February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month

[ticka1]

looks like my winter is going to return!! bring even if it is march!!

[Portastorm]

[quote="Cloud2ground"]How lovely, I mean that just brightens my day to know Old Man Winter will keep his cold grip on us a while longer.
Personally, I was very hopeful/optimistic that winter would abate and let the warmth in.
I'm not overly worried, because my heat will surely win, eventually.
Yes Ed let's hope Saint Patrick ushers in Spring.......and some Funderstorms.[/quote]

Your time is coming soon, Cloud2ground ... coming soon. This should be winter's last hurrah in a "winter" which really hasn't had much to hooray about, if you like cold. But judging from the model trends and srainhoutx's excellent analyses, I would say this could be quite a period ahead.

But count me in on the Funderstorm bandwagon. I would relish a stormy spring for south central and southeast Texas. We used to have those once in a while, didn't we?!

[redneckweather]

Even though winter my grasp us one more time and some cool downs here and there, the signs of Spring are everywhere up here in central Montgomery County. The weeds are growing nice and thick, jasmine is blooming everywhere in the pine trees and youpan around my house, indian paint brushes are starting to pop up (and blooming) along 2854, the oak trees are budding around my house and my apple tree is blooming.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is a bit further S than the 06Z run. Looks like snow for weatherguy425 in Lubbock as well.

Also the NCEP has issued a Critical Weather Day event for the Southern and Central Regional HQ.

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
A REGIONAL CWD INCLUDING NWS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL REGIONS... NCEP...
NWSTG... AND NCF CONTINUES UNTIL 18Z WED FEB 27 2013.

[weatherguy425]

The 12Z GFS is a bit further S than the 06Z run. Looks like snow for weatherguy425 in Lubbock as well.

Also the NCEP has issued a Critical Weather Day event for the Southern and Central Regional HQ.

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
A REGIONAL CWD INCLUDING NWS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL REGIONS... NCEP...
NWSTG... AND NCF CONTINUES UNTIL 18Z WED FEB 27 2013.

02232013 12Z GFS f48.gif

02232013 12Z GFS f54.gif

02232013 12Z GFS f60.gif

Starting to look like it. Though, I don't want to get my hopes too high. Prior events hve blanketed Plainview-North, with Lubbock only getting flurries. Though, if this system comes in ANY firther south, Lubbock could be in the sweet spot for a developing N-S oriented deformation band on the back side of the rapidly deepening low. Big story will also be the winds. 40-45 mph gusts will wreak havoc with the very 'dry' snowfalls we tend to get out in west Texas.

[Portastorm]

weatherguy, with a slightly further south track of that low ... Lubbock will be in the mix for a nasty winter event! For your sake and my son's, I'm hoping that happens. I see that Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for the entire Panhandle.

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy, with a slightly further south track of that low ... Lubbock will be in the mix for a nasty winter event! For your sake and my son's, I'm hoping that happens. I see that Winter Storm Watches have been hoisted for the entire Panhandle.

You're 100% correct. BUT, even though this is a storm of a different animal nd it's a stretch to compare... the past few systems hve dumped snow (some 5+ ACCUM) across our nrothern tier of counties (where current Watch is in plce) and Lubbock got squat. while a deformation band can create happiness. If you're on it's southern edge (like we have been) then you have do deal with suppression. Nonetheless, it will be interestign to watch unfold.

[srainhoutx]

A very potent Winter Storm is wrapping up current over Arizona where 500mb temps are -35 degrees which is very cold and much stronger that the last upper low that ejected from the Desert SW that brought 2 ft of snow across locations in the Central Plains earlier this week. At this hour near Coastal Texas and Louisiana, a surface boundary is slowly retreating N as a warm from and dew point near 60+ will begin to move inland. It appears that the great threat for severe weather will be limited to areas E of the I-45 Corridor and especially across Louisiana. There remains some uncertainty as to just how far N the warm front will advance across SE Texas, but as Lee side cyclogenesis develops this afternoon across SE Colorado and NE New Mexico wind should respond and turn SE off the Gulf and increase. Streamer showers with isolated storms are possible tonight for Eastern Texas. Across Southern Louisiana into Mississippi, it is possible that severe weather chances will be greater with a stronger return of Gulf moisture and less capping allowing for development of rotating super cells and the possibility of tornadoes with heavy flooding rains across the Central an Eastern Gulf Coast States. Further W across the Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country, strong storms are possible as pressures fall very rapidly in advance of the approaching 500mb upper low and surface low. One limiting factor that precludes this event bringing wide spread damaging storms is the lack of moisture return, but this storm system will have much stronger dynamics than we have seen of late, so that will need to be monitored.

In the cold sector, a Major Winter Storm with bring societal impact to a large portion of the Central/Southern Rockies into the Central/Southern Plains into the Mid West. Blizzard Warnings have been hoisted for a large area with Winter Storm conditions expected for more that 1000 miles across the mid section of the Continental US. The storm track will be a bit further S that previous storms have traveled. It is possible that the eventual track may need to be shift a bit further S. That will be determined later today into the overnight hours as the storm fully develops.

That major headline other than the heavy snow and blizzard conditions expected across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle on N and E will be the strong gusty winds and very low dew point and humidity will bring extremely dry conditions that are worrisome for the rapid spread of wild fire and Red Flag Warning have been hoisted in advance of that dangerous conditions.

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 24 2013 - 12Z TUE FEB 26 2013

...ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG SECTIONS OF GULF COAST...

...A COASTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SUNDAY...


A PATTERN NEARLY REMINISCENT OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHICH FEATURED
HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL IMPACT A SIMILAR AREA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CULPRIT IS A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES
EASTWARD FROM WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX ON MON...IT SHOULD
FURTHER STRENGTHEN ALOFT AIDING IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW. THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ROCKIES WHERE VIGOROUS VERTICAL LIFT UNDER THE
UPPER CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.
EVENTUALLY THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND AS
THE SYSTEM FEEDS OFF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DURING THIS INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...LOCALIZED BANDING OF HEAVY
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE. THE HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK IS ADVERTISING AN EXPANSIVE
STRIPE OF 1 FOOT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. WITHIN THIS
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...WILL BE A POCKET
OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 18 INCHES AND HIGHER. THIS WILL
EASILY LEAD TO A HEFTY SNOW PACK GIVEN MUCH OF THE SNOW FROM THE
PREVIOUS EVENT HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY MELTED. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR SNOW...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WHICH
WILL FEATURE A POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
NORTHEASTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINS. THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LOCALLY SEVERE ON SUNDAY. AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD...A WARM FRONT
WILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN FURTHER
INCREASES IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT. THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GIVEN THE UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE AIR MASS...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM EAST TEXAS ALL THE
WAY TO COASTAL GEORGIA. FURTHER...LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR UNDERNEATH TRAINING/BACKBUILDING STORMS.

LOOKING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION...A COASTAL SYSTEM TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM LONG ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH FROM
NEW ENGLAND TO RESTRICT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COASTAL
SECTIONS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE MAINE COAST. BACK TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BARRELING TOWARD THE REGION WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE FOLLOWING
DAY. SURFACE ONSHORE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY
ADVECT PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS SHOULD
DOMINATE ALONG THE CASCADES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE BITTERROOTS.
THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A
SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.


RUBIN-OSTER

[srainhoutx]

The HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion still suggesting the NAM is clueless...

...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...
...CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

THE NAM INITIALIZED SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TOO HIGH BY 4 TO 8
HPA...INDICATING POOR INITIALIZATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY THE NAM. THE NAM FORECAST TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW DOES
NOT DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY FROM CONSENSUS...HOWEVER THE NAM SEEMS TO
CONTINUE TO BE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NAM ALSO
APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS.

SPREAD INCREASES WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
FARTHER NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is a bit further S with the storm track suggesting Winter Storm Warnings may need to be extended into the Lubbock area. That model is suggesting the potential for heavier snow totals from the trowal developing further S across the Panhandle.

[Portastorm]

Looks like weatherguy425 very well may be the big winner in this one. Increasingly possible that LBB sees blizzard or near blizzard conditions along with the entire Panhandle to their immediate north. Meanwhile, I'm hoping we in south central Texas can at least squeeze out some measurable rainfall from the system. The only weather warnings we ever get these days are Red Flag Warnings ... which, yes, are in effect for tomorrow.

[weatherguy425]

Looks like weatherguy425 very well may be the big winner in this one. Increasingly possible that LBB sees blizzard or near blizzard conditions along with the entire Panhandle to their immediate north. Meanwhile, I'm hoping we in south central Texas can at least squeeze out some measurable rainfall from the system. The only weather warnings we ever get these days are Red Flag Warnings ... which, yes, are in effect for tomorrow.

Becoming more confident as well. Doesn't take much accumulation to cause ground blizzard conditions with 60 mph winds. Wind chills near 0 will be an issue as well. What could help metigte accumulations initially is the high of near 70 that we're expierencing before the front moves in this evening! I do weather for Texas Tech radio and a local station....I'll be VERY busy beginning tonight.


Side note- Lubbock NWS is considering expansion of both WWW and BW further south.

[Portastorm]

weatherguy425, as I was telling srainhoutx offline, my son is a freshman at Tech and grew up in Austin. I told him that he's probably going to see a snowstorm the likes of something he has never experienced in south central Texas! He's also taking an atmospheric science course this semester, so I told him this would be a great system to study.

Good luck on your forecasts and most of us winter weather lovers will be living vicariously through you the next few days!

[weatherguy425]

Yeah, it'll be interesting. Maybe even some convection just off to the east of Lubbock this evening ahead of the dryline!

[srainhoutx]

For the warm sector and what will assit the deepening Winter Storm with the potential of thunder snow in the cold sector, the SPC Day 1 Outlook Update: (Note: The dynamics for this developing Storm have not been seen in a long time across the Southern Plains)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL
TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOW AMPLIFYING SSEWD ACROSS
ERN AZ SHOULD TURN MORE ESEWD AS IT CROSSES NM LATER
TODAY/TNGT...WITH CONTINUED DEEPENING EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM REACHES
W CNTRL TX AS EARLY MON. THIS WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING OF EXISTING
LEE CYCLONE OVER THE SRN HI PLNS TODAY...E AND SEWD INTO CNTRL TX
EARLY MON. BROAD AREA OF ATTENDANT WAA EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO/LWR MS VLY SHOULD SUPPORT EVENTUAL NWD
MOVEMENT OF SFC FRONT NOW STALLED WSW-ENE ACROSS THE NRN GULF. NWD
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE STYMIED BY
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN/TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

...SRN PLNS LT TNGT/EARLY MON...
INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NM UPR TROUGH...NOW MOVING
ESE ACROSS NRN/WRN NM...WILL SWEEP E INTO W TX THIS EVE AND OVERTAKE
EXISTING LEE TROUGH. THE COMBINED BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS
W TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE TNGT...WITH THE FEATURE EXTENDING FROM A
LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS SSE THROUGH CNTRL TX TO NEAR LAREDO BY 12Z
MON. AT THE SAME TIME...WRN END OF BOUNDARY NOW STALLED IN THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE OVER E CNTRL AND E
TX TODAY/TNGT AS WAA STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPR TROUGH.

COMBINATION OF STRONG /90-120 M/ HEIGHT FALLS ON LEADING EDGE OF NM
VORT WITH EXISTING PLUME OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
WDLY SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT LATE
THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE FROM FAR WRN OK SWD THROUGH W TX...DESPITE
SPARSE MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS 35-40 F/. STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND
STRONG COOLING ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SQLN A
BIT LATER TNGT THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT
GREATER THOUGH STILL MODEST MOISTURE RETURN /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S TO LWR 50S/ SPREADING NWD THROUGH CNTRL/E CNTRL TX. WITH AMPLE
/50+ KT/ DEEP SHEAR PRESENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUPERCELLS...SVR
HAIL AND DMGG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE TIME OF DAY.

SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO
PERHAPS WDLY SCTD STORMS WELL E AND SE OF THE SQLN /TOWARD THE
MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CST/ VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERSPREADS WRN EDGE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN IN
THAT AREA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SUCH POTENTIAL REMAINS QUITE
CONDITIONAL GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND EML CAPPING.

...CNTRL GULF CST TNGT/EARLY MON...
TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH ALONG AND N OF
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TNGT/EARLY MON IN RESPONSE TO APPRECIABLE
STRENGTHENING/BROADENING OF WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOWNSTREAM FROM
AMPLIFYING NM/TX TROUGH.

GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE S OF BOUNDARY PER CURRENT SFC AND
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA /PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 F/...COVERAGE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO RETARD NWD/INLAND
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION.

NEITHER SATELLITE NOR MODEL FCSTS INDICATE PRESENCE OF ANY
IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO FOCUS/ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHELESS...STRENGTH OF WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW COUPLED WITH 40+ KT
WSWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
WIND FROM SRN LA EWD THROUGH SRN MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND
SW GA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING DISTANCE FROM THE
COAST. THIS FACTOR SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE/EXTENT OF SVR THREAT. IN ANY
AREAS WHERE MARITIME BOUNDARY DOES MOVE ASHORE...HOWEVER...A
CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES GIVEN 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 250-400 M2/S2 SRH...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF FCST PERIOD.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 02/24/2013

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors across Southern Louisiana/Mississippi and Alabama:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST AND ERN GULF COAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND
MOVE EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER AT THE TX-OK STATE-LINE. AT
DAYBREAK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE SFC
LOW SWD ACROSS NORTH TX INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY ALONG WHICH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS SHOULD EXIST IN NORTH TX AND SRN OK ALONG A TONGUE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS EAST TX DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING
FROM LA EWD ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL. SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. BY 06Z ON TUESDAY...MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST A WELL-DEVELOPED LINEAR MCS WILL BE LOCATED FROM
THE TN VALLEY EXTENDING SWD ACROSS AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF LA AND
SRN MS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND SFC HEATING. SBCAPE
VALUES COULD REACH 1500 J/KG FROM SOUTH OF JACKSON MS TO THE NEW
ORLEANS VICINITY. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE INTO THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AS THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F/ SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS. THE
DOMINANT STORM MODE COULD DETERMINE THE TYPE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT. A PURELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WOULD FAVOR WIND
DAMAGE AS THE GREATEST THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
IF MORE CELLS DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AND REMAIN DISCRETE...THEN THE TORNADO THREAT COULD BE GREATER. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS SE LA...SRN MS AND FAR SRN AL WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR PEAK HEATING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

..BROYLES.. 02/24/2013

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the 16Z RAP (Rapid Refresh Meso Model), it does appear the low track may be a tad further S across New Mexico and the Panhandle. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z surface analysis suggest a wave of low pressure is developing SSE of Brownsville. Also the Euro is suggesting a track very close to Lubbock as well.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013

.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND IMPACTS. WILL REEVALUATE PRODUCT ALIGNMENT AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED A LITTLE FURTHER THAN
WHAT 12Z MODELS HAD INDICATED. WILL THUS LIKELY EXPAND BLIZZARD
WARNING AND INCLUDE YOAKUM TO STONEWALL COUNTIES IN A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

[srainhoutx]

The 19Z RAP has now picked up on the developing Coastal low SSE of Brownsville. The storm track continues to suggest the 500mb upper low and surface low will pass near or just S of Lubbock while the Coastal low moves NE along the advancing pre frontal trough early tomorrow morning.