January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth the 12Z Euro Ensembles Mean are a bit colder across the Plains and suggest some spread still remains with the individual members. I do agree that this cold snap is not record breaking cold, but certainly does appear colder than temps we saw last winter which was very mild for much of North America.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

TXZ093>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-144>148-156>162-174-175-151000-
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-TARRANT-
DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-
BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-
MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
303 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...

A STRONG WINTERTIME STORM SYSTEM REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
US THIS EVENING AND IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THIS TIME.

MOISTURE IS LIMITED HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET WOULD BE MINIMAL...HOWEVER
IF THE PRECIPITATION IS FREEZING RAIN...EVEN LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS...
PARTICULARLY ALONG INTERSTATE 45 FROM CORSICANA TO CENTERVILLE.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO WACO TO CANTON LINE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION IN
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. EVEN THE
SLIGHTEST LAYER OF ICE ON ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES CAN LEAD
TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in New Mexico, light snow continues to fall from S of ABQ on N to the Taos Area and on E in the Eastern Plains of that State:

[Portastorm]

Reasonable afternoon forecast discussion out of EWX. Seems like they have a good grasp on things based on what we have seen via the models and through our discussion here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF THIS WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES SLOWLY MOVES EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH... WEAK
SHORT-WAVES ROTATE ACROSS TEXAS INDUCING PERIODS OF MAINLY WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES INDICATE THAT A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...NO SLEET OR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUNDS AND LIGHT
INTENSITY. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...SNOW FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING AT
THAT TIME AND WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A WARMUP ENSUES AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. NEXT MONDAY...ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW...EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-112-125-126-
136>138-149>153-165>167-150600-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0002.130115T0900Z-130115T1800Z/
HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-
WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-
JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-
LA SALLE-BOWIE-CASS-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-
RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOPE...PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...
LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...
MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...
BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...
WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...JENA...ATLANTA...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...
CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...
HEMPHILL
400 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY.

* EVENT...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION...WHERE NEAR FREEZING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE.


* TIMING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO FALL BEFORE DAYBREAK
WILL BEGIN TO FALL MAINLY AS SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOME AREAS. BY NOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...ALLOWING CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN.

* IMPACT...RAIN COULD BECOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
MIXED WITH SLEET. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
EXCESSIVE...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ELEVATED OBJECTS
SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD BECOME SLICK.

[srainhoutx]

HGX afternoon update shows well just how difficult the forecast is and exactly what may or may not happen...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK...OR UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH (OR
CLOSED LOW) AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND...IF SO...IN WHAT FORM?
RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST AN OVERNIGHT INTO LATE TUESDAY
(WEDNESDAY?) MORNING PERIOD OF PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THAT
MAY EVOLVE INTO A FREEZING DRIZZLE/-RA SITUATION FROM SHORTLY PAST
MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROFILES
DEPICT A NEAR 950-650 MB SATURATED ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER ABOVE A
SHALLOW SUB 950 MB BELOW-FREEZING LAYER. THIS WOULD INDICATE A
FREEZING LIGHT RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SITUATION...ESPECIALLY
OVER ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND OVERPASSES. ANOTHER...MORE SECONDARY
ISSUE...WILL BE LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET. ALTHOUGH NOT OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES...THE ABOVE-FREEZING PROFILE IS FORECAST
TO BE DEEP ENOUGH WITH ANY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD (ICE CRYSTAL) SEEDING
EXPECTED TO MELT.

THE THREAT FOR -FZDZ OR -FZRA WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG AND
NORTH OF A BELLVILLE TO WILLIS TO CORRIGAN LINE. TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WOULD BE DURING THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING
HOURS...OF FROM ROUGHLY 4 AM THROUGH 1O AM CST. ONE LARGE QUESTION
IS WHETHER WILL WE EXPERIENCE THIS THREAT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
THE CURRENT MID- UPPER FRONT PARALLELING THE COASTLINE SWINGS
OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEAST-LIFTING UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
DRIER AIR MAY BEAT THIS EXIT...THUS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING THE
THREAT OF ANY PRECIP AT ALL WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ELEMENT TO
CONSIDER WOULD ANY UPSTREAM WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-UPPER FLOW COMING ACROSS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO AID IN INITIATING MORE OF A CONVECTIVE (VERSUS
-RA) SCENARIO. AS USUAL...IT IS ALL ABOUT THE TIMING OF ALL THESE
ELEMENTS LINING UP...WITH JUST THE `RIGHT` THERMO PROFILE (-RA/-SN
MIX VERSUS -IP VERSUS -FZRA/-FZDR) THROUGH THE LOWER 15K FT...IN
ALLOWING ANY OF THIS TO COME TO FRUITION.

ONCE THE 5H TROUGH/LOW FINALLY EJECTS OFF INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
FRIDAY...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL COMMENCE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW WITH A LIGHT VARIABLE TO WEAK EAST
BREEZE TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TO PARTLY CLOUDY
BEGINNING THURSDAY....LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO
SEASONABLE VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOONS WILL BE BACK IN THE
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF ANY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP
THE REGIONAL AIR MASS RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEST
FELT IN THE MORNING AS MANY INTERIOR READINGS WILL STILL DIP BELOW
40F. ALL AND ALL...AFTER THESE FEW DAYS OF WINTER...THE LATE PERIOD
WILL BE DRY (PRECIP-WISE)...LESS BREEZY...AND WARMER UNDER CLEARER
SKIES.

[Portastorm]

0z NAM sure is looking aggressive with more moisture for east central and northeast Texas. If it's right, could be some accumulation of a wintry mix in those areas overnight. Something to watch for.

[srainhoutx]

Light drizzle and rain has developed across E Central TX this morning but surface temps are above freezing and only a few isolated spots in the Hill Country on NE to the Waco area may have a chance of seeing some light freezing drizzle or very light sleet. Travel issues appear to not be a problem. Winter Weather Advisories are in affect for NE Texas N of Lufkin with Ice Storm Warnings for portions of Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana.

Later this evening into the overnight hour of early Wednesday would be the best chance of seeing any freezing precip mainly N of HWY 105 in Montgomery County as some colder surface temps filter S as the positive tilt trough begins to move E from W Texas. Early morning water vapor imagery is showing increased moisture over Northern Mexico with a stronger short wave that may arrive as the colder air moves in tonight. We'll see what the trends today bring regarding that potential. NWS San Antonio/Austin as well as Houston/Galveston continue to keep a chance of light freezing drizzle and even some light sleet potential in the forecast, but uncertainty remains the theme this morning.

It does appear that we'll finally see an end to the moisture chances as the trough finally moves E into the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley and hopefully some peaks of the sun for the weekend.

As for the next cold front. Depending on which model is more correct, either a glancing blow of modified Canadian air via the GFS or a stronger surge via the Euro will arrive late Monday into Tuesday.

[srainhoutx]

Update:
Wintry precip has developed rapidly across the Dallas/Ft Worth area and Winter Weather Advisories have been extended further W in N Central Texas. Also of note is College Station is reporting light freezing rain this hour. Ground temps are borderline, so travel issues there do not appear to be a problem at this time. For the Dallas area, travel impacts do appear to be an issue and light accumulations of freezing rain/sleet and light snow may affect that region throughout the morning hours. NWS FWD is concerned that the positive tilted trough may attempt to close off an upper low and may even become negative tilted even though none of the guidance suggests this happening. We will need to monitor trends today for such a scenario in case the models are in fact clueless and have under estimated the strength of the approaching short wave currently over NE Mexico as. Water Vapor Imagery is suggesting.

[srainhoutx]

Update #2:
Thunder sleet and thunder snow now reported in the Dallas Area and on S to Waco. There are some indications that the much talked about closed cold core low may in fact develop and even become negative tilted over Central Texas later today. The upper air disturbance is currently over NE Mexico or W of the Big Bend. Temps here in NW Harris County have dropped to 36 degrees with rain. NWS HGX is suggesting a potential of some light sleet and possible light snow in their updated aviation forecast for College Station and Huntsville. We will see what the morning brings in this quickly changing winter weather situation across our Region.

[srainhoutx]

Rain and sleet mix here in NW Harris County. Reports from College Station indicated mixed freezing precip with some light snow as well.

[srainhoutx]

Thunder sleet with thunder snow now reported in Dallas on S to Waco.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE TX...NRN LA...SRN AR AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE MS DELTA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 151232Z - 151630Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
RATES OF .1 TO .3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH NOW TURNING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATING UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THROUGH THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME.
COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUING RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ABOVE A COLD/STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH OF A STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
LIKELY AS MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE YIELDS WEAK
CAPE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THAT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
LIGHTNING /WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/. THOUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN BELOW 700
MB WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AT LEAST A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS AFFECTED BY
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...TO THE NORTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM LONGVIEW
TX THROUGH SHREVEPORT AND MONROE LA...INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA...THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY. SIGNIFICANT ICING IS
POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ON VEGETATION...POWER LINES AND ELEVATED ROAD
SURFACES...AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM.

..KERR.. 01/15/2013


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
820 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013

TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-151630-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA
820 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013


...RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING MAY BE MIXED WITH SLEET FOR
AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO NEW WAVERLY TO TRINITY LINE. THE RAIN
AND SLEET MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM. TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO FREEZE
ON ROADS BUT ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
COULD BRIEFLY FREEZE EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY SLEET SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CAUTION IS ADVISED
ON AREA ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES DUE TO WET AND POTENTIALLY
ICY CONDITIONS.

[C2G]

Beaumont's showing light snow mist.
Sure wish NWSH would get that new radar up and running.

[wxman57]

Beaumont's showing light snow mist.
Sure wish NWSH would get that new radar up and running.

The airport is reporting light rain and fog, not snow. RUC sounding currently for Beaumont indicates quite warm air JUST above the ground - well into the 50s. No snow there.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle had developed over the northern counties of SE TX this morning. Temperatures at 500am were in the mid 30’s and have cooled to 32 at both Huntsville and Crockett. Wind devices at both sites have gone calm even though a decent N wind is blowing suggesting ice as formed and encased the anemometer. Profiles across the area continue to support mainly freezing rain and freezing drizzle north of a College Station to Huntsville to Trinity line where surface temperatures are at or below freezing. Ob sites have also been reporting a little bit of sleet in this area, but most of this is likely very short lived.

Should see surface temperatures rise above freezing by noon over those northern impacted areas with any ice melting. Main question then becomes tonight into Wednesday morning. Upper level storm system will be moving across TX tonight, but moisture throughout the air column will be decreasing as the stronger lift arrives. Surface temperatures are expected to run a few degrees cooler Wednesday morning than this morning suggesting at least the northern 1/3rd of the area (north of HWY 105) will be at or below freezing. Could see the light drizzle and light rain continue into the evening hours and then mainly end prior to the onset of any sub freezing temperatures over our northern counties. Profiles show the cold pocket of air aloft associated with the upper level system moving across the area early Wednesday into Wednesday and this will cool the entire air column (especially above the surface). Moisture looks extremely limited by this point and do not expect precipitation much beyond midnight tonight. Ingredients are not in phase to produce a winter weather event across SE TX tonight into early Wednesday….unless more moisture can be found and brought into the region Wednesday morning.

Extended:
Clearing skies and much warmer weather for the end of the week into the weekend with highs reaching into the 60’s and lows in the 40’s.

[wxman57]

I plotted a meteogram from the 12Z GFS for Houston. Nothing extreme next week. Colder this week, in fact. No precip indicated after today. Southerly winds return by next Thursday, bringing lots of low clouds, fog and light drizzle. Temps should climb up into the 60s, however.

[srainhoutx]

I plotted a meteogram from the 12Z GFS for Houston. Nothing extreme next week. Colder this week, in fact. No precip indicated after today. Southerly winds return by next Thursday, bringing lots of low clouds, fog and light drizzle. Temps should climb up into the 60s, however.

I trust the Operational GFS about as far as I could throw it in this pattern. The GEFS and NAEFS as well as the CFSv2 data still suggest very chilly weather to the end of January. In fact the GGEM and Euro ensembles are still rather chilly next week. That said I'm sick of this cold, damp and dreay weather. At least in Taos it was cold and sunny while I was there.

[wxman57]

Yes, I know you cannot always trust the models out beyond 3-5 days. However, there is a significant trend toward less cold air next week by all of the models. Even the Euro only has a light freeze for Houston next Wednesday, followed by a rapid warm-up.