Ernesto Dissipates Over Mexico

[Scott747]

Putting a local perspective and some objectivity on any impacts to our neck of the woods in SE Texas...

Ernesto is so far out from having any real impacts on our region that most everyone should just be aware of the system but not be overly concerned about it. I know there are many here that probably lurk at some of the more active tropical sites and may get confused by what is being said or 'forecasted' by others. Many times the excitement of a system so far out with 'potential' will skew or mislead what will happen longer term with regards to the track, or how it is interpreted.

[Andrew]

From this far out honestly I don't see this going east of Louisiana. While a weakness in the gulf does develop from the trough at the same time the ridging does develop back in very nicely and models have picked up on that with a push back to the west. We will see what the 00z models have to say.

[cristina99]

I haven't posted in over a year. I usually just log on to read. Although I agree with those that have said it is good to be cautiously aware, it is quite daunting to look at the radar and guestimated track and see the storm as a CAT 1 heading towards Houston/Galveston. I still would use this time--whether this storm hits us or not-- to lock down any hurricane preparations (minus boarding up windows, etc.) Ike was bad enough and I remember going to the stores afterwards and standing in line just for ICE. It was scary. I am getting a Coleman light/lantern and a car charger for my iPhone (didn't have one last time and phone was useless after a day). Right now, if you look at it, it looks like something we do need to watch. Of course, my family and I start watching anything that gets in the vicinity of the Gulf. I find the information on this forum very much informative (nothing against the meterologists on TV, sometimes they just don't give as much info out) and will continue to do so through next week.

[Belmer]

Bastardi brought up a good point...

@BigJoeBastardi
Convective blow up over Ernesto may be dry entrainment bursting, we will know tomorrow I have seen this many times, may not be what u think

[Andrew]

Bastardi brought up a good point...

@BigJoeBastardi
Convective blow up over Ernesto may be dry entrainment bursting, we will know tomorrow I have seen this many times, may not be what u think

I have to agree. At the same time though convection bursting to the east does look encouraging.

[gocuse22]

Appears that the UKMET has joined the EURO and GFS in the south camp.

[Andrew]

Nice banding starting to setup now. It is really looking good and the constant formation of convection would imply this is increased development. One thing to note though is a lot of the models are initializing poorly with the intensity of the storm currently. That could be one of the reasons why they are pushing Ernesto so far south and west. Tomorrow and Sunday will be key to see how much dry air and shear gets into the system. I don't think the system will get as weak as the GFS is describing but only time will tell.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[gocuse22]

Models are starting to agree with the GFS and EURO south solution

[Belmer]

Models are starting to agree with the GFS and EURO south solution

Not buying into that at the moment. This storm clearly is getting itself together and quickly! Not calling the Hurricane hunters liars by no means, but I just feel like Ernesto is not a 50mph storm. 60mph-65mph? Possibly. Since 11:00pm, Ernesto continues to get himself more defined. However, the reason I don't buy into the models going south into the Bay of Camp. and into Mexico, is because those models are still thinking that Ernesto will "weaken", thus allowing the trend to be southward. However, if Ernesto continues to strengthen, then my thinking is it should get picked up by the weakness in the Gulf come later in the week and allow it to be pulled NW/WNW. I would say as far East I see it going would be New Orleans ..and that's is pushing it.
Once models can lock on that Ernesto will infact not weaken, then those models might start shifting back north again.

EDIT TO ADD: With that said, I am throwing out the model runs as of right now, as none of them just seem to make sense to me. I expect a dramatic shift in models come 24 hours from now.
I am off to bed, have busy day tomorrow. Goodnight khou board.

[gocuse22]

Models are starting to agree with the GFS and EURO south solution

Not buying into that at the moment. This storm clearly is getting itself together and quickly! Not calling the Hurricane hunters liars by no means, but I just feel like Ernesto is not a 50mph storm. 60mph-65mph? Possibly. Since 11:00pm, Ernesto continues to get himself more defined. However, the reason I don't buy into the models going south into the Bay of Camp. and into Mexico, is because those models are still thinking that Ernesto will "weaken", thus allowing the trend to be southward. However, if Ernesto continues to strengthen, then my thinking is it should get picked up by the weakness in the Gulf come later in the week and allow it to be pulled NW/WNW. I would say as far East I see it going would be New Orleans ..and that's is pushing it.
Once models can lock on that Ernesto will infact not weaken, then those models might start shifting back north again.

Yeah i agree..Im shocked by these models shifting south...

[biggerbyte]

I'll go out on a limb at this point and say that the models are all wet. (Pardon the pun)
Ernesto would have to be quite weak for him to continue moving due west all the way into Mexico. I may be wrong, but I still see him staying strong enough to get into the Gulf, then really get going and get pulled more wnw to nw. Certainly more of a northerly tug. I agree that folks from Corpus to New Orleans would need to really watch Ernesto.

[gocuse22]

The fact that GFDL takes this storm to Cat 3 and 950mb...

[Andrew]

The fact that GFDL takes this storm to Cat 3 and 950mb...

And Central Gulf... Looks like a LA type of landfall (doesn't go out far enough to know for sure though)

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... c_loop.php

[Belmer]

I knew this was going to happen. I get in bed but can't sleep. Haha, this storm is a week out and is already ruining my sleep schedule.

Hey Andrew,
Just for fun, can you post the FIM Experimental solution and what it has it doing!?

[Scott747]

The fact that GFDL takes this storm to Cat 3 and 950mb...

And?

You do realize how off the GFDL has been with this storm?

[gocuse22]

The fact that GFDL takes this storm to Cat 3 and 950mb...

And?

You do realize how off the GFDL has been with this storm?

I believe it more than the models that take Ernesto into a open wave

[biggerbyte]

The problem with that graphic is that it shows Ernesto taking a very sharp turn due north right as he enters the gulf. That seems a bit too soon, and a bit to drastic to me.

[Belmer]

The fact that GFDL takes this storm to Cat 3 and 950mb...

And?

You do realize how off the GFDL has been with this storm?

GFDL still seems to be the only model picking up on its intensity and moving it where it should be

[gocuse22]

The fact that GFDL takes this storm to Cat 3 and 950mb...

And?

You do realize how off the GFDL has been with this storm?

GFDL still seems to be the only model picking up on its intensity and moving it where it should be

Yes

According to the 6z best track Ernesto is now a 60mph TS

[Scott747]

The fact that GFDL takes this storm to Cat 3 and 950mb...

And?

You do realize how off the GFDL has been with this storm?

I believe it more than the models that take Ernesto into a open wave

That same model you are hanging on had an open wave going through Aruba just a few days ago.