EPAC Discussion. TD 6 E Forms

[srainhoutx]

Interesting spin off Central America. Some models suggest an area of Low Pressure develops. We shall see...

[wxdata]

Not too surprising as we are only two weeks and a few days away from the start of the east Pacific hurricane season (May 15.) Since 2000 the eastern Pacific has averaged one or two May named storms.

[srainhoutx]

Something to watch in the EPAC...perhaps this is the area that guidance has been sniffing in the W Caribbean for over a week...



ABPZ20 KNHC 251131
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 25 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[srainhoutx]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 25 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED JUST OT THE WEST OF
NICARAGUA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[srainhoutx]

Now 90E has been declared...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201005251844
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010052518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902010
EP, 90, 2010052518, , BEST, 0, 123N, 928W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[biggerbyte]

Oh boy... It has begun. Welcome to hurricane season 2010.

[srainhoutx]

[Hardcoreweather]

GFDL

[Paul]

nothing will survive the cross over. Look at the shear.....too early still


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Hardcoreweather]

CODE RED

Z20 KNHC 271129
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 27 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH

[srainhoutx]

Looks like Agatha may be on the way...

[Hardcoreweather]

Latest model runs

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

Appears we may be getting close to a TD in the EPAC. The NHC has raised the chance of development to High prob of 70% and the 18Z Best Track is suggesting a 30kt TD of 1005mb. We shall see.

[srainhoutx]

We may be getting 'close' to a Depression in the EPAC tonight...



ABPZ20 KNHC 282333
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI MAY 28 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE MORE THAN A
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAINS ORGANIZED...
THERE ARE NO EVIDENCES OF A WELL DEFINED CENTER AT THIS TIME.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY SQUALLS ARE ALREADY
APPROACHING THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA AND THE AREA
OF HEAVY RAINS EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS EL SALVADOR. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[Paul]

the CMC dooms every major city every year...so does the mighty GFS...take it for whats its worth...nada that far out...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

I will say last nights GFS showed a weak tropical storm in the GOM at 300hr right over the oil spill....that was cool...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 291246
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA HAS DEVELOPED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE
FIRST OF THE 2010 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A 29/0323Z ASCAT
OVERPASS...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/05 KT. THE CENTER HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH ACTIVE AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL BANDING
FEATURES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-LATITUDE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD COURSE...
BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA
BORDER IN 36 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER AND IS IN FACT
ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT THE MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN...DUE TO THE UNLIKELY SHARP
EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST BY THE HWRF MODEL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 35-KT WIND VECTORS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THIS CYCLONE MAY
ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION
IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 30C
SSTS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR. THE PROXIMITY TO MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN MAY INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...BUT THIS TREND WILL BE MORE CLOSELY
ASSESSED LATER TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SATELLITE INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND AS
FAR INLAND AS HONDURAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1200Z 12.9N 93.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 13.0N 93.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 13.3N 92.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 13.7N 91.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 14.4N 91.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0600Z 14.9N 91.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

WTPZ31 KNHC 291431
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 93.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM...WSW OF PUERTO DE SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM...W OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST. AGATHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN