N. ATL Hurricane Season 2013 Discussions

[vci_guy2003]

at this rate all forecasts are gonna bust for the season

[Rip76]

FWIW,
It is now Invest 92L.

[rnmm]

FWIW we also have invest 93L

[TexasBreeze]

I'm starting to find it hard to believe there will be 18 named systems during the next 3 months. it would have to ramp up and keep real busy constantly during that time. There have been 4 so far though so it's possible.
This may not be our year for for a system. The high is either on us or to the west which blocks Texas and the trough in the east too. The pattern is locked in. IMO.

[SusieinLP]

As of now there are two invests 92L and now 93L out in the Atlantic. Not sure if they will ever make it to a named storms but the tropics seem to be showing signs of life.

[Texas Pirate]

I truly believe its an EAST of Texas cane summer anyway.
Fine by me, I just want an inch or two of rain, with no drama involved.

[srainhoutx]

^^

92 L discussions are on the Main Page August thread, Ed.

[unome]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 35.6W AT 17/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 690 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CONVECTION
IS N OF THE EXPESED LOW LEVEL CENTER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 33W-
36W.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 26N90W
THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 21N93W TO S MEXICO NEAR 17N94W.
A MID/UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE NEAR 22N90W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDING AN AXIS E OF THE LOWS
THROUGH THE GULF TO ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA DRAWING THE
MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NE OF THE LOW LEVEL
SYSTEM. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W ALONG 26N87W TO OVER
NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N56W TO
10N56W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N70W
TO 13N71W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF 16N IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERING THE AREA FROM
PUERTO RICO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 64W-75W
INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N15W CONTINUING ALONG 9N20W TO 10N27W THEN RESUMES
SW OF T.S. ERIN NEAR 13N41W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N46W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE LOW NEAR 12N48W AND CONTINUES ALONG
11N55W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 14W-22W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N
BETWEEN 40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER E GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW IN THE SW GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO S TEXAS AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SW GEORGIA INTO
THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA TO A WEAK 1014 MB LOW JUST W OF NEW
ORLEANS THEN RE-EMERGING INTO THE GULF OVER ATCHAFALAYA BAY
LOUISIANA TO NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 93W. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDING AN AXIS OVER
THE E GULF ALONG 26N85W TO ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC DRAWING MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE E GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL
FEATURES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A W-NW DIRECTION
REACHING THE W/CENTRAL GULF LATE SUN THEN MOVING INLAND OVER
EXTREME SE TEXAS COAST LATE MON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH MON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W WHILE A
SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER
ACROSS JAMAICA AND E CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W
OF 77W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 18N61W TO
20N64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN ON SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE
AND WED.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
GENERATING THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO OVER HAITI TODAY BRINGING THESE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND LATE SUN THROUGH TUE
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER OR MORE FREQUENT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N70W.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY
FRONT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 76W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N48W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
47W-54W. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
LIFT IN N TO NEAR 31N TODAY AND SUN AND SHIFT N OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. THE N PORTION OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FAR SW ATLC THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

[Rip76]

Ed,
I just came here to post about that little blob that the Fla. Keys coughed up.

I don't see much, but it is August so something to watch. It appears that blob is really crusin' though.

[wxman57]

Something to at least keep an eye on, Ed. Alicia formed from a blob of storms similar to that back in 1983. Pressure at the buoy to its north is falling, though still 1015mb or more.

[Rip76]

WX are you referring to the just west of Key West blob?
and is that from a leftover frontal boundary?

[wxman57]

WX are you referring to the just west of Key West blob?
and is that from a leftover frontal boundary?

Yes, that's the area. It's not frontal in origin. Could be a very weak tropical wave interacting with a weak upper low over the NW Caribbean. Conditions in its path are not that favorable for development.

[Rip76]

Could this bring rain is the question...

[wxman57]

Could this bring rain is the question...

I'm not holding my breath...

However, the MIMIC TPW animation does indicate a flow of moisture from the Gulf to SE TX in the works. Maybe that will be enough to allow the development of a few showers in the next few days.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Rip76]

No way would I touch that bet.

Wsw movement doesn't help us much anyway..

[Rip76]

Ed wins...

[srainhoutx]

While the MJO (Madden–Julian Oscillation) is only part of the equation one looks to for increased tropical development, the signals are becoming rather strong that increased tropical activity may well be possible as we head toward peak season. The European 51 member ensembles as well as the CFSv2 suggest increasing tropical convection spreading E from the Eastern Pacific into the Atlantic Basin. Lower pressures are beginning to develop across the Caribbean and the Gulf in response to the advancing MJO pulse and we are seeing tropical cyclones developing across the Central Pacific as well as the Eastern Pacific in response to the vertical lift and the eastward propagating wave. Tis that time of the season when all eyes turn to the tropics and monitor closely day by day. Stay tuned...

[Ptarmigan]

There is a thunderstorm area in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

850mb Vorticity - North Atlantic
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Lower Convergence - North Atlantic
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Station 42003
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Latest Satellite Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/gmex.html

I think this one should be watched.

[wxman57]

Here's a sat pic with surface obs plotted. I identified the trof axis. Pressures still high in the region - 1016mb to 1018mb. Could produce wind gusts 45-50 kts at some of the offshore platforms in the next 24 hours, but that's about it. GFS weakens the vorticity when it moves into the TX coast Saturday morning. Could be enough to enhance daytime storms in our area over the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

A bit different look at the TC Genesis Probabilities that I post from time to time that include the NCEP, FNMOC, CMC and European Ensembles. You will also notice the difference between the NCEP Ensembles Probabilities that include possible tracks whereas this version is just where the combination of ensembles 'believe' Tropical Cyclone genesis is possible. Notice the SW Caribbean or what I like to call the 'Carla Cradle' has some enhanced probability during the next 120 hours. The EPAC has the highest probabilities at this time. We will see.