Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[Rip76]

Here's my thinking.

Either it just keeps reforming and relocating into Fla.
Or does spin up fairly well and goes in just to our East in Louisiana..... Pulling any moisture away from here.

[jasons2k]

If this verifies, look what's up north

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=wbg

[singlemom]

*sigh* *Louisiana??* *Brownsville?* I was really hoping for some rain out of this.....I know...wait for the HH to get a COC and wait for the models to pick it up. Still....what a headache of a system!

Okay, the truth is it's Cub Scout Day Camp again next week and I was hoping for a break from the 100 degree weather....

[srainhoutx]

HiRes satellite imagery suggests a drift to the W to WNW has started as the trough has passed off to the E into the SE US. We'll know later is that is true when the HH C-130 investigates. It will be a short trip from Keesler AFB in Biloxi...

[Rip76]

If this verifies, look what's up north

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=wbg

That's from yesterday, right?

[srainhoutx]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 23/2245Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 25/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 25/1045Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035
WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED.

[Rip76]

Interesting write up from Crown Weather today

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Curious are the Crown folks real mets?

[srainhoutx]

Great analysis from Melbourne, FL this morning explaining what the GFS may be 'sniffing' ~vs~ the other operational and ensemble guidance...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH
2.25 INCHES PRECIP WATER. CANOPY OF OPAQUE MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GULF
STREAMS OVERHEAD. LACK OF SOLAR HEATING WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 80S. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM SW TO NE WITH ISOLD STORMS. WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH POPS ESP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUN-TUE...OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
DEVELOPING GOMEX LOW AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE COMPLETE AND UTTER
DISPARITY BETWEEN THE GFS PLUS SOME OF THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE...AND
THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS IN WHERE
THE LOW EVENTUALLY TRACKS. IN A NUTSHELL...BOTH CAMPS CONTINUE TO
HOLD SERVE FOR THE MOST PART. THE GFS CONTINUES TO OFFER UP A MUCH
MORE LOCALLY IMPACTING SOLUTION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WHILE THE ECM/UKM/NAM SEND IT WEST TOWARD
TX. WHILE THE GFS SOLN CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...IT SEEMS A
MORE UNLIKELY BET THAT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS THAT FAR NE
WITH ONLY A POS TILT EXTENSION (WEAKNESS) BACK TOWARD FL WOULD CATCH
THE SYSTEM AND SLING IT EAST TO ENE.

WHAT`S INTERESTING IS THAT ALL THREE GLOBALS (ECM/UKM/GFS) DO SHOW
THE ERN CONUS TROUGH CATCHING A PIECE OF VORTICITY AT H50 AND
PULLING IT NEWD AWAY FROM THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE GOMEX LOW
ACROSS NORTH FL AND INTO THE ATLC LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT. WHERE I THINK
THE GFS MIGHT BE GOING ASTRAY IS THAT IT STARTS OFF WITH H50 HEIGHTS
ABOUT 10-20M LOWER NORTH OF THE GOMEX LOW...THEN COMPOUNDS THINGS BY
OVERDOING SURFACE PRES FALLS BENEATH THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT GETS
CARRIED OFF INTO THE ATLC (CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PERHAPS?). IN ANY
EVENT...THE LOCAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE
NON-GFS CAMP...WHICH STILL PORTENDS A DEEP SRLY MOISTURE FEED AND
HIGH RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ONLY SLOWLY LOWERING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS STILL BELOW CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE
OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP.

[Scott747]

Recon is descending and will take an hour or two before we find out if it's sufficient enough to upgrade. Still a bit of a mess.

If they do upgrade the first advisories should be initiated around 4.

[srainhoutx]

RECON data appears to support at least a depression on the first center pass with 31kt winds (35 mph). 1001.8mb.

[srainhoutx]

12Z HWRF...

[ticka1]

As always thanks for the updates Srainhoutx! Waiting with interest on what Recon's final informaton shows.

[Andrew]

CMC goes LA again

[srainhoutx]

12Z Ukmet...

[srainhoutx]

Little doubt where the broad surface low is now albeit exposed and elongated..

[Andrew]

Little doubt where the broad surface low is now albeit exposed and elongated..

Yea with that ULL south of the Texas coast this thing won't be able to stack up much if at all.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE
DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE
SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro...

[cisa]

It's easy to see that this storm has a mind of its own and who knows where it will land, but here's my question. If this were to make a LA landfall, is the thinking that ist woul continue northward, or east Tx or get pushed off east? This doesn't look to be a wind maker as much as a rainmaker, so I'm just wondering track once on shore depending on where landfall might be.

[srainhoutx]

Euro= WSW motion at hour 72