Wx Infinity Forums

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012080306, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902012
AL, 90, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 124N, 239W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 135 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

I expect to see Florence here rather soon. This wave has really showed signs of organization in the past 24 hours. Question is, will it take a path like Ernesto into the Caribbean and possibly into the Gulf? Or will the Atlantic High pick it up as future Florence picks up strength?
One thing for sure, August wasted no time in the Hurricane department.

Joe Bastardi tweeted this earlier today. And I tend to agree, maybe Florence by tonight?



Already a tighter looking system than ernesto. Euro takes that on the weather bell track which is weaker ,further south

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

Forecast track for Topical Depression #6

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
800 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65
KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 0800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 29.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Florence went "poof' to a remnant low.

I guess Flo wasn't "progressive" enough! wink,wink.