Monday, May 24th! Nebraska!

[sambucol]

Hail storm OKC last week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFv2W7Duqiw&NR=1

[spadilly]

yeah..unreal - here's some video of the hailstorm in OKC:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFv2W7Du ... r_embedded

i must say, i have been impressed with the weather channel covering vortex 2 this year. looking forward to quite a day tomorrow when i get home from work.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER A LARGE PART OF OK AND N TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SW KS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SIGNIFICANT SVR TSTM OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR A LARGE PART OF OK AND ADJACENT N TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
NE CO UPR LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E INTO CNTRL KS BY 12Z THU AS
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING SSW INTO NM SWEEPS E INTO
CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX. BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC WSW FLOW ON
S SIDE OF LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLNS...ATOP MODERATE SSWLY
LLJ. MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SE FROM TX PANHANDLE SFC
LOW SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH MOVEMENT OFFSET
BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. S OF THE FRONT AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
OVER THE ERN PANHANDLE...LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NWD WITH LLJ.

...SRN PLNS/ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY WED...
OVERNIGHT OK MCS SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS CONTINUES GENERALLY ESE
INTO NW AR EARLY THIS AFTN. ELEVATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL...LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ATOP W/E
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS.

BY MID TO LATE AFTN...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW...AND LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH NM UPR TROUGH
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW SFC-BASED STORMS NEAR INTERSECTION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH EWD-MOVING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER WRN OK. A
BIT LATER...SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXTEND SWD ON THE TROUGH/DRY
LINE INTO NW TX...AND EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK.

THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR AND SBCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. THE SETUP APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING INTENSE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL. GIVEN SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR FRONT...A
COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR.

WITH THE LLJ LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES
AND THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF NM TROUGH...EXPECT THE OK/N TX
STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS EARLY TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT HI LVL FLOW...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ESE
INTO AR BY EARLY WED...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND/HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

...ARKLATEX TO CNTRL GULF CST THIS AFTN...
SFC HEATING ALONG/S AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM
SRN PLNS LOW MAY SUPPORT SCTD DIURNAL STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX SE TO
THE CNTRL GULF CST TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
HEATING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BECOMING LOCALLY SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME WEAK CIN OVER REGION. AMPLE INSTABILITY/ PW WILL BE
PRESENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/ PERSISTENCE.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 05/19/2010

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...OK AND EXTREME NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191822Z - 192015Z

MID-LVL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS WAS BEGINNING
TO MIGRATE INTO ERN OK AND ACCELERATED COOLING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 18Z VSBL SATL ALREADY SHOWS
EVIDENCE OF TCU INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT OVER ERN HEMPHILL/WHEELER
COUNTIES IN THE TX PNHDL AND MAY MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE
MID-LATE AFTN/EVENING DOWNSTREAM.

18Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VERY NEAR I-40 WITH A
WRMFNT EXTENDING ESE FROM THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NORMAN TO SERN OK.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SEEMINGLY HAS EVOLVED AND WAS LOCATED A COUPLE
ROWS OF COUNTIES W OF I-44...WELL-AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. TO THE W OF
THIS FEATURE...CU FIELD WAS INCREASING AND STRATUS WAS ERODING TO
THE N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT EL RENO WWD TO THE STATE
LINE.

AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN THIS AFTN...EXPECT THAT THE SFC-H85
FLOW WILL BACK SOMEWHAT AND MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION IN THE 19-21Z TIME
FRAME...PERHAPS EVOLVING FROM CURRENT BUILD-UPS ENTERING WCNTRL OK.
OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW OR EVEN PERHAPS
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM OKC METRO WWD ALONG/JUST N OF I-40 AFTER
21Z. MATURE STORMS WILL TRACK ROUGHLY 250/30 KTS.

INGREDIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TORNADOES FROM N OF KCSM ESE THROUGH KOKC METRO IN THE 21Z-02Z AND
POSSIBLY FARTHER ESE INTO ECNTRL OK BY MID-EVENING. HERE...0-1KM
SRH WILL GENERALLY BE 250-300 M2/S2 AMIDST LOW LCL/S AND A HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR DISCRETE STORMS. OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

..RACY.. 05/19/2010

[wxdata]

PDS Tornado Watch going up from west central OK into SE OK.

[wxdata]

OKC discussion:

SATELLITE HAS SHOWN TOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA-TEXAS
PANHANDLE STATE LINE WITH LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING NEAR THE
ANTELOPE HILLS. EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE SOON WITH DEVELOPMENT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BACKED WINDS AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A ENHANCED TORNADO RISK.

[wxdata]

VORTEX released a balloon at 1:30pm from Clinton OK.

[wxdata]

OKC NWS:

Important mesoscale information -- FIRST ECHOES BEING OBSERVED WITH TOWERING CUMULUS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST OF ELK CITY. THESE ECHOES WERE JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW AND ALONG SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT NEAR CHEYENNE...WEATHERFORD...MOORE...ADA LINE. HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN WESTCENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND TRACK THEM EAST ALONG FRONT. FORECAST UPDRAFT HELICITIES AND REFLECTIVITIES POINT TOWARD DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS CONVECTIVE MODE. EXPECTED CELL MOTIONS WILL BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT INTO OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA/I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM THIS EVENING. VEERED FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS MAY KEEP TORNADOGENESIS ON HOLD UNTIL THEY REACH AN AXIS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 81. EXCEPTION COULD OCCUR IF STORM IS VERY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF FRONT WHERE SHEAR WILL MAXIMIZE.

[wxdata]

Mid-afternoon update from SPC

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... _2000.html

[srainhoutx]

And we're off...going to be an interesting night...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
312 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEEDEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CAMARGO AND LEEDEY.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 326 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTH OF
OKEENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LACEY.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190...

VALID 192020Z - 192145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 190 CONTINUES.

20Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW JUST S OF KGAG WITH A WRMFNT ESE
ACROSS DEWEY...BLAINE...KINGFISHER...OKLAHOMA COUNTIES...THEN SEWD
TO CHOCTAW COUNTY. A DRYLINE EXTENDED S FROM THE LOW INTO THE ALTUS
AREA.

TSTMS WERE INCREASING OVER WCNTRL OK NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WILL
LIKELY BUILD SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH LATE AFTN. OTHER STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO GROW ALONG THE WRMFNT FROM JUST W OF KOKC WNW INTO
BLAINE/MAJOR COUNTIES. YET A THIRD REGION OF INITIATION...PER
LATEST RAPID REFRESH AND RECENT TCU DEVELOPMENT...WILL BE ACROSS
SERN OK TO THE SW THROUGH NW OF KMLC ALONG A POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE.

AS STORMS MATURE INTO SUPERCELLS THEY WILL MOVE 250/30 KTS WITH THE
TORNADO THREAT MAXIMIZED INVOF THE WRMFNT...PARTICULARLY FROM
KINGFISHER ESE THROUGH OKC METRO AND INTO SE OK NEAR KMLC. THIS
ZONE WILL MAINTAIN ESELY LLVL FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO SW ABOVE 2-3
KM AMIDST LOW LCLS. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

..RACY.. 05/19/2010


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

[srainhoutx]

We know where V2 is today...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

OKC043-129-192115-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-100519T2115Z/
ROGER MILLS OK-DEWEY OK-
330 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN DEWEY AND NORTHEASTERN ROGER MILLS COUNTIES...

AT 330 PM CDT...RADAR AND RESEARCH METEOROLOGISTS ARE OBSERVING A
TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMARGO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CAMARGO AND CESTOS.

[wxdata]

3D scan of the tornado near Hennessey OK. (the red 'snake' part of the graphic is the tornado...)

[srainhoutx]

Seeing development near Lawton. That may be an OKC problem a bit later.

[srainhoutx]

[weatherguy425]

I would expect possible rapid intensifiction of the storm N of Lawton as it moves in to a more favorable airmass.

[spadilly]

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
522 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 520 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF LOYAL...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WILL MOVE TOWARD LOYAL
AND DOVER. IN ADDITION... HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS ARE LIKELY.
THIS IS A DIFFERENT STORM THAT THE STORM THAT HAS PRODUCED THE
TORNADO NEAR HENNESSEY AND MARSHALL.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CASHION...DOVER...HENNESSEY...
KINGFISHER...LACEY...LOYAL AND OMEGA.

[srainhoutx]

I wonder if final exams are over at OSU. ~20 minutes to Stillwater on the lead cell.

Looks like a 'classic' tornado. Damage reported in Dover, OK.