Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico

[srainhoutx]

AL, 05, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 556W, 40, 1008, TS,

[djjordan]

AL, 05, 2012080218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 556W, 40, 1008, TS,

Looks like Ernesto could be born coming up here at 4PM CDT

[biggerbyte]

I'd expect an upgrade from the NHC next update. Minimal it looks to be, but TS Ernesto none the less.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 56.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 56.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 55.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 59.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.2N 62.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.6N 65.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.2N 68.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 56.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE
IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FOUND SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BECOME MUCH
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ERNESTO REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL PREDICTION. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 270/19. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS NEAR THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF
FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 12.8N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.2N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 13.6N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.2N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 17.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 18.5N 83.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

From Jeff:

Based on data from a recon aircraft the tropical depression east of the Windward Islands is being upgraded to a tropical storm.

Discussion:

Satellite images show a slight improvement in the overall organization of the system today, but the system still lacks well defined deep convection near the center. Recon aircraft found 45kt winds with the SFMR equipment and thus the main reasoning for the upgrade. With that said, the outflow has improved to the north and while dry air is still getting entrained into the circulation it appears to not be as severe as yesterday. Ernesto continues to move quickly toward the W at near 20mph.

Track:

There has been no change in the forecast track reasoning with the system embedded south of strong mid Atlantic deep layer ridging resulting in a fairly quick W to WNW motion for the next 5 days. This will take Ernesto across the Windward Islands on Friday and through much of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea this weekend into the western Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Monday. At that point a weakness in between the sub-tropical ridge over the Atlantic and the retreating ridge over the southern plains/TX will begin to allow the system to slow and turn toward the WNW or NW as it nears the Yucatan. Global model track guidance is in fair to good agreement through 72 hours and this is an above average forecast confidence track.

Intensity:

It appears that Ernesto is wining out over the dry air and shear and at least holding its own in the face of moderately favorable conditions. Would like to see more deep convection near the center, but that will come in time as the inner core begins to consolidate. Models are still at odds and many lose the system/weaken it into an open wave in the Caribbean Sea, but thus far the system has overcome the negative factors and is gradually becoming better organized. Feel slow intensification is possible through the eastern and central Caribbean which is usually an unfavorable region for TC’s. Once in the western Caribbean Sea, conditions appear very favorable for intensification with a building 200mb anticyclone over the system and this feature looks to move with the system into the Gulf of Mexico. SHIPS intensity guidance brings Ernesto now to a 80kt (90mph) hurricane as it nears the Yucatan coast. It should be noted that both the EURO and GFS continue to show a weak system in the western Caribbean Sea.

It is becoming increasingly possible that a hurricane will be moving toward/into the southern or SE Gulf of Mexico middle to late next week.

Now would be a good time to remind all residents to check those hurricane kits and go over your hurricane preparation plans.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, there is going to be plenty of fuel over the western Carribean and Gulf of Mexico. Starting with the former, we need to watch for the possibility of rapid intensification. The big question beyond there is if, or when and where a weakness to its north develops and gives Ernesto a little more northward tug. The entire gulf region should be paying close attention at this point.

Edit to add that conditions other than warm waters have to be favorable. We will just have to see how things stack up over the coming days.

[sambucol]

Bill Read was just on Ch 2. He said all conditions are "disturbing for rapid intensification". I thought he looked and sounded very concerned about this storm. I think I heard Frank B. say it could easily be a Cat 3. Frank did ask Bill if this could be a Texas issue. Bill didn't say yes or no, but responded with when it enters the Gulf, it will hit land.

I am not a meteorologist & have no scientific data to support this, but I have a bad feeling about this storm. I hope I'm wrong.

[srainhoutx]

The 'night crew' should have the new data from todays RECON mission ingested into the 00Z suite of guidance. Ernesto still has a ways to go and we have around 5-7 days to watch how things develop with this storm.

[Alvin Girl]

Folks, there is going to be plenty of fuel over the western Carribean and Gulf of Mexico. Starting with the former, we need to watch for the possibility of rapid intensification. The big question beyond there is if, or when and where a weakness to its north develops and gives Ernesto a little more northward tug. The entire gulf region should be paying close attention at this point.

Edit to add that conditions other than warm waters have to be favorable. We will just have to see how things stack up over the coming days.

Agreed - I know I'll be glued to the forum over the next few days. I too have a "bad feeling" about the storm. Any new information or model runs in yet?

[Andrew]

Folks, there is going to be plenty of fuel over the western Carribean and Gulf of Mexico. Starting with the former, we need to watch for the possibility of rapid intensification. The big question beyond there is if, or when and where a weakness to its north develops and gives Ernesto a little more northward tug. The entire gulf region should be paying close attention at this point.

Edit to add that conditions other than warm waters have to be favorable. We will just have to see how things stack up over the coming days.

Agreed - I know I'll be glued to the forum over the next few days. I too have a "bad feeling" about the storm. Any new information or model runs in yet?

The next reliable model run will be the 00z gfs in about 30-45 minutes

[Andrew]

GFS suggest stronger ridging through the whole period which translates into a middle Mexico landfall. Ridging looks extremely strong during the beginning of the run so I think there is about a 50-50 chance (according to the gfs) that this runs into south america.

[Andrew]

00z CMC:

[Andrew]

Euro:

[srainhoutx]

00Z GFS Ensembles = S Texas

[Belmer]

My hunch is the High Pressure will definitely win out and be a South TX or upper to middle Mexico coast landfall by next weekend. Plus, why would you want a possible Cat 3-4 to come here anyway? IKE was enough for a while... AND all of SE and East TX is out of the drought area, it's not like we "desperately" need the rain. Give it to the folks in South TX who are in a drought and hope Ernesto can pull northward into Central and West TX where they REALLY need the rain. IF that were to play out, we would still be on the 'dirty' side and would see a huge surge of Gulf moisture.
Just my two cents. Bottom line though, WAY to early to determine where this storm will make landfall. Won't have a better handle on the possible landfall location till the earliest Sunday. But I would really give it till Monday into Tuesday to have a better idea.
I'm more interested in the wave behind Ernesto that has a "10% chance of development". As of 3am, looks pretty healthy. Sure signs that the Atlantic is heating up as the MJO is positive right now and the Atlantic High looks to be breaking down, thus, allow the dust off of Africa to slow down and produce a more favorable environment for storms coming off the African coast.

[srainhoutx]

Forecaster Roth of the HPC this morning regarding the potential future of Ernesto:

THE BIGGEST ISSUE/PROBLEM THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS ERNESTO...WHICH
THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE THROUGH BELIZE/THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHICH IS A BIT
SOUTHWEST OF THE NHC TRACK...WHICH MID PERIOD IS CLOSEST TO THE
00Z CANADIAN MODEL THAT ULTIMATELY TAKES THE STORM TOWARDS THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND A
PRECEDING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD LURE ERNESTO UP TOWARDS THE 30TH
PARALLEL...BUT THAT ASSUMES A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WHICH
IS MINIMALLY SHEARED. COMPROMISES WERE MADE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING AND THE CANADIAN MODEL...WITH SOME INPUT GATHERED FROM
NHC ON THE 08Z CONFERENCE CALL WHICH CAUSED SOME SLIGHT SLOWING.
FOR NOW...ITS PRESSURE HAS BEEN DRAWN DOWN BELOW 1000 HPA TO
INDICATE A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT ITS FUTURE DEPENDS
ON WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN EFFECTIVELY FIGHT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET STEERING THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD
IMPARTS ON THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC CONCERNING ERNESTO.

[srainhoutx]

06Z HWRF and GFDL...

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Tropical storm passing through the Windward Island with strong winds.



Discussion:

Ernesto moving through the Windward Islands. Winds gusted to 63mph at St Lucia and sustained winds of 43mph at Barbados in the last few hours. Ernesto is racing westward at 24mph this morning…very fast for a tropical cyclone…and the result in a disorganized system even though some strong winds are being reported on the islands. First few visible images this morning show a sheared system with an exposed low level center to the west of a small and decreasing ball of deep convection. The fast forward motion of the low level center is pushing the center out from under the deep convection and the net result is about 20kts of shear over the system. While the system is well defined on radar, it is not well organized and will have to slow its fast forward motion. It is possible that Ernesto may open up into a tropical wave over the next 24 hours.



Track:

Ernesto remains to the south of a very strong mid Atlantic ridge resulting in the fast forward motion, and this should continue for the next 1-2 days taking the system generally W to WNW through the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. BY the end of day 3 (Sunday) the system will begin to approach the western edge of the sub-tropical high over the SW Atlantic and start to encounter a weakness over the Gulf of Mexico. This weakness which is currently over the SE US will be moving westward this week as the TX high pressure cell builds/moves westward. The GFS and EURO take a weak system into the southern Yucatan and then MX while the CMC, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF all show Ernesto turning NW into the weakness. The reasoning for the spilt in the guidance at the longer range is the intensity of the system. A weaker system will follow the low level flow and stay southward, while a stronger system feels the weakness in the ridge and begins to bend WNW and then NW. Current NHC track is pretty much down the middle road of the guidance with the GFS and EURO on the left and the GFDL and HWRF on the right. The track forecast for the next 48 hours is fairly high confidence, but the confidence lowers after 48 hours as the guidance spread becomes increasingly large.



Intensity:

The intensity forecast remains a problem as the near term environment is marginally favorable for development and the long term environment favorable. The question is does Ernesto survive the short term to take advantage of the long term. Based on the satellite presentation this morning it is questionable if Ernesto will survive the next 24 hours as the fast westward motion will continue to produce moderate to strong wind shear. Additionally, the eastern Caribbean Sea is typically not a very favorable region for developing tropical systems. Also the GFS and EURO continue to insist that the system will not intensify much, while the latest GFDL, HWRF, and CMC all show Ernesto reaching hurricane intensity in the western Caribbean Sea. Current NHC forecast is leaning toward the stronger guidance and takes Ernesto to a hurricane south of Jamaica and into the NE Yucatan and the SE Gulf of Mexico. It should be noted that conditions will be fairly favorable in the western Caribbean Sea and the LGEM and GFDI guidance makes Ernesto a major hurricane. It is also noted that most of the guidance makes Ernesto a category 2 hurricane about 48 hours prior to the official NHC forecast.



Now would be a good time for residents to review their hurricane preparation plans!



90L:

New tropical wave/surface low south of the Cape Verde Islands has developed some organized thunderstorms and continues to show signs of development this morning. NHC gives this system a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation as it moves WNW at 10-15mph.





Forecast Model Tracks:

[srainhoutx]

I know there is some chatter across the weather boards that Ernesto is not looking to well and may be degenerating to an open wave, but MIMIC and Microwave data suggest that Ernesto is maintaining a closed circulation center albeit devoid of deep convection...