS taking the system across FL and into the Atlantic while other guidance shows the system remaining/lingering over the NE Gulf for the next several days. The official NHC forecast has Debby moving very little through the end of the week and finally making landfall over the FL panhandle toward the end of the week.
Intensity:
Debby looks more like a weakening swirl of low clouds with no deep convection anywhere near the center. Fairly strong rainbands are noted well SE of the center over SW FL and deep convection is noted off the NE FL coast. Looking at surface observations it has been several hours since any widespread reports of TS winds were recorded including at many of the offshore buoys and the 50mph sustained winds look to be generous by NHC as it appears the flight level winds are not transporting to the surface due to a lack of deep convection. With shear and dry air continuing to affect the system and without thunderstorms near the center, Debby will begin to spin down (this is already starting to happen). Additionally, with the circulation moving very little, cold water upwelling will also likely begin to have negative effects on the system over the next few days and Debby will likely weaken with time.
Impacts:
The main impacts will be the prolonged threat for heavy rainfall over much of FL and southern GA. Majority of the rainfall in the near term will be from training feeder bands dropping very heavy rainfall. Debby has already produced widespread 4-6 inches of rainfall over areas near and north of Tampa and an additional 5-15 inches can be expected through the rest of the week. The other impact will be higher than normal tides and storm surge flooding especially along the FL west coast and in Apalachee Bay (which is very vulnerable to storm surge). The prolonged SSW fetch on the east side of the circulation into the concave shape of Apalachee Bay will produce water level rises on average of 4-6 feet above normal dry ground at locations near the coast. South of Apalachee Bay along the west coast of FL values will average 2-4 feet.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
ENGLEWOOD HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 85.2W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 200SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 85.2W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 85.5W
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.9N 84.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.0N 84.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.2N 84.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 85.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1500 UTC MON JUN 25 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
ENGLEWOOD HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 85.2W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 200SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 85.2W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 85.5W
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.9N 84.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.0N 84.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.2N 84.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 85.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
...DEBBY A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE FLORIDA
COAST...WARNINGS ADJUSTED...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
DEBBY FOR OVER 12 HOURS. WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS PRIMARILY
LOCATED IN A FRAGMENTED BAND WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...AND
SOUNDINGS ALONG THE GULF COAST INDICATE THAT THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IS AFFECTING THE STORM. IN ADDITION...THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF DEBBY HAS INDUCED OCEANIC UPWELLING AND COOLING
UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE AND MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE OBSERVED
WEAKENING. LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT. WITH DRY AIR LURKING AND
WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE PRIOR TO LANDFALL
SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN LINE
WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES HAVE SHOWN LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OVER
THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS... ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD SHORT-TERM MOTION.
AT THE MOMENT...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT MOTION REPRESENTS
A MEANDERING OR A MORE DECIDED MOTION. ON THE LARGE SCALE...DEBBY
IS TRAPPED IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING IN BETWEEN A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND ONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD CAUSING DEBBY TO MOVE GENERALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE CENTER EMERGING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY DAY 5. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH
COULD LEAVE DEBBY IN WEAK STEERING CURRENT AGAIN AFTER THAT TIME.
SINCE YESTERDAY... THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY THE UKMET NOW SHOWING A WESTWARD MOTION. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR AN EASTWARD MOTION
BY ABOUT A 3 TO 1 RATIO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 28.6N 85.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 28.8N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 28.9N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.0N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 29.2N 84.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 29.5N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
...DEBBY A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE FLORIDA
COAST...WARNINGS ADJUSTED...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
DEBBY FOR OVER 12 HOURS. WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS PRIMARILY
LOCATED IN A FRAGMENTED BAND WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...AND
SOUNDINGS ALONG THE GULF COAST INDICATE THAT THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IS AFFECTING THE STORM. IN ADDITION...THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF DEBBY HAS INDUCED OCEANIC UPWELLING AND COOLING
UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE AND MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE OBSERVED
WEAKENING. LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT. WITH DRY AIR LURKING AND
WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE PRIOR TO LANDFALL
SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN LINE
WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES HAVE SHOWN LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OVER
THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS... ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD SHORT-TERM MOTION.
AT THE MOMENT...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT MOTION REPRESENTS
A MEANDERING OR A MORE DECIDED MOTION. ON THE LARGE SCALE...DEBBY
IS TRAPPED IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING IN BETWEEN A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND ONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD CAUSING DEBBY TO MOVE GENERALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE CENTER EMERGING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY DAY 5. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH
COULD LEAVE DEBBY IN WEAK STEERING CURRENT AGAIN AFTER THAT TIME.
SINCE YESTERDAY... THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...WITH ONLY THE UKMET NOW SHOWING A WESTWARD MOTION. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR AN EASTWARD MOTION
BY ABOUT A 3 TO 1 RATIO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 28.6N 85.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 28.8N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 28.9N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.0N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 29.2N 84.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 29.5N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Oh yeah with all the dry air. That is one thing consoling for Texas in the rain department. I rather have a healthy tropical storm hit Texas than a dying tropical storm.Ed Mahmoud wrote:Tornado warning Lake Buena Vista/Kissimee (Disney tourist destination area). Tornadoes and floods obvious big threat.
Debby still looks pathetic as a TC.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
100 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
100 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
- Attachments
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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sleetstorm
- Posts: 651
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:33 pm
- Contact:
Come on ridge of High Pressure, turn T.S. Debby about face.
Is that actually possible?sleetstorm wrote:Come on ridge of High Pressure, turn T.S. Debby about face.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...DEBBY DRIFTING TOWARD FLORIDA GULF COAST...THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 84.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...DEBBY DRIFTING TOWARD FLORIDA GULF COAST...THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 84.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
- 06262012 7 AM Debby 090410W5_NL_sm.gif (31.81 KiB) Viewed 4528 times
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
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Member: National Weather Association
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Looks like two models want to bring Debby back into the Gulf of Mexico once it crosses FL tomorrow...
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
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sleetstorm
- Posts: 651
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:33 pm
- Contact:
Currently, the temperature is 106ºF here in Baytown with a heat index of 116ºF. It is sultry outside.
Reports Tropical Storm Debby made landfall. I think its a good bet that for TS Debby we need to follow the GFS - and the NHC has followed suite and jumped on the GFS bandwagon. It will cross Florida and go out to see.
I think enough damage has been done to Florida by TS Debby. It will take them weeks to dry out and clean up!
I think enough damage has been done to Florida by TS Debby. It will take them weeks to dry out and clean up!
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1142
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Let me remind everyone that until Debby is dead and gone, anything is possible. This manner of thinking has proven itself, time and time again. Ike is a huge example of the unexpected by some of our top forecasters. Even this storm went where it was not forecasted to go. Who is to say that Debby will not defy again. Tonight she appears to be looping by now moving south to south east. Debby may head back north east and move on out, but based on what I am currently seeing, this southerly track could continue. She may just die. She is NOT dead yet. Will she continue to sort of loop and at some point head west.
Be very careful about writing off a live tropical system.
Be very careful about writing off a live tropical system.
-
wxman57
- Global Moderator
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- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
I think we can safely say that Debby has merged with the frontal boundary that extends across central Florida and is no longer a tropical cyclone. It may live on as a frontal low, tracking out to sea to the northeast, but it's not going to regenerate into a tropical cyclone.
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1142
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Okay! Now we can stick a fork in Debby. Generally, the models were wrong all the way Debbies life span, if you look at the overall beginning to ending of her. Her finally was to head out with a southerly track, and then merge with a frontal system. I shutter to think things like no upper level low, no dry air, and no fronts to deal with. What would the outcome have been. The other scary thing is the unpredictability of these things anymore. What are we to do with storms like Ike if we have no one, or nothing that are/is going to be able to give us even a remotely accurate forecast. Debby is gone. What about the next one?
Stay tuned.
Stay tuned.