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Ernesto is looking little better during the last few hours with a convective burst near the center. Lots of tropical cyclone watching through the weekend and into next week. The last major hurricane for the Upper TX Coast was Alicia 1983 which was 29 years ago. IKE was not a major. For the Middle TX Coast it has been 51 years.....Carla 1961.

The 53rd RECON Group has a full plate and crews are being shifted as the Tropics become rather active including an area of disturbed weather off the Florida Coast enters the mix. Tis the season I suppose...

12Z Tracks & Intensity:

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012


DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWED
THE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF OR OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE
CENTER. FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN
MUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THE TIME ERNESTO
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
SHEAR AND HIGH UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT
BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER
HURRICANE.

MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...TRACK MODELS DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY AND SOME MODELS KEEP ERNESTO ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...WHILE ANOTHER GROUP TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...DEPENDING UPON HOW THE MODELS DEPICT THE STRENGTH OF
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5
DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.7N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.9N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.4N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 15.0N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 17.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 18.5N 83.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Wxman57 suggested in another forum that it is unlikely to be a TX threat - either south of us into MX or east of us. Just wanted to get some other opinions on this, is it really unlikely (based on high pressure) for a TX landfall? (Not questioning your expertise Wxman57, just looking to see what others think )

He also said this: "Of course, that all depends on both models predicting the position of the ridge to the NW of TX and the weakness over the central to NE Gulf."

In other words, this is still 6-7-8 days away and the models are subject to change in the next week.

Wherever Ernesto goes, I hope Texas residents are using the next 5 days to check their hurricane preparedness. Activity in the tropics is picking up right on cue.

For so, so many reasons, I feel it would be a huge mistake to say likely, or unlikely at this stage. Way too many variables and possibilities. Also, let's not let our guard down because of how Ernesto looks right now either. This was expected. If he can survive to the other side of the Carribean, and then into the Gulf, look out. Not saying that any one scenario will play out, but this is not over yet for anyone in the Gulf region.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Looks like Canadian has joined the GFS and Euro as seeing the unfavorable environment for the next couple of days keeping this weak enough to avoid being pulled into the Gulf.

Actually the GFS and the Canadian stall Ernesto along the Mexican Gulf Coast before shifting it N to NNE. All that happens after truncation in the GFS, but there still remains a deep trough approaching over the Rockies that eventually picks up the storm. That said we are still a long way out in really knowing exactly what will happen and the guidance will tend not to do very well with the weakness expected in about 5-7 days across E Texas/Louisiana. Meanwhile we watch and wait.

GFDL and HWRF still trend north

gocuse22 wrote:GFDL and HWRF still trend north

That they do. GFDL use to be a REALLY good model a few years ago, however, that hasn't been the case the past couple of years. Although, if Ernesto starts making a quick WNW to NW turn and more toward the Eastern Gulf, it could be on to something.

The key here is a stronger system will feel the weakness and head more NW. A weaker system will continue west.

12Z HWRF & GFDL:

Ernesto has some deep warm water in the Caribbean. Could intensify into a major hurricane.

The concern I have right now is the possibility of Ernesto slowing and rapidly strengthening in the SE or SC Gulf, then starting that more northerly path. Srain mentioned that a couple of posts as well. Stalling near Mexico then heading north would not bode very well for the Texas coastline, unless you want to see a Hurricane.

18Z Tracks & Intensity...significant shift N in tracks...

HPC Final Afternoon Update:

...ERNESTO...

NHC FORECASTS A HURRICANE ON DY 5 NEARING THE YUCATAN. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...ALLOWING US TO MOVE THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION SWIFTLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ON DY 6/7. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC
CONCERNING ERNESTO.

srain, now that 91L is on the board - what does this mean for Ernesto? Is it possible that we could have two storms heading in our direction next week?

Alvin Girl wrote:srain, now that 91L is on the board - what does this mean for Ernesto? Is it possible that we could have two storms heading in our direction next week?

91L is a fly in the ointment in the forecast. As far as what that might mean regarding Ernesto's future track, I suspect that the East Coast trough and weakness expected across the Central Gulf Coast as well as a short wave diving ESE from Canada will be the key players in how everything evolves. Stay tuned!

How are the models picking up Ernesto - and show nothing of 91L?
Seriously - sorry - I am new and curious how this work itself out? While the models are indeed not perfect - shouldn't they sniff it out? Thanks -