Tropical Depression Isaac:

[skidog40]

releasing all outer bands. and...mmm is this mic on.

[skidog40]

someone please tell me what you see?

[unome]

you can almost see this poor kid cringe when he has to read "farther west into Louisiana" and he knows it should be "east"...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing

[unome]

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi

Heard many tidal gages on LA coast got within foot or two of record. How does a cat one challenge cat 3 and 4s. Answer it wasnt a cat 1

http://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi

someone needs to remind him the hurricane wind scale does not include surge

I do think they should give out the IKE rating in their forecasts, I believe Integrated Kinetic Energy is a more accurate reflection of it's destructive power

HRD wind analysis from 1930Z on Aug 28th - IKE info is at the bottom of image

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

...ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...SEVERE WEATHER...AND HIGH
WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 91.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[txflagwaver]

Ike was the same way...a Cat 2 with the surge of a Cat 3 or 4.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Isaac continues to bring flooding rainfall and storm surge to the LA and MS coast.

Overnight strong SSW winds have surged the waters within Lake Pontchartrain northward away from New Orleans and into the northern shore of the lake. Severe storm surge flooding of 5-7 feet is currently in progress from the western side of the lake to the eastern side of the lake including the cities of Slidell, Mandeville, and LaPlace. Early this morning a levee was breached near a pump station in the City of Slidell and while the pump station continues to operate, it cannot keep out with the influx of water and portions of the city are now flooding with 3-5 feet of water…all locations in the city at an elevation below 9 ft will be subject to flooding. Overtopping also occurred late yesterday afternoon in St John the Baptist Parish and around LaPlace where at least 1000 residents are still being rescues from their rooftops.

Initial water level readings on the west side of Lake Pontchartrain include that record high storm surge levels may have been produced and flooding west of New Orleans and on the north shore of the lake is equal if not greater than hurricane Katrina and hurricane Gustav. These high water levels are a function of the storm track, as Isaac passed to the south and then west of Lake Pontchartrain allowing a continuous feed of sea water on SE winds into the lake. Hurricane Katrina passed just east of the lake initially pushing sea water in from the east, then sloshing that surge southward on the west side of the eye against the New Orleans levees. Waters levels in portions of Plaquemines Parish are only 3-5 feet lower than Hurricane Katrina 13-14 vs 17-19.

I cannot emphasize enough how poorly the Saffir Simpson scale it at relating storm impacts and the fact that this was only a Category 1 hurricane appears to have resulted in residents not heeding the evacuation orders. The focus during landfalling tropical cyclones must be on the impacts and NOT the category of the storm….the category only suggest wind damage impacts and has no relation on the storm surge or rainfall flood threat. Every hurricane is different, a slow moving large weak hurricane like Isaac can produce significant impacts as shown due to the far reaching effects and the continuous adverse conditions. Below are listed the storm surge values expected for the various portions of the affected coast as issued in an e-mail on Monday at 140pm. As you can see the values for Plaquemines Parish are highlighted in red (7-11ft), with the levees only 8ft tall it was highly likely that they would be overtopped.

SE LA (from the mouth of the MS River west to near Houma): 6-9 ft
SE LA (from the mouth of the MS River to the LA/MS state line): 7-11 ft
SE LA (Lake Pontchartrain): 5-8 ft
MS coast: 8-12 ft
AL coast: 6-10 ft
FL panhandle: 3-6 ft

Storm surge values along the coast will subside today as onshore winds weaken however areas where levees have been overtopped will take days to drain.

Isaac will continue to move inland and weaken however large feeder bands on the east side of the system will continue to produce flooding rainfall over MS and E LA. As the center moves NNW tonight into southern AR, the potential for core rainfall will increase. The threat will be shifting to fresh water flooding as Isaac moves north into AR , MO, and IL over the next 48 hours. While much of this region is suffering in severe drought, the very heavy rainfall of a tropical system in a short period of time can lead to flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 6-15 inches will be possible along the track of Isaac.

[cperk]

Ike was the same way...a Cat 2 with the surge of a Cat 3 or 4.

We were constantly warned not to be fooled by Ike's category,but watch out for the storm surge such a large storm can produce.

[srainhoutx]

Fort Polk Long Range Radar:

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

...ISAAC SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA BUT STILL
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...SEVERE WEATHER...AND HIGH WATER LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 92.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MONROE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM NW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

[Belmer]

Well, goodbye, Isaac! You have been one trouble storm to follow and I'm sure not only gave myself, but many other headaches along the way. It was good to see so many members and guest on this forum as Isaac approached the Gulf states and glad that so many are able to come to this forum for information with our wonderful pro mets and other great members we have on this board that bring vital information to us all.
I think I am ready to say goodbye to Hurricane Season 2012 and bring on Winter 2012/2013 ...of course, the "peak" of Hurricane season this year hasn't even came by.

Time to get back in college mode. Take care everyone!

[djmike]

I slept sooo good lastnight! Even went to be early for a change since not staying up just about 24/7 watching Isaac! Few more storms out there now, but I think I'll wait till the CONUS is possibly threatend....This was a fun CRAZY storm! .....Praying for LA. Continuosly checking on my family too in Slidell....they have lost their home to all the flooding!

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 39...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT

...SLOW-MOVING ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...
...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 92.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF MONROE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SSE OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL COASTAL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092012
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 52 MILES...83 KM...SE OF FORT SMITH.
ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...W OF LITTLE ROCK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
IN ADDITION TO EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS.
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREAS OF ARKANSAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI COASTLINES.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
THESE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HEAVY
RAINS WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE ONGOING
DROUGHT WILL TEND TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DOWN
INITIALLY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER TIME.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT

...ALABAMA...
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW                    11.07                     
MOBILE/BATES FIELD                   9.67                     
WILMER 7.9 SE                        8.75                     
FAIRHOPE 2.3 N                       6.42                     
DAPHNE 1.8 ESE                       5.87                     
THEODORE 8.0 SSE                     5.12                     
POINT CLEAR 1.6 SSW                  5.04                     
SILVERHILL 0.9 SSE                   4.34                     
FOLEY 2.0 SSW                        3.71                     

...ARKANSAS...
MONTICELLO AIRPORT                   2.91                     
PINE BLUFF/GRIDER FIELD              2.63                     
EL DORADO/GOODWIN FIELD              1.71                     

...FLORIDA...
VERO BEACH 5.2 S                    16.60                     
ROYAL PALM BEACH 5.0 W              16.29                     
BOYNTON BEACH 1.9 NNW               14.41                     
PORT ST LUCIE 1.5 NE                13.04                     
ABERDEEN 4.2 NNW                    12.41                     
PALM CITY 4.0 SW                    11.69                     
HOMESTEAD AFB                        9.37                     
FORT PIERCE/ST LUCIE                 9.18                     
WEST PALM BEACH INTL ARPT            8.64                     
VERO BEACH MUNI ARPT                 7.66                     
FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE APT        7.02                     
MIAMI/OPA LOCKA                      6.64                     
POMPANO BEACH AIRPARK                5.33                     
WINTER HAVEN GILBERT ARPT            5.19                     
ORLANDO/HERNDON                      5.12                     
HOLLYWOOD/NORTH PERRY ARPT           5.12                     

...GEORGIA...
GUYTON 1.9 S                         5.60                     
BROOKLET 13.1 SE                     4.60                     
RINCON 1.2 NNW                       4.03                     
MONROE 5.6 NNE                       3.11                     
JESUP 7.1 N                          3.04                     
AUGUSTA/BUSH FIELD                   2.53                     
ALMA/BACON CO. ARPT                  2.49                     
SAVANNAH MUNI ARPT                   2.47                     
FORT STEWART/WRIGHT AAF              2.06                     
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD                 1.95                     
MOODY AFB/VALDOSTA                   1.50                     

...LOUISIANA...
NEW ORLEANS                         20.08                     
RESERVE 0.5 SSE                     13.46                     
LIVINGSTON                          13.16                     
HAMMOND 2.3 WSW                     11.93                     
TERRYTOWN 3.3 S                     10.56                     
SLIDELL                             10.40                     
ABITA SPRINGS 1.9 NE                10.15                     
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT           4.57                     
BOOTHVILLE                           4.20                     
MONROE RGNL ARPT                     2.37                     
PATTERSON MEMORIAL ARPT              2.00                     
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT                  1.55                     
ALEXANDRIA/ESLER                     1.50                     

...MISSISSIPPI...
KILN 3.3 N                          17.04                     
MARION RAWS/COLUMBIA                15.02                     
SAUCIER 1.7 NNE                     12.78                     
PICAYUNE 5.6 ENE                    12.17                     
DIAMONDHEAD 1.5 NE                  12.04                     
LONG BEACH 0.7 S                    11.95                     
MCCOMB/LEWIS FIELD                  10.93                     
GULFPORT-BILOXI                     10.85                     
PASCAGOULA                          10.67                     
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI                  10.17                     
HATTIESBURG/CHAIN MUNI ARPT          9.44                     
HATTIESBURG/LAUREL                   7.93                     
JACKSON/HAWKINS FIELD                4.03                     
MERIDIAN/KEY FIELD                   4.00                     
JACKSON WFO                          3.93                     
MERIDIAN NAS/MCCAIN                  1.72                     

...NORTH CAROLINA...
WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO. ARPT      4.07                     
JACKSONVILLE/ELLIS AIRPORT           1.50                     

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
MOUNT PLEASANT 5.5 NNE               9.08                     
PAWLEYS ISLAND 5.6 NNE               8.36                     
CHARLESTON 2.8 NE                    7.36                     
JOHNS ISLAND 9.0 SE                  6.44                     
MEGGETT 1.8 W                        4.85                     
BEAUFORT MCAS                        3.59                     
ROCK HILL-YORK CO. ARPT              2.89                     
DARLINGTON                           1.75                     


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER FANNING

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 31/0900Z 34.7N 93.9W
12HR VT 31/1800Z 36.0N 93.8W
24HR VT 01/0600Z 37.4N 93.3W...
36HR VT 01/1800Z 38.2N 92.6W...
48HR VT 02/0600Z 38.8N 90.9W...
72HR VT 03/0600Z 40.0N 87.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 04/0600Z 40.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 05/0600Z 42.5N 73.0W