N. ATL Hurricane Season 2013 Discussions

[Rip76]

WX are you referring to the just west of Key West blob?
and is that from a leftover frontal boundary?

[wxman57]

WX are you referring to the just west of Key West blob?
and is that from a leftover frontal boundary?

Yes, that's the area. It's not frontal in origin. Could be a very weak tropical wave interacting with a weak upper low over the NW Caribbean. Conditions in its path are not that favorable for development.

[Rip76]

Could this bring rain is the question...

[wxman57]

Could this bring rain is the question...

I'm not holding my breath...

However, the MIMIC TPW animation does indicate a flow of moisture from the Gulf to SE TX in the works. Maybe that will be enough to allow the development of a few showers in the next few days.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Rip76]

No way would I touch that bet.

Wsw movement doesn't help us much anyway..

[Rip76]

Ed wins...

[srainhoutx]

While the MJO (Madden–Julian Oscillation) is only part of the equation one looks to for increased tropical development, the signals are becoming rather strong that increased tropical activity may well be possible as we head toward peak season. The European 51 member ensembles as well as the CFSv2 suggest increasing tropical convection spreading E from the Eastern Pacific into the Atlantic Basin. Lower pressures are beginning to develop across the Caribbean and the Gulf in response to the advancing MJO pulse and we are seeing tropical cyclones developing across the Central Pacific as well as the Eastern Pacific in response to the vertical lift and the eastward propagating wave. Tis that time of the season when all eyes turn to the tropics and monitor closely day by day. Stay tuned...

[Ptarmigan]

There is a thunderstorm area in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

850mb Vorticity - North Atlantic
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Lower Convergence - North Atlantic
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Station 42003
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Latest Satellite Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/gmex.html

I think this one should be watched.

[wxman57]

Here's a sat pic with surface obs plotted. I identified the trof axis. Pressures still high in the region - 1016mb to 1018mb. Could produce wind gusts 45-50 kts at some of the offshore platforms in the next 24 hours, but that's about it. GFS weakens the vorticity when it moves into the TX coast Saturday morning. Could be enough to enhance daytime storms in our area over the weekend.

[srainhoutx]

A bit different look at the TC Genesis Probabilities that I post from time to time that include the NCEP, FNMOC, CMC and European Ensembles. You will also notice the difference between the NCEP Ensembles Probabilities that include possible tracks whereas this version is just where the combination of ensembles 'believe' Tropical Cyclone genesis is possible. Notice the SW Caribbean or what I like to call the 'Carla Cradle' has some enhanced probability during the next 120 hours. The EPAC has the highest probabilities at this time. We will see.

[Rip76]

Decent look this morning.
Who knows.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[srainhoutx]

One has to think the GFS is benefiting from the additional data from the Global Hawk mission across the Eastern Atlantic and that trend continues with the 12Z GFS that we saw last night with the 00Z suite of guidance.

[srainhoutx]

For the past several cycles, the operational on ensemble guidance have been rather insistent that the MDR (Main Development Region) W of 50 could become favorable for tropical cyclone genesis. That trend continues today as the ITCZ and associated tropical waves move along and S of 20 degrees N traversing W bound. It is also note worthy that the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) is decreasing over time and the Kelvin Wave that aided in allowing Fernand to develop in the Western Atlantic Basin is progressing E. Also the MJO does continue to suggest favorable conditions for tropical development as one of the strongest pulses we have seen since 1989 progresses E bound in the Tropical Atlantic. As peak season draws closers and attention turns to the start of school and dreams of cooler weather, it serves as a reminder that we are not done with tropical season just yet and we will monitor daily for any tropical troubles that may head our way.

The attachment 08272013 00Z Multi Model TC Genesis Probs genprob_4enscon_2013082700_altg_000_120.png is no longer available

[Ptarmigan]

Atlantic Hurricane Season: The Saharan Air Layer and Vertical Wind Shear
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hour ... ntrynum=64

What impact does Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and vertical wind shear have on hurricanes.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...


$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Rip76]

NHC Area of interest over the Yuc.
10%.

I assume this just crashes into Mexico like all the rest?

[Texas Pirate]

Please BOC blob ....send your bad self to Houston

[Rip76]

Of Course -


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

THE TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EAST PACIFIC WITH A 1009 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16N102W.
REMNANT CONVECTION LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 93W.

[srainhoutx]

RECON has been tasked to fly the Bay of Campeche suspect area is need be. Also there is a lot of other tasking for 97L that includes a low level flight and the Global Hawk mission...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 04/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
       C. 04/1700Z
       D. 16.8N 65.5W
       E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 
       A. FIX MISSION AT 05/1800Z NEAR 19.5N 68.5W IF SYSTEM    
          DEVELOPS.
       B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
          20.0N 94.5W AT 05/1730Z. 

    3. REMARKS: THE INVEST FOR THIS AREA TODAY AT 03/2100Z
       WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1100Z.


    4. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
       MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
       A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
       B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-LEEWARD ISLANDS
       C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1500Z, 04 SEP
       D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
       E. IP: 1900Z, 04 SEP; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
       F. EP:  1000Z, 4 SEPT; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
       G. ON-STATION DURATION:  15H 00M
       H. ETA WFF: 1500Z, 05 SEPT
       I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 84
       J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
       K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF CIRCULATION
          IN BOX BOUNDED BY 22.8N 67.5W, 17.0N 67.6W,
          14.8N 55.3W AND 22.8N 55.3W 
       L. COMMENT: NA871 LANDING WFF AT 1100Z, 4 SEP
       M. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 1500Z, 5 SEP

[Rip76]

Ed thanks...

I misread it as "pulling all the moisture into the Epac with it."