Hurricane Sandy: Northern Bahamas Heading NW

[srainhoutx]

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AL, 99, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 146N, 728W, 25, 1008, DB, 34,

[srainhoutx]

RECON has been tasked for 99L...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 20 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-154

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 21/2100Z                    A. 22/1200Z   
       B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST          B. AFXXX 02EEA INVEST
       C. 21/1630Z                    C. 22/0730Z
       D. 16.0N 77.0W                 D. 16.0N 78.0W
       E. 21/2030Z TO 21/2330Z        E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1400Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 12 HOUR FIXES 
       AT 23/0000Z NEAR 16.0N 79.0W IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.

[srainhoutx]

The RECON mission tasked for today has been cancelled. 99L is looking rather sickly and will likely take some time to develop. Currently wind shear is hampering any development and being a monsoonal trough origination disturbance, it will likely take some time for conditions to improve enough for any real development if at all...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 21 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-155

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 22/1800Z                    A. 23/1200Z   
       B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
       C. 22/1330Z                    C. 23/0730Z
       D. 13.8N 78.5W                 D. 14.2N 78.6W
       E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2030Z        E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1400Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES 
       IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
    3. REMARKS:  THE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 21/2100Z WAS
       CANCELED BY NHC AT 21/1230Z.  THE 22/1200Z INVEST IN TCPOD 
       12-154 HAS BEEN RE-TASKED FOR 22/1800Z AS SPECIFIED ABOVE.

[srainhoutx]

99L 18Z Tracks and Intensity:

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA
SHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN
FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID
CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND
ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA
96H 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[srainhoutx]

LOL...

[Belmer]

Dear lord. Wouldn't that be something.
My oh my.

[tireman4]

Holy Macaroni!!!

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. SANDY IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON
WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

12Z Tracks & Intensity:

[Ptarmigan]

Based on satellite, looks like Sandy could undergo rapid intensification. If the EURO forecast holds for, New York City could be in for some nasty storms and storm surge.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT
4 HOURS AGO INDICATED 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 986 MB. SINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION
WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED
THE CENTER OF SANDY AND NOAA BUOY 42058 RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 KT WITH A GUST TO 64 KT MORE THAN 160 N MI
EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 60 KT.

SANDY IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH NOW...OR 010/12 KT. THE
FORECAST SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH
48-72 HOURS. SANDY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS OR MERGES WITH A POTENT MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH THAT IS SLIDING EASTWARD. AFTER 72 HR...SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE
NORTH AND WEST AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15...AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UP UNTIL SANDY MAKES LANDFALL ON
JAMAICA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...LAND INTERACTION WITH
JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...COMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING THAT TYPICALLY OCCURS UNDER SUCH
NEGATIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN SHOWING A 60-KT INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS
AND THE CYCLONE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND
THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48-72 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AMOUNT OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.3N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.9N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR JAMAICA
24H 25/0600Z 20.6N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND EASTERN CUBA
36H 25/1800Z 23.3N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 26/0600Z 25.7N 76.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.2N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 31.0N 73.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 33.4N 70.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Portastorm]

Wow ... I'm just stunned by what the 0z Euro shows. I don't know if I've ever seen that model show such a dramatic impact on CONUS. If that verifies ... this storm will easily go down in history as one of the great ones, er, great disasters.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Tracks & Intensity:

[srainhoutx]

It appears we have Hurricane Sandy...

URNT12 KNHC 241407
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 24/13:27:50Z
B. 16 deg 51 min N
076 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2930 m
D. 65 kt
E. 029 deg 15 nm
F. 123 deg 63 kt
G. 032 deg 19 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C / 3012 m
J. 16 C / 3049 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. OPEN WNW
M. C48
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0418A SANDY OB 13
MAX FL WIND 69 KT SE QUAD 11:59:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 66 KT SW QUAD 13:36:30Z
Ragged eyewall

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 76.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN
JAMAICA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[unome]

it actually looks better AFTER going over Jamaica !

[srainhoutx]

10242012_2132_goes13_x_vis1km_high_18LSANDY_70kts-973mb-177N-767W_91pc.jpg

[unome]

Cuba radar, not sure how long it will work

[TexasBreeze]

Amazing that that storm has support from Ecmwf too with Gfs trending towards it. It will be large in size.