East Coast High Impact Hurricane/Post Tropical Storm Sandy

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12Z GFS msl pressure and surface wind gusts:

[Andrew]

Another update from Jeff:

Historic storm system heading for the mid Atlantic and NE US.

Potentially life threatening destructive storm surge event for the New Jersey and New York coasts.

Discussion:
The transition of Sandy from a pure tropical cyclone toward more of mid-latitude cyclone has begun. Sandy is still located near the northern Bahamas this morning, but satellite and radar images along with recon data suggest that the system has made the expected turn toward the NNE and this motion should continue with an increase in forward speed. Aircraft data also shows the wind field is greatly expanding with TS force winds extending outward 435 miles from the center with the highest winds located across the western and northwestern flank of the circulation where sporadic deep convection is found.

Across the north Atlantic and the US, the upper air pattern continues to “block” with massive high pressure building over eastern Canada and a strong trough (our cold front) pressing into the eastern US. A shortwave over the western states this morning will swing through the base of the main trough and tilt it from SE to NW over the SE and mid Atlantic starting tomorrow. Sandy will become captured by this titling and instead of pushed out to sea, make a hard left turn (NW) back toward the US mid-Atlantic and NE US coast between the trough to her SW and the blocking high to her NE. Global guidance is in very good agreement on this pattern and in fact has very little spread in the track solution given the complex interactions that will be in place. Models show Sandy moving NW to WNW toward the New Jersey coast and making landfall Monday night or Tuesday morning and then slowing down as she moves inland.

As for intensity, Sandy is gradually taking on more and more mid latitude influences although her center core remains “warm” or tropical. Jet stream phasing with the system is starting to occur with temperature gradient developing on her outer flanks of the large circulation. As Sandy moves northward this process will intensify has the warm Caribbean air mass clashes with a very cold polar air mass resulting in strong baroclinic intensification. Sandy will also be located in the favorable region of the trough and jet stream axis to promote surface deepening of a cyclone. Models continue to advertise “incredibly” low pressures with the ECMWF showing a record 942mb low near landfall on the New Jersey coast which is an astounding 30mb lower than the 1991 Perfect Storm and 6mb lower than anything ever recorded in the NE US.

Given the continued very good model agreement on both track and the forecasted extreme low pressures, confidence is building that an extremely rare powerful storm system will impact the NE and mid-Atlantic coast from Sunday-Thursday.

Impacts:
Major travel disruption is likely as numerous major E coast airports will not be able to sustain operations and this will have ripple effects across the nation. Additionally, widespread power outages and down trees will greatly hamper surface and rail travel across the entire region with widespread and potentially prolonged impacts to commerce.

This will be a long duration multi-day event with prolonged impacts over the entire area from North Carolina to Canada and extending inland into the OH valley affecting some 55-65 million people.

Coastal flooding or storm surge flooding appears to be significant especially for the New Jersey and New York (NYC and Long Island) coasts. The angle of approach this storm will be taking from (SE to NW) strikes the coast at a right angle instead of the usual grazing by of the coast most storms in this region take (SW to NE or parallel to the coast). This direct hit on the coast will drive onshore winds and massive amounts of Atlantic seawater toward the central and northern New Jersey coast and into the “L” shaped New York Bight area of southern New York City and western Long Island (a worst case track for this area, that has never occurred before with this strong of a storm system). The fetch of wind across the entire north Atlantic will drive large waves and surge to the coast and this will last for several high tide cycles. Tides will be at their maximum due to the full moon on Monday. Massive beach erosion is likely with coastal structures experiences significant damage many to the point of total collapse. Seawater inundation will be extensive and widespread and long lasting and in some places potentially record setting. Due to the rare track of this storm, some locations that have never before experienced coastal flooding, may flood with this event.

Winds of 50-60mph with gust to 70-80mph will battered a wide area for 24-48 hours. Expect widespread tree damage and power outages which could rival some of the largest power outages ever in the US. The prolonged nature of the event will result in trees giving way over time as the ground saturates from the heavy rainfall. Winds will be higher in an near tall high rise buildings where funneling will take place. Structure damage will be mainly from trees falling into buildings and to roofs from the wind itself.

Rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches will be common over a very large area with totals of 8-12 inches over New Jersey into southern PA and New York. Isolated amounts of 15 inches are possible as the tropical moisture from Sandy’s air mass crashes into the eastern slopes of the mountains and a stalled frontal boundary. Rainfall of this magnitude over an area of steep terrain will produce life threatening flash flooding and major river flooding.

Ocean seas will be building to staggering heights over the next few days. Already buoys north of the Bahamas have been reporting 30 foot seas, and Wave Watch III guidance is maxed out at 42-48 foot seas over the NW Atlantic Ocean by early next week. The expanding area of strong winds of 50-60mph and the massive fetch of wind all the way from Europe will produce very large swells. Would not be surprised to see reports of wave greater than 50-60 feet over the NW Atlantic. Some of this wave action and energy will be directed toward the US coastline and this will worsen the beach erosion. Large wave setup will also trap water levels near the coast and worsen the coastal flooding threat.

On the extreme SW flank of the storm heavy wet snow will fall over parts of OH and WV with totals of 1-2 feet possible.

Power outages will likely last for 1-2 weeks or longer

Large scale evacuation orders for the New Jersey coast will be underway today with portions of New York also likely requiring evacuation due to the potential for coastal storm surge inundation.

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18Z Tracks & Intensity:

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10272012_1955_goes13_x_vis2km_18LSANDY_65kts-961mb-298N-756W_97pc.jpg

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HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO
AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO
NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND
HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY
HAVE CAUSED THE RECENT WEAKENING OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THE
AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT MADE ITS FINAL PASS THROUGH SANDY AROUND 1800
UTC AND REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 961 MB. WIND DATA
FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND A RECENT DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT
CONDUCTING A SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND SANDY SUPPORT MAINTAINING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST
REASONING. SANDY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL
INTERACT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 48 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND SANDY IS LIKELY TO HAVE COMPLETED ITS
TRANSFORMATION TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.
AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. SANDY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN TURN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH. ONCE AGAIN...DRAWING A
STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN THE 48- AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POINTS DOES NOT
QUITE DEPICT HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO COME TO LONG
ISLAND. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE
EXACT TRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE
IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 30.2N 75.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 31.5N 73.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 33.4N 72.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 35.4N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 37.9N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1800Z 40.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1800Z 42.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1800Z 45.5N 74.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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Code: Select all

Hurricane Sandy’s Transition to a Post-Tropical Cyclone
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues advisories, forecasts, and warnings on tropical
cyclones - the generic term for hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions. Sometime
prior to making landfall, Hurricane Sandy is expected to lose its characteristics as a tropical
cyclone and take on the structure of a wintertime low-pressure area. Because the National
Hurricane Center only issues advisories on tropical cyclones, there will be changes in the flow of
information coming out of the NWS when this transition occurs.
The primary difference between a tropical cyclone and a wintertime cyclone is the energy
source. Tropical cyclones extract heat from the ocean and grow by releasing that heat in the
atmosphere near the storm center. Wintertime cyclones (also called extratropical or frontal
lows), on the other hand, get most of their energy from temperature contrasts in the
atmosphere, and this energy usually gets distributed over larger areas. Because of these
differences, tropical cyclones tend to have more compact wind fields, tend to be more
symmetric, and have a well-defined inner core of strong winds. Wintertime lows have strong
temperature contrasts or fronts attached to them, have a broader wind field, and more complex
distributions of rain or snow.
The official NWS term for a tropical cyclone that has evolved into something else is “Posttropical
cyclone”, where the post in post-tropical simply means after. Thus, once Sandy loses
its tropical cyclone status it will be known as “Post-tropical Cyclone Sandy” in NWS products.
Some aspects of this transition are already occurring, and NWS forecasts of storm impacts are
based on this expected evolution. Regardless of when this transition formally occurs, Sandy is
expected to bring significant wind, surge, rainfall and inland flooding hazards over an extremely
large area, and snowfall to more limited areas.
Because Sandy is expected to make this transition before reaching the coast, the NWS has
been using non-tropical wind watches and warnings, issued by local NWS Weather Forecast
Offices (WFOs), to communicate the wind threat posed by Sandy in the Mid-Atlantic States and
New England. (This is why NHC’s tropical storm warnings extend only into North Carolina.)
The NWS plans to continue using non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local offices in
the Mid-Atlantic States and northward throughout this event. By using non-tropical warnings in
these areas from the start, we avoid or minimize the significant confusion that could occur if the
warning suite changed from tropical to non-tropical in the middle of the event.
When NHC determines that Sandy has become post-tropical, NHC advisory products will cease.
The NWS will ensure a continuing flow of information through the following:
• NWS WFOs will continue, as they already are, to provide detailed information on local
impacts through their regular products. The non-tropical watches and warnings that are
in place at the time will remain in effect through the transition.
• The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) will take over issuance of Public
Advisories on Post-tropical Cyclone Sandy every six hours, under the same product
headers as NHC Public Advisories. The HPC Public Advisories will include similar
information to the NHC Public Advisory on the current location and strength of the storm,
as well as information on the various hazards (wind, surge, and precipitation). The HPC
Public Advisories will also contain a track forecast.
• Assuming Sandy becomes post-tropical while its center is still over water, the Ocean
Prediction Center (OPC) will discuss the storm in its Marine Weather Discussion. The
Marine Weather Discussion will also include the same track forecast contained in the
HPC Public Advisory.
• OPC will host a web page for storm support. This page will contain a graphic showing
the forecast track of the storm and other information specific to Sandy.
• While NHC's web page will no longer display forecast information about Sandy once
responsibility is transferred to other offices, the NHC web page (www.hurricanes.gov)
will prominently display a collection of links to the other offices’ products, such as HPC’s
Public Advisories and precipitation forecast graphics, OPC’s support page and their
Marine Weather Discussion, storm surge information from NOAA’s Meteorological
Development Laboratory, current water levels data, and regional weather graphics from
weather.gov.
• NHC will continue to lead the coordination between NHC, HPC, OPC, and the WFOs
throughout the event to ensure consistency of information throughout the NWS.
• NHC will continue to lead the NWS’s coordination with FEMA.
In the event Sandy remains a tropical cyclone through landfall, NHC advisories and products
would of course continue. There would be no transition, however, from non-tropical wind
warnings issued by the WFOs back to Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warnings issued by
NHC, since both sets of warnings describe the same wind hazard.
Contact: NHC Public Affairs nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov
October 27, 2012

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_p ... sition.pdf

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12Z Tracks & Intensity:

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HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MISSIONS THIS MORNING HAVE REVEALED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INTENSITY OR OVERALL STRUCTURE OF SANDY...EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BENE AS LOW AS 951 MB. THE AIRCRAFT DATA...
ALONG WITH DATA FROM SHIPS...BUOYS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATION SITES
INDICATE...HOWEVER...THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 150 N MI TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO ABOUT
200 N MI IN THAT SAME QUADRANT. BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TRACK WOBBLES BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 045/12 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A
STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVED EASTWARD TOWARD THE
U.S. EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE TROUGH UNDERCUTS
SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS WITHIN 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN THE 12 TO 36-HOUR
PERIOD AND SANDY IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS
GREATER THAN 25C. AS A RESULT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SANDY TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY WHEN
IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULFSTREAM TONIGHT. BY 36 HOURS...
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS
UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING...AND A TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE
OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL...
THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...INDICATE
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 32.5N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 34.0N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 36.4N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 38.7N 72.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 40.1N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1200Z 41.3N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1200Z 44.5N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z 46.6N 73.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Unprecedented cyclone impact to the NE US and mid Atlantic over the next 72 hours will require a significant and coordinated local, state and federal response.

Life threatening record breaking storm surge event likely for northern New Jersey and New York Harbor including Long Island Sound, the Hudson River, and Raritan Bay.

Preparations to protect life and property must be completed by dark today…failure to comply with mandatory evacuation orders will place lives in danger.

Hurricane Sandy becomes the second largest tropical cyclone ever in the Atlantic basin with tropical storm force winds extending outward 520 miles from the center and hurricane force winds 175 miles from the center.

Discussion:
Unfortunately, historic ingredients coming together exactly as forecasting models have predicted to bring a massive and highly destructive storm to the eastern 1/3rd of the United States.

Hurricane Sandy moving to the NE this morning well off the North Carolina coast however tropical storm force winds and high seas are battering the eastern part of North Carolina and spreading northward toward the lower DELMARVA area. Latest recon passes indicate a central pressure down to 951mb or nearly equal to Hurricane Ike….only much larger in size. The wind field continues to expand outward as Sandy is increasingly coming under more mid latitude influences however deep convection is being maintained near the center of the system and Sandy remains a tropical cyclone at this time.

There is little spread now in the forecast track of Sandy and its post tropical “mega” storm with nearly all available meteorological tools showing the center of the system crossing the central New Jersey coast Monday evening near the time of high tide! The GFS is forecasting an absolutely astounding 53mb pressure fall in 6 hrs along the New Jersey coast Monday evening as this storm moves ashore.

Forecasted central pressures for the system as it makes landfall look to break historical pressure records which range from the mid to low 960’s for nearly all the major eastern US cities. For comparison, the current central pressure of Sandy would break all pressure records in this part of the country by 10-15mb. The current 951mb pressure is already significantly lower than the 1991 Perfect Storm: 972mb and the superstorm of 1993: 960mb both of which crippled the eastern US.

Impacts:

Storm Surge
A “worst case” track for life threatening and devastating storm surge is likely for northern New Jersey and New York City including Long Island and Long Island Sound. It is likely that Sandy will be moving onshore Monday evening very near the lunar high tide peak only worsening the potential for record breaking storm surge. Extra-tropical storm surge modeling is producing record values for the northern New Jersey coast at Sandy Hook and at the NYC Battery. The previous Sandy Hook, NJ record is 10.1 ft in 1960, and the forecast for Monday evening is a peak surge of 11-12 feet. Surge values at the western end of Long Island Sound pushing toward eastern New York City are on the order of 11-13 feet and 10-11 feet at “The Battery” in NYC. For comparison, Hurricane Irene last year produced about a 6 foot storm surge into western Long Island Sound and NYC. This is a perfect setup for a large and destructive sea water inundation event over the north New Jersey and New York coast. Areas that have never flooded before will likely flood with sea water in this event and it is likely that sea water will enter and flood the New York City subway system.

Wave watch III models and local SWAN modeling shows massive offshore waves of 25-40 ft breaking at 15 feet on the beaches. Dune protection will be completely destroyed and as the storm surge and high tide peak Monday evening, large and destructive wave action will be aimed into coastal structures….many structures will be battered to the point of total collapse or washed into the ocean. Surge and wave action will likely overtop the Jersey boardwalk and seawall protection especially along the northern New Jersey coast.

On a scale of 0-6, this storm has a 5.2 storm surge damage rating!

Winds:
Strong winds will begin to arrive on the coast this evening and spread inland on Monday with the greatest winds expected Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Sustained winds of 35-50mph with frequent gust to 65-80mph will occur from the DELMARVA To southern New England and well inland over much of the NE US, eastern Canada, and portions of the OH valley. Winds will batter this area for 20-48 hours producing a long duration event. Trees and power lines will give way over time and suspect that this storm will produce one of the largest if not the largest power outages ever in the US. It is likely that over 10-20 million persons will be without power as this storm passes. Power restoration and debris clean up will take weeks!

Rainfall:
Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches will be common over a large area of the NE US and mid-Atlantic resulting in major inland flooding. Isolated totals of 12 inches will be possible over the DELMARVA. Historically flood prone areas will likely experience flooding with rivers and creeks possibly recording major flooding levels.

Snow:
Heavy wet snow will be possible on the backside of the system over portions of WV and eastern OH as the cold air sweeps into the backside of the system. Totals of 12-18 inches will be possible, but due to the wet nature of the event, trees will likely be brought down due to the weight of the snow.

Significant and potentially long term disruptions in travel are likely!

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12Z GFS...storm surge and coastal flooding potential are very concerning with this storm, IMO...

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...
...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 71.9W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE
BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW
JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND
RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT
A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 62
MPH...100 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW REACHED THE
MOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Katdaddy]

From the Philadelphia/Mt Holly,NJ NWS Briefing regarding Hurricane Sandy. They are doing an excellent job of getting the word out.

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY OF SANDY HAS OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AT
951-952 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 78 KT WERE MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...BUT NO
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WERE DETECTED IN ANY
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD OF
SANDY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT MISSED SOME OF THE POCKETS
OF STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13 KT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN NEARLY ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...SO THERE
REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE
HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL FORECASTS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN
DECREASING...AND SOME WEAK OUTFLOW IS NOW APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A RESULT SANDY IS EXPECTED
MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE
HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 25C. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME BAROCLINIC DEEPENING AS SANDY
BEGINS ITS TURN TOWARD THE COAST. A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS
TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 33.4N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 35.0N 70.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 37.7N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 39.5N 74.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 30/1800Z 40.2N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z 42.7N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1800Z 44.7N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z 45.6N 71.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Incredible storm heading for the NE US.

Life threatening record storm surge flooding very likely. Significant inundation of NE New Jersey and portions of New York City likely causing incredible damage well into the billions of dollars

Portions of the impacted area will be uninhabitable for weeks.

Visible Image showing the size of Sandy….larger than the entire southern plains and the entire state of TX.

Link to extra-tropical surge forecast points:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ind ... &region=ne

Forecasted Water Rise at New York City (almost 11ft). Record is 10.5ft:

Forecasted Water Level Rise at Sandy Hook, NJ…almost 12 ft. Record is 10.1ft.

Tropical storm force winds extend from the US coast all the way past Bermuda.

10282012 Jeff image002.gif (26.09 KiB) Viewed 5120 times

[srainhoutx]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE
BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS
FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE
OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO
IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT
THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU
MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR
RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS
ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

[jcarr]

OK..if this does not make people take notice I do not know what will

[djjordan]

I am just amazed at the shear strength and size of Sandy. It's not often that you see in a Hurricane Advisory that they talk about snow from the storm as well. And some incredible amounts at that. This is history in the making. I hope everyone doesn't think this is overhyped. It's not. Folks at the NWS Mount Holly are doing an excellent job ... kind of reminds me of some of the warnings that came out of NWS New Orleans before Katrina hit.

[biggerbyte]

Hype? Maybe. In terms of the storm itself, she will go in as a minimal hurricane. I've been reading some of the terms and words that are being thrown around about Sandy across various places on the Internet, and they are borderline rediculous. In terms of impact, however, this could turn out to be quite the event. A few things are coming together to potentially give these folks some things to talk about. I would hate to be living in that area right now. We'll see how that all plays out. As far as Sandy goes, she is NOT going to be this massively strong hurricane. Keep in mind, though, that she does not have to be to create a huge mess.