Post Tropical Cyclone Helene: Dissipated Over Mexico

[srainhoutx]

Yeah, Portastorm. It's still offshore and creeping along the near shore coastal waters which is what some guidance had suggested for days. It does appear have slowed the last couple of radar frames, so we'll need to watch that trend. Also, while the Canadian is not a good tropical model, it does agree with the eventual path that the GFS suggested albeit a tad stronger along the SW Louisiana Coast.

[djmike]

Where at in SWLA does the GFS bring it in?

[srainhoutx]

Latest TWO from the NHC is reporting near shore oil platform readings suggest a Depression is forming along or just S of Tampico. RECON is still scheduled to investigate and Watches/Warnings for portions of the Mexican Gulf Coast may be hoisted shortly. Also radar imagery is suggesting that the disturbance is creeping parallel to the Coast just offshore.

[srainhoutx]

RECON is in the air heading toward 07.

[unome]

recon in Google Maps or Google Earth plug-in http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... n=02&map=1

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a weak low moves inland and meanders N before forming offshore just S of Brownsville and remaining stationary for about 24-36 hours before the trough picks it up and heads NE.

[Rip76]

Just wanted to throw this link out there for everyone that views this site on their iPhones, since you don't have flash.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/

Scroll down to Satellite.

Interesting couple of days ahead.
Lots of gulf activity.

[unome]

is this a landfall for TD07 ??? http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208171800

[djmike]

Intresting...Not sure about a high building to the north and pushing it back west over MX....Oh well. You guys agree with this?

http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/08/wh ... for-texas/

[srainhoutx]

unome...no, radar suggests the 'center' is still offshore. That could be a 850mb/700mb vort depicted. djmike...the only model suggesting that the trough will not pick up 07 is the Euro and it takes most of the 'weather' associated with 07 NE while the 850mb vort turns inland to NE Mexico with a building ridge, IMO.

[unome]

unome...no, radar suggests the 'center' is still offshore. That could be a 850mb/700mb vort depicted. djmike...the only model suggesting that the trough will not pick up 07 is the Euro and it takes most of the 'weather' associated with 07 NE while the 850mb vort turns inland to NE Mexico with a building ridge, IMO.

thanks Srain

[biggerbyte]

My concern is this becoming a slow moving coastal hugger all the way to SW LA. It could also move inland and move NNE, or NE. There are a few possibilities with Ex TD7. These are just a couple. Using visual alone, I'd call a TD or min. TS at this point. If not yet, then soon, providing it stays offshore.

[Alvin Girl]

When will RECON report back with its findings? I'm guessing this will be in the 4 p.m. update.....very interested to see what they have found and to see the models.

[Rip76]

Bigger I agree.
Although, my yard and foundation could use a coastal hugger about right now.

[srainhoutx]

When will RECON report back with its findings? I'm guessing this will be in the 4 p.m. update.....very interested to see what they have found and to see the models.

RECON is inbound from the NE at this time around 5000 ft or 850mb level and should be near the 'center', if there is one, within 15 minutes or so. That would give the NHC time to upgrade before the next Advisory is scheduled.

[wxman57]

I don't think this is going to track to Louisiana. More likely it'll dissipate over Mexico and some of its moisture will track NE up the front. Recon is finding quite light wind NE of the low, only about 15 kts so far. Not sure they'll find a tight enough circulation to upgrade it today.

[srainhoutx]

I don't think this is going to track to Louisiana. More likely it'll dissipate over Mexico and some of its moisture will track NE up the front. Recon is finding quite light wind NE of the low, only about 15 kts so far. Not sure they'll find a tight enough circulation to upgrade it today.

Oops. Last set of obs suggest otherwise. It appears we may well have a TD at least.

000
URNT15 KNHC 172031
AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 18 20120817
202300 2056N 09615W 9771 00296 0105 +239 +225 076017 017 019 001 00
202330 2054N 09616W 9773 00292 0105 +239 +228 077017 017 019 001 00
202400 2052N 09616W 9772 00294 0105 +237 +232 075016 017 019 001 00
202430 2051N 09616W 9772 00294 0105 +237 +227 076016 017 018 000 00
202500 2049N 09615W 9773 00293 0104 +241 +213 077017 018 018 000 00
202530 2047N 09615W 9775 00290 0104 +237 +225 075016 017 017 000 00
202600 2045N 09615W 9772 00293 0102 +235 +227 067017 017 018 000 00
202630 2044N 09615W 9774 00288 0100 +236 +229 061017 018 018 000 00
202700 2042N 09614W 9771 00290 0098 +236 +227 051016 017 018 000 00
202730 2040N 09614W 9773 00287 0097 +236 +229 043016 017 017 001 00
202800 2039N 09613W 9772 00284 0093 +240 +221 033019 020 021 001 00
202830 2037N 09612W 9773 00279 0087 +244 +219 024023 024 025 000 00
202900 2035N 09611W 9774 00272 0081 +244 +224 020028 029 029 001 00
202930 2034N 09610W 9778 00259 0071 +240 +240 017029 030 031 001 01
203000 2032N 09610W 9774 00254 0062 +246 +233 004031 032 033 000 00
203030 2031N 09609W 9769 00254 0055 +247 +240 343029 031 035 002 00
203100 2029N 09608W 9773 00247 0052 +250 +246 310027 029 035 000 00
203130 2028N 09606W 9768 00258 0058 +247 +244 281031 034 032 002 00
203200 2027N 09605W 9771 00263 0067 +240 +240 257044 049 042 004 01
203230 2025N 09604W 9762 00279 0077 +230 +230 246046 048 042 004 05
$$
;

[wxman57]

Yeah, interesting winds on the last recon. We were estimating that the center was just about on the coast. So much for getting home any time soon.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah, interesting winds on the last recon. So much for getting home any time soon.

I know you had pretty much given up on that bike ride tomorrow anyway.

[wxman57]

Yeah, interesting winds on the last recon. So much for getting home any time soon.

I know you had pretty much given up on that bike ride tomorrow anyway.

Haven't given up yet. If the storm moves inland tonight/tomorrow and stays there/dissipates then it won't be a big deal for any of our clients.