Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic
Latest forecast is for little movement for the next 3 or 4 days.
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biggerbyte
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Hmm! Stalling like that opens up new possibilities. Ridge building to its north is good if Texas has any remote chance of getting some rain from this.
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Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW
TWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN
FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOW
HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN
MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT
NOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER WATER...THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND
THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 28.4N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW
TWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN
FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOW
HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN
MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT
NOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.
DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER WATER...THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND
THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 28.4N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
biggerbyte wrote:Hmm! Stalling like that opens up new possibilities. Ridge building to its north is good if Texas has any remote chance of getting some rain from this.
Correct. Although it is a long shot it is a scenario that is in play. 18z and 0z modeling along with upper air sampling should begin to give us any clues to viability.Scott747 wrote:It has been 'decoupling' and taking it more towards the NE and that scenario for a Texas hit is running out of time.
Our best bet would for it to stall as the trough exits and then the rebuilding H sends it back to the W as a coastal runner with hints of a WSW movement. Plausible and would match up with some of the early modeling albeit off on timing.
Would be awhile though before any effects in our part of the world.
Question I've been pondering for a few hours...
Let's say the trough picks Debby up a little bit and drags it northward, possibly a few miles onshore to Florida. What are the chances that the trough isn't strong enough to take Debby completely Northeastward, and then the high pressure settles in, brings it back down in the Gulf of Mexico sending it westward..?
I know, I'm having a hard time letting Debby go. It's tough.
Let's say the trough picks Debby up a little bit and drags it northward, possibly a few miles onshore to Florida. What are the chances that the trough isn't strong enough to take Debby completely Northeastward, and then the high pressure settles in, brings it back down in the Gulf of Mexico sending it westward..?
I know, I'm having a hard time letting Debby go. It's tough.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
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Portastorm
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You'd have to see high pressure build fairly deep into the Atlantic Southeast for Debby to be pushed westward like that. I don't think the models show that sort of synoptic situation.Belmer wrote:Question I've been pondering for a few hours...
Let's say the trough picks Debby up a little bit and drags it northward, possibly a few miles onshore to Florida. What are the chances that the trough isn't strong enough to take Debby completely Northeastward, and then the high pressure settles in, brings it back down in the Gulf of Mexico sending it westward..?
I know, I'm having a hard time letting Debby go. It's tough.
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Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
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Here is the rest of the 4 p.m. NHC issuance:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
...THREAT TO LOUISIANA LESSENS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO ENGLEWOOD.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. NO SIGNIFICANT
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN
FLORIDA...CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
TORNADOES...A FEW ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO ENGLEWOOD.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT.......175NE 170SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 30SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 85.9W
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 85.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
...THREAT TO LOUISIANA LESSENS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO ENGLEWOOD.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. NO SIGNIFICANT
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN
FLORIDA...CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL
EXACERBATE THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
TORNADOES...A FEW ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
2100 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO ENGLEWOOD.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT.......175NE 170SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 30SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 85.9W
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 85.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
I think Debby will make landfall alot sooner in Florida. This one is Florida's. The models were all over the place but then again they didn't have a definited center to start from. We need rain but at least it is not last summer. We will get it - it just won't be with this system this coming week.
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txflagwaver
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Well...this was a good drill. Board was hopping and got a good workout! I wonder if this is an indication of an unusual season as far as predicating storm tracks. Hopefully the heat is not an indication of another summer like last year...
If it hits Florida, I expect it should speed up than be slow.
Im expecting a period with no storms...2-4 weeks..maybe longer
Should be a recon flight in the air soon for a fix for the 7pm intermediate advisory.
Last few hours it has moved little.
Last few hours it has moved little.
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Portastorm
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Agreed. Looking at this link below, I see a system barely moving if at all.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc
considering how the season has gone so far, I highly doubt we go a month without another system.gocuse22 wrote:Im expecting a period with no storms...2-4 weeks..maybe longer
what does this mean?skidog38 wrote:cloud tops rising
storm getting strongerticka1 wrote:what does this mean?skidog38 wrote:cloud tops rising
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
...DEBBY REMAINS STATIONARY...HEAVY SQUALLS AFFECTING THE
COASTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 86.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
...DEBBY REMAINS STATIONARY...HEAVY SQUALLS AFFECTING THE
COASTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...28.3N 86.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Not enough to indicate anything of a trend yet as the GFDL has flipped a few times. It did take Debby on a westward path before turning N across Buras and eventually turning back to the NE with the 18z run.
18z HWRF was just a small NW movement before dissipating over Mobile Bay.
18z HWRF was just a small NW movement before dissipating over Mobile Bay.