N. ATL Hurricane Season 2013 Discussions

[srainhoutx]

Generally the globals and ensembles are in somewhat good agreement that the upper ridge will hold over the next 4-6 day across the Southern Plains and the SE US. Those models to suggest the ridge shift a bit N and E next week and a surge of deep tropical moisture enter the NW Caribbean. Next week that increased deep tropical moisture does enter the Western Gulf as the monsoonal trough lifts N. What the globals are ‘sniffing’ is a monsoonal gyre that festers in the NW Caribbean/Yucatan/Bay of Campeche. This is a fairly typical pattern for June. As we move into the later part June/early July, that area will need to be watched for TC genesis. Some folks tend to dismiss the Bay of Campche as a place for TC genesis, but that area is somewhat favored in the pattern ahead and my hunch is we’ll see a tropical cyclone develop be it a depression or TS over the next 10 days. The GFS and its ensembles are certainly keying in on that general location putting the Mexican Gulf Coast as well as Texas into Louisiana in a somewhat favorable location for landfall if anything develops. One thing I will add. We are not in a pattern where a prolonged drought across Mexico/Texas and Louisiana is conducive to a strong blocking upper ridge all season. Our friend wxmx, a venerable member of AMWX and our KHOU forum has been getting pounded with storms and heavy rain in Monterrey and we here in Texas and Louisiana have seen plentiful storms as of late. Caribbean and Gulf action is looking more likely as we move ahead into the season, IMO.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical mischief brewing in the Bay of Campeche late next week? The reliable global and ensemble guidance suggest there may be some potential.

The attachment 06132013 18Z GFS gfs_wnatl_180_850_vort_ht.gif is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

As we have been mentioning over the past several days, the reliable global and ensemble guidance continue to advertise a surge of deep tropical moisture spreading generally WNW from the NW Caribbean Sea into the Bay of Campeche later next week. The operational GFS and European models are keying in on a weak tropical system that begins to slowly develop with that moisture surge. The upper ridge will shift W and a weakness develops across the Western Gulf allowing for that deep tropical moisture to spread NW toward NE Mexico and Coastal Texas. While no real development is expected at this time, the Bay of Campeche will be the area to watch for a possible tropical depression/weak tropical storm to spin up. The mostly likely solution would be for any surface low to move into the Mexican Gulf Coast N of Veracruz on up to the Tampico, but with a S to SE long fetch of winds along the eastern flank of that disturbance, plentiful tropical moisture would head generally NW toward the Texas/Louisiana Coast bringing increasing chances of tropical down pours.

00Z European:

06Z GFS:

[srainhoutx]

The reliable models are beginning to converge on a solution that brings a robust easterly tropical wave into the Bay of Campeche next Wednesday into Thursday. The GFS suggests the disturbance will stay further S near the Veracruz Region while the Euro brings the disturbance further N and just offshore of Tampico. Regardless of any development, increasing deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean above 2 standard deviations of normal for this time of year may well spread across Coastal Texas with heavy tropical rains in S Texas on up to the Middle and Upper Texas Coast where lesser amount may develop. Should this disturbance become better organized, higher rainfall amounts are possible and may extend further N or inland. Interests along the Western Gulf should monitor the weather in case tropical development occurs. The upper air pattern appears somewhat favorable as the upper ridge weakens and moves W and a weakness develops across the Western Gulf into NE Mexico and Texas.

[TexasBreeze]

Galveston YouTube videos only 16 days away?!?

[srainhoutx]

A broad area of low pressure is developing with the easterly wave currently in the SW Caribbean. Continues appear to improve as the wave moves into the NW Caribbean early next week. There is a Kelvin Wave propagating E across the Pacific Ocean, so increasing convection should develop along the monsoonal trough that extends from the EPAC into the Western Atlantic Basin. The models are suggesting a broad monsoonal gyre/low pressure developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EPAC) extending E into the Bay of Campeche mid next week. The NHC has a 10% chance of development on that feature now. I suspect if covection persists overnight into tomorrow we may see an Invest 94 L designated. We will see.

[unome]

A broad area of low pressure is developing with the easterly wave currently in the SW Caribbean. Continues appear to improve as the wave moves into the NW Caribbean early next week. There is a Kelvin Wave propagating E across the Pacific Ocean, so increasing convection should develop along the monsoonal trough that extends from the EPAC into the Western Atlantic Basin. The models are suggesting a broad monsoonal gyre/low pressure developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EPAC) extending E into the Bay of Campeche mid next week. The NHC has a 10% chance of development on that feature now. I suspect if covection persists overnight into tomorrow we may see an Invest 94 L designated. We will see.

I think it will be 93L ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

8 AM is up already http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 21N79W
ALONG 17N81W TO 10N81W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS ALSO BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ANY ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N18W TO 11N20W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N25W 7N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-19W AND FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 27W-55W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4N-8N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM SW
GEORGIA TO 27N84W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPLY SUPPORT FOR THE
STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM ACROSS FLORIDA
JUST N OF FORT MYERS ALONG 28N84W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA WHERE IT CONTINUES INLAND N OF MOBILE
ALABAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF NE OF THE FRONT TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING W AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AT 16/0900 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 22N92W TO NEAR 19N92W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE GULF W OF 90W AND ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N87W TO INLAND
OVER SE LOUISIANA BEYOND 30N91W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THU. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON ENTERING THE SW
GULF EARLY TUE AND ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH THU
WITH SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE S OF 21N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 84W-90W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS
ALSO EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 76W-87W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
18N78W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W-NW AND INTERACT
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN FURTHER ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MON. WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING
THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME SPARSE THIS MORNING BUT WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-80W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 16/0900 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N60W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N66W TO 26N71W WHERE IT IS WEAKENS
AND BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER
THE FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF FORT MYERS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
TO BEYOND 32N56W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W ALONG 25N64W TO BEYOND 32N58W. HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1022
MB HIGH NEAR 32N73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AND BENIGN UPPER FEATURES ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N42W AND WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING S OF
THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE W OF 70W TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO NEAR BERMUDA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
THEN SHIFT S TO 28N THROUGH THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES N OF
THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


Masters already has a blog post on it today: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2436

[srainhoutx]

A broad area of low pressure is developing with the easterly wave currently in the SW Caribbean. Continues appear to improve as the wave moves into the NW Caribbean early next week. There is a Kelvin Wave propagating E across the Pacific Ocean, so increasing convection should develop along the monsoonal trough that extends from the EPAC into the Western Atlantic Basin. The models are suggesting a broad monsoonal gyre/low pressure developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EPAC) extending E into the Bay of Campeche mid next week. The NHC has a 10% chance of development on that feature now. I suspect if covection persists overnight into tomorrow we may see an Invest 94 L designated. We will see.

I think it will be 93L ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

8 AM is up already http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 21N79W
ALONG 17N81W TO 10N81W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS ALSO BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ANY ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N18W TO 11N20W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N25W 7N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 16W-19W AND FROM 3N-9N
BETWEEN 27W-55W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4N-8N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM SW
GEORGIA TO 27N84W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPLY SUPPORT FOR THE
STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM ACROSS FLORIDA
JUST N OF FORT MYERS ALONG 28N84W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA WHERE IT CONTINUES INLAND N OF MOBILE
ALABAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF NE OF THE FRONT TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING W AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND AT 16/0900 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 22N92W TO NEAR 19N92W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE GULF W OF 90W AND ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N87W TO INLAND
OVER SE LOUISIANA BEYOND 30N91W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THU. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON ENTERING THE SW
GULF EARLY TUE AND ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH THU
WITH SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE S OF 21N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 84W-90W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS
ALSO EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 76W-87W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
18N78W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W-NW AND INTERACT
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN FURTHER ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE MON. WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING
THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME SPARSE THIS MORNING BUT WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-80W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 16/0900 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N60W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N66W TO 26N71W WHERE IT IS WEAKENS
AND BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER
THE FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF FORT MYERS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
TO BEYOND 32N56W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W ALONG 25N64W TO BEYOND 32N58W. HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1022
MB HIGH NEAR 32N73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AND BENIGN UPPER FEATURES ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N42W AND WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING S OF
THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE W OF 70W TODAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO NEAR BERMUDA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
THEN SHIFT S TO 28N THROUGH THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES N OF
THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


Masters already has a blog post on it today: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2436

You are correct, unome. I guess my mind turned to that short lived 93E a week or two ago. I stand corrected. I see the NHC has raised the chance of developing to 20%. There was a nice convective burst of shore of Honduras last night that maintained this feature. We'll see what the next 24 hours bring since the overnight models are not sure where this disturbance actually develops (EPAC Gulf of Tehuantepec or Bay of Campeche). Monsoonal gyre/broad low pressure systems tend to give the models fits. Remember the Debby debacle last year when the Euro insisted that it would be a NW Gulf threat and the GFS remained steadfast in a sloppy TS heading toward the NE Gulf.

[unome]

something to watch & it's rather pretty on satellite

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... ralAmerica&

[Ptarmigan]

Food for thought as we had 9th coolest spring on record. I ran a statistical analysis of Spring Temperatures from 1895 to 2012 for the Upper Texas Coast. Spring is from March to May. Here is the outcome. The correlation is two-tailed.

Tropical Storm
r = -0.03
p = 0.71

Hurricane
r = 0.10
p = 0.26

Major Hurricane
r = -0.21
p = 0.02

Total Tropical Cyclone Landfall
r = -0.05
p = 0.58

There is a significant correlation between cooler springs and major hurricanes making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in the same year. The p-value is below 0.05. The cooler the spring is, the more chance to see a landfall. Does it mean if we have a cool spring, do we always see major hurricanes making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast? No, just more chance seeing one. Correlation does not equate causation, but interesting to note.

Interestingly, if spring is warmer, Upper Texas Coast is more likely to see a hurricane make landfall. However, the correlation is not significant enough as the p-value is above 0.05.

Major Hurricanes In Top 20 Coolest Spring
1915-Galveston Hurricane of 1915 (Category 3)
1932-Freeport Hurricane (Category 4)
1941-Hurricane #2 (Category 3 Based on Reanalysis)
1983-Alicia (Category 3)

Hurricanes In Top 20 Coolest Spring
1947-Hurricane 3 (Category 1)

The 1915 Hurricane was a Category 4 at landfall and if it happened today it would about $70 billion in damages. It likely brought Category 3+ winds in Houston. The 1932 Hurricane was small, but very intense. Like the 1915 Hurricane, it brought Houston Category 3+ winds. Despite its small size, it managed to kill 40 people. The 1941 Hurricane strength is disputed. It is usually classified as Category 1 at landfall, but there were wind reports of 100 mph. One data suggest it was a Category 3 at landfall. Hurricane Alicia was a devastating hurricane that formed in a quiet season. It formed from a complex of thunderstorms from a unusual summer cold front. The 1915 and 1941 hurricanes were large, while 1932 hurricane was small. Alicia was medium size.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1941.asp
http://www.wxresearch.org/family/hurtex.htm

[srainhoutx]

The June 19th Global and ensemble MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) forecasts are strongly suggesting a favorable pulse arriving across the EPAC and the Western Atlantic Basin as we begin July. If such a propagation does develop, increased tropical development potential should begin to take shape near the July 4th timeframe and extend into mid July. The favored areas for development appears to be W of 50W or the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Increased tropical cyclone genesis is also looking likely later next week across the EPAC.

[Paul Robison]

GFS operational has had several runs with a North or Northeast Gulf system from the W. Caribbean, already developing at the resolution chop, but has only tepid ensemble support and no obvious support from the other globals.

GFS ensemble MJO forecast similar to, but more amplified than the generally more reliable Euro ensemble MJO forecast. Both heading for a more favorable phase for early July, but only GFS suggesting development.


Worth watching, but not too exciting, yet.

Anyone know of any GFS runs that have depicted a Gulf system landfall in the Houston/Galveston area?

[rnmm]

I have been keeping an eye on model runs, I have not seen a GFS run that suggests a Houston/Galveston landfall of any storm.

[texoz]

If nothing changes, with the ridge centered to our Northwest and a weakness to our East, storms will tend to either head West under the ridge into Mexico, or, at best, Deep South Texas, or head for the weakness from about SE Louisiana to Florida, or even the SE Coast.

Of course, the weakness/ridge combo could shift further West, or further North in the next 3 months. Or it could shift far enough East to put Texas on the Western side of the ridge.

But I suspect Eastern Gulf to SE Coast will have the highest risk. Looking at other forums and analogs. I only suspect, iron clad statements anger the small g gods of weather, and destroy beach party homes. Rather pagan and superstitious, but starting to water my lawn Wednesday made it rain on my yard. The weather gods can be head-faked. But guaranteeing destruction of Galveston may be to obvious.

South Texas to Houston along the coast are kind of due for a TS or hurricane this season. Just a hunch, but we've had a steady flow off the GOM here in C. Texas this spring/early summer and it "feels" like a pathway is set up.

[Paul Robison]

GFS operational has had several runs with a North or Northeast Gulf system from the W. Caribbean, already developing at the resolution chop, but has only tepid ensemble support and no obvious support from the other globals.

GFS ensemble MJO forecast similar to, but more amplified than the generally more reliable Euro ensemble MJO forecast. Both heading for a more favorable phase for early July, but only GFS suggesting development.


Worth watching, but not too exciting, yet.

Anyone know of any GFS runs that have depicted a Gulf system landfall in the Houston/Galveston area?

I forgot to mention the one forecast model that likes to send TSs and Hurricanes to Houston/Galveston: The CMC (Canadian Meteorological Centre). Anybody seen the latest CMC model run?

[Paul Robison]

Good news, the Canadian promises to ruin July 4th holiday weekend.


Yes, good news. Its the Canadian.

Should Houstonians worry about what the Canadain says, Ed?

[srainhoutx]

Good news, the Canadian promises to ruin July 4th holiday weekend.


Yes, good news. Its the Canadian.

Should Houstonians worry about what the Canadain says, Ed?

The 'Canadian' is notorious for spinning up every disturbance to a big cyclone. I'd trust the GFS and Euro as well as their ensembles for 'sniffing' out tropical genesis. The reliable models are suggesting a EPAC/Bay of Campeche threat maybe as far N as the Rio Grande Valley depending on just how deep the EC trough develops and retreats as well as the Bermuda Ridge and the Upper Ridge to our NW. Too soon to know with any certainty beyond 4-6 days, if then.

[srainhoutx]

The NCEP Tropical Cyclone Genesis guidance suggests the Bay of Campeche will be the area to watch during the first couple of weeks of July.

[srainhoutx]

As mentioned in the main weather forum page a day or two ago, a tropical wave is progressing W approaching the Lesser Antilles. MIMIC is suggesting the surge of tropical moisture will continue to move W to WNW over the next 4 days. There is some potential as the ensemble guidance has suggested that a weak tropical system could develop next week in the Bay of Campeche as this area of disturbed weather enters the Western Gulf.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[unome]

it's starting to roll pretty good



http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2453

By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 1:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2013

A tropical disturbance over the Central Gulf of Mexico is headed northwest towards Texas at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance, which is suffering from high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots due to strong upper-level winds from a trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico. Dry air from the trough is also interfering with development. The upper-level trough is expected to weaken and pull to the north over the weekend, potentially bringing slightly more favorable conditions for development over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Sunday. The atmosphere will moisten and wind shear may fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. The disturbance should move northwest, arriving at the Upper Texas coast by Sunday morning. Heavy rains of 1 - 3" can be expected along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts Sunday morning through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 5 outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday.



http://blog.chron.com/weather/2013/07/w ... ar-future/

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