Post-Tropical Cyclone Gordon: E of the Azores

[srainhoutx]

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012081000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932012
AL, 93, 2012080818, , BEST, 0, 139N, 85W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080900, , BEST, 0, 140N, 97W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080906, , BEST, 0, 141N, 122W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 144N, 140W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 148N, 155W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012081000, , BEST, 0, 151N, 171W, 25, 1004, DB, 34,

[srainhoutx]

I believe that it is safe to say that 93L is just a bit to far N to be a threat to anyone...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE PAST WEEK HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED
ENOUGH PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
COLD...THE CONVECTION IS DEEP ENOUGH TO MEET THE CRITERIA FOR
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH ARE T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE 18Z
CLASSIFICATIONS. ALSO...A RECENT UW-CIMSS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE INDICATES THE INTENSITY IS NEAR 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE
INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/16 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF VISIBLE
AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
CAPTURED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

THE DEPRESSION HAS A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION THAT IS SURROUNDED
BY VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER
FAVORABLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND IN A
LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO ACHIEVE HURRICANE STATUS WOULD BE
BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF STRONG WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BELOW THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE
EFFECTS OF THE SURROUNDING DRY ENVIRONMENT...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL
WHICH SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND...
THEREFORE...SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 29.9N 55.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 31.6N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 33.5N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 34.6N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 35.0N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 35.2N 38.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 36.6N 29.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 38.8N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 16 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC WITH THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CIRCULAR AREA OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY. AN AVERAGE OF THESE TWO
ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. GORDON ONLY
HAS A DAY OR SO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN
BEGIN...BUT GORDON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM BY THE
TIME IT MOVES THROUGH THE AZORES IN 3 DAYS. ONCE GORDON MOVE EAST OF
THE AZORES...IT SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 085 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS...WELL
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN WELL
ESTABLISHED...GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK
MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AZORES. MODELS ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE
WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BRINGS GORDON THROUGH THE AZORES IN ABOUT 3
DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 34.6N 50.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 34.9N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 34.8N 43.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 34.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 34.5N 35.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 36.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 39.0N 21.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0000Z 41.0N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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