February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month

[wxman57]

Yes, I saw it. Here's the 12Z Euro's 24hr snow accumulations map. Interesting map. Hopefully (for me) this will be winter's last gasp and we can move on to 80+ degree weather after next weekend...

[srainhoutx]

There is still a lot of spread in the 12Z euro ensemble mean with some individual members even further S than the operational regarding late next week. It’s way too early to get excited, but as wxman57 stated it is interesting to see the trends to a much colder pattern. Stormy late Saturday into Sunday ahead and still some chances of wintry mischief across the Panhandle and the Red River Valley on Tuesday before we can focus too much attention on the longer range.

NWS Shreveport:

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUNDAYS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION BUT THAT DOES NOT
MEAN WE ARE DONE WITH THE WET WEATHER. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ITSELF MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY
MONDAY AND INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH DISTURBANCES HEADED OUR WAY WILL
PRECEDE THIS TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
OVERSPREADING OUR REGION ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A HEAVY RAIN PERIOD FOR OUR REGION BUT THE RAIN
WILL BE FALLING OVER FAIRLY SATURATED GROUND FROM THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VERY STRONG CAA FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH
STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE 700-300MB LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR A CHANGE OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHERN REGIONS AND
HAVE THUS MADE MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST.

WE FINALLY DRY OUT IN THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME BEFORE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS BY
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE SOME OF THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON FOR OUR REGION SO IT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

The attachment 02082013 12Z Euro Ensembles Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_192.gif is no longer available

The attachment 02082013 12Z Euro Ensembles Temperature32at32850hPa_North32America_192.gif is no longer available

[Ptarmigan]

Yes, I saw it. Here's the 12Z Euro's 24hr snow accumulations map. Interesting map. Hopefully (for me) this will be winter's last gasp and we can move on to 80+ degree weather after next weekend...

Let's hope the snow accumulations move further south.

[Cromagnum]

I see where the NWS is saying that there is the possibility of strong capping going on for this Sat/Sun event. Possibility of very little rain with even less thunder?

[C2G]

NWS H/G certainly hasn't jumped on any snow bandwagon. In fact next weekend they show a high near 70 on Sunday, which would be just fine for my Birthday.

[Paul Robison]

Yes, Cromagnum. Here is the latests NWS AFD:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 090331
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.UPDATE...
POST-FRONTAL VEERING WINDS ARE NOW EASTERLY...ONSHORE BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE UPON SATURDAY`S
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLIES AS WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES LOWER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...
WILL TRAVEL ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FROM SLIGHT TOMORROW TO LIKELY
ON SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFDS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS THERE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY...THIS WEEKEND`S DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THE REGIONAL WARM NOSE/CAP.
WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MODELED TO REMAIN OFF ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS (ARKLATEX)...THE OVERALL STATE OF THIS CAP WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE SUNDAY`S CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE
MEANTIME...SATURDAY WILL BE WARM...BREEZY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND OCCANSIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. 31

[Paul Robison]

Yes, Cromagnum. Here is the latests NWS AFD:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 090331
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

.UPDATE...
POST-FRONTAL VEERING WINDS ARE NOW EASTERLY...ONSHORE BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE UPON SATURDAY`S
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLIES AS WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES LOWER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...
WILL TRAVEL ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FROM SLIGHT TOMORROW TO LIKELY
ON SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFDS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS THERE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY...THIS WEEKEND`S DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THE REGIONAL WARM NOSE/CAP.
WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MODELED TO REMAIN OFF ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS (ARKLATEX)...THE OVERALL STATE OF THIS CAP WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE SUNDAY`S CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE
MEANTIME...SATURDAY WILL BE WARM...BREEZY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND OCCANSIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. 31

[Andrew]

Every time I see the blue line way offshore and precip overrunning it, I immediately think "SNOW!" ...ugh I wish I could read these maps! lol

As mentioned before those maps can be deceiving due to the fact that it only shows temps at 850mb. A much better map is to look at the 500-1000mb thickness charts. It shows the average thickness levels throughout that level in the atmosphere. Since Colder air is more dense and "condensed" (with respect to warmer air) the thickness will be smaller. What the 500-1000mb thickness charts show, is the atmosphere more as a whole and if you get to the critical 540 line you can more than likely expect snow. Of course, like any other analysis, it comes with its exceptions such as an inversion but overall it is a good indicator. If you really want to know how the atmosphere truly looks though look at a skew-t map. There you can see the temperature throughout the whole vertical profile and you can truly see what type of precip you will receive. Skew-t maps are truly the most useful maps when looking at severe weather and precip types in my opinion. You can see lapse rates, CAPE, temps, dew points, saturation, and many other indexes for severe.

[srainhoutx]

I see where the NWS is saying that there is the possibility of strong capping going on for this Sat/Sun event. Possibility of very little rain with even less thunder?

Capping certainly appears to be an issue with the dry SW winds aloft moreso in areas near Wharton, Sugarland and areas S of I-10. Further N the cap may eroded enough to allow for isolated severe storms. If strong storms do develop, there is a chance for an isolated tornado or two as veering winds will support rotating super cells, if they can form. I believe the great threat may be over Louisiana and NE Texas, but the limiting factor maybe moisture return off the Gulf since we are still a bit dry in the dew point department with the frontal passage yesterday. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the early work week time frame as well as the models waffle with where the Pacific boundary expected tomorrow will actually stall. The NAM appears moisture starved and keeps the boundary N of the Middle and Upper TX Coast while the GFS/Euro bring that boundary near Coastal Texas into Louisiana. The main energy with this first round of the storm system will track ENE from CO into the Upper Mid West while a second vort max crosses New Mexico, West Central TX and along the Red River Valley. The forecast is very complicated and the effects of the Nor'easter on the upper pattern flow extends well W and IMO has created a lot of chaos with the computer models and that may continue for several days. What does appear likely is that the pattern will remain very unsettled well into next week with bouts of rain chances and roller coaster temps with an occasional day were we may actually get to see the sun, albeit brief.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST SAT FEB 09 2013

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED/RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST
OVER THE CONUS. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO THE
EJECTION/EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A 120+ KT POLAR JET AND
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.

...PORTIONS OF TX/OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR OUTLOOK...THE EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...IN MANY RESPECTS...IS TYPICAL OF ONE THAT MIGHT BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST /MIDDLE 60S F
DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO NEAR THE SOUTH TX COAST THIS MORNING/...AND A
SUBSTANTIVE INLAND MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF RECENT LOW-LEVEL COOLING/ANTICYCLONIC TRAJECTORIES.

THAT SAID...A SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT MAY EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/CAPROCK
VICINITY AND WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITHIN A NARROW/MARGINAL QUALITY MOIST AXIS IN VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LIKELY RELEGATED TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S F...RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WEAK BUT POTENTIALLY SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY /UP TO
500 J PER KG MLCAPE/...AND STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES COULD
SUPPORT A FEW LOW-TOPPED SEVERE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS. ACCORDINGLY...AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO AND HAIL/WINDS
PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

OF MORE CERTAINTY WILL BE FOR A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE/EXPANSION IN
TSTMS THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX AS WELL AS OK. THIS WILL BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO
RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...WITH
DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED NEAR AN EASTWARD ACCELERATING PACIFIC COLD FRONT
/AS IT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING/. THE NATURE OF THE
FORCING/SHEAR AND MODEST MOISTURE/BUOYANCY SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A
BROKEN QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT BY LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IN PROXIMITY TO A SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF TSTMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX MAY REMAIN NEAR-SURFACE BASED THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT MOISTURE WILL STEADILY RETURN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY. AS SUCH...AS LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK BY EARLY SUNDAY.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
FARTHER NORTH...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONSIDERABLY LIMITED BY AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH FORCING/SHEAR
WILL BE CONSEQUENTIAL IN VICINITY OF UPPER JET EXIT REGION/DEEPENING
HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW. EVEN WITH VERY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION
ANTICIPATED /A COUPLE HUNDRED J PER KG SBCAPE AT MOST/...A
LOW-TOPPED STRONG/PERHAPS SEVERE TSTM THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 02/09/2013

[srainhoutx]

HPC Morning Update provides to 'hints' to the very active pattern ahead and the uncertainty that remains during the coming week...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST SAT FEB 09 2013

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 12 2013 - 12Z SAT FEB 16 2013

...THE ACTIVE/STORMY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD VALID DAYS 4-7 WED-SAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITHIN A LARGE SCALE CONUS MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED ERN PAC RIDGE. RIDGE
AMPLITUDE SEEMS WELL SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM DEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD ALASKA COMMON IN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST...SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY LATE WEEK. TWO
PRIMARY SYSTEMS OF INTEREST INCLUDE A WAVE TRACKING NEWD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL LOW AND
LATER AS NRN PAC ENERGY DIGS/AMPLIFIES DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL US
LEADING TO A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ERN US STORM BY NEXT WEEKEND.

HPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVE
BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM AN EVEN COMPROMISE BLEND OF THE 00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TUE/WED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE 06
UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BY NEXT FRI/SAT.

WITH THE GULF TO ATLC SFC LOW DURING THE WED-THU TIME
FRAME...RECENT ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUGGEST A LOW TRACK BETWEEN
RECENT GFS AND MORE OFFSHORE ECMWF RUNS WITH THE LEADING EAST
COAST LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. GFS RUNS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ON
THE NWRN SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD THOUGH NOT TO THE POINT
OF BEING OUTLIERS RELATIVE TO INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLOW CONTAINING THE SUPPORTING
ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... AND POSITIVE
TILT OF THE ESTABLISHED LARGE SCALE MEAN PATTERN...SEEM TO FAVOR
AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION.

UPSTREAM NRN PAC ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN AMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUS
AROUND WED-THU...THIS MAY END UP BEING A RATHER COMPLEX SYSTEM.
TO SIMPLIFY AMID UNCERTAINTY YET STILL MAINTAIN SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
THREAT...THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERS A COMPROMISE
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL US BETWEEN
00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE LESS NEGATIVE TILT
OF THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TROUGH SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
ENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM THE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE POSITION.

SCHICHTEL

[srainhoutx]

Some mid day thoughts regarding the upcoming pattern:

There remains a lot of uncertainty in the upcoming 2-5 days. The morning trends are to move the upper and surface low currently over NW New Mexico further S than the guidance has been suggesting. That scenario may tend to increase the severe threat later this afternoon/evening across W Central Texas as well as the Panhandle. Further north in the cold sector, Blizzard conditions are likely across the Central/Northern Plains with hefty snow totals and very gusty winds. The fly in the ointment for our Region is just how far S the frontal boundary will set up and stall. The trends seen today suggest the next in a series of short waves dropping into the Great Basin may well be stronger. It is becoming bit more clear a surface wave of low pressure will develop along the Lower Texas Coast and trek ENE along that stalled boundary near Coastal Texas. Increasing storm chances, some possibly severe will begin later today to our W and march E. A broken squall line may well develop from near Senora up to just E of Lubbock and grow during the overnight hours. While the greatest threat for heavy rain remain limited to E Texas/Louisiana, it is not out of the question that near 1 inch totals may fall across Central/SE Texas mainly along and E of the I-35 Corridor.

Monday night into Tuesday may be rather wet and stormy as the Coast Low develops and the second short wave and attending 500mb upper low/trough marches E. In the cold sector mainly N of I-20, wintry weather chances appear to be increasing with a heavy rain potential further S into Central/E Texas and Louisiana. Clouds with some wrap around very light moisture may linger into Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT FEB 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND INTO WRN AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY WITH STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPANDING SWD TO
THE GULF COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ERN NEB
INTO IA BY 00Z...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM STL TO MEM
TO HOU. PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL ALLOW A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS LA...SRN AR...MS...AND AL WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID 60S F. THESE BOUNDARIES...AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCI
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

...ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN
AR/SERN OK INTO NERN TX. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALREADY BE STRONGLY
SHEARED...AND THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING INCREASING DEEP
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE SPREADING EWD AND LIKELY ENHANCING SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION...THUS THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH
TIME ACROSS SRN AR...NERN TX AND NRN LA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE S OF THE WARM FRONT MAINLY
THROUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AS HEATING SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED.
ALTHOUGH CAPPED EARLY...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGLY
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM TORNADO
PROBABILITY FROM NERN LA INTO MUCH OF CNTRL MS...IMMEDIATELY S OF/OR
AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL AR/NRN MS MCS. WITH LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS...A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES COULD OCCUR. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SEVERE COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACTIVITY PRECLUDES
HIGHER OVERALL PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 02/09/2013

[srainhoutx]

As I mentioned to Portastorm yesterday, WSR (Winter Storm Recon) has been tasked for the Pacific once again due to all the uncertainty in the upcoming pattern and just what the effects will be across the Country.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST SAT 09 FEBRUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013
WSPOD NUMBER.....12-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: ALASKAN-BASED TRACK
P16/ DROP 8 (40.0N 164.0W)/ 12/0000Z
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE
P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z

[TexasBreeze]

The onshore flow over cool shelf waters is causing plenty of clouds to develop today. With onshore flow continuing and sw upper flow, it's hardly going to rain tmw, let alone storm. IMO.

[Andrew]

Sounding from KCLL at Midnight:

[Belmer]

As Ed just posted, Tornado Watch for the following...


Tornado Watch in effect until 9AM CST SUN

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 29 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 16 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BANDERA BASTROP BLANCO BURNET CALDWELL COMAL GILLESPIE GUADALUPE HAYS KENDALL KERR LEE LLANO REAL TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF

AUSTIN

BANDERA

BASTROP

BLANCO

BOERNE

BURNET

FREDERICKSBURG

GEORGETOWN

GIDDINGS

KERRVILLE

LEAKEY

LLANO

LOCKHART

NEW BRAUNFELS

SAN MARCOS AND SEGUIN.

[txflagwaver]

Lots of lightning and thunder here...enough to wake me up and make the gods go nuts. Not a drop of rain tho

[srainhoutx]

The Pacific front just passed NW Harris County with a whopping 12 degree drop to 61F. Only light rains so far up here and a few rumbles of thunder, but it does look like we are in for a damp couple of days and even some elevated storms possible across Central and E Texas Monday into Tuesday with some accumulating snow in Northern New Mexico, The Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles on E across Central and Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas, depending on the eventual storm track of the next upper air disturbance currently over Southern California and Arizona.

[mckinne63]

It's cloudy and windy here in Stafford, thus far only a sprinkle or two. The skies are looking darker now. Very muggy outside too. Come on rain!

[cisa]

I guess I picked a good day to finish my defensive driving. It's pouring in Porter.