N. ATL Hurricane Season 2013 Discussions

[srainhoutx]

For those looking for tropical development, keep a close eye on the Western Caribbean and the Gulf for the next week to 10 days. The Global ensembles are suggesting increased tropical development chances across the Western Atlantic Basin. We are already beginning to see pressure fall across this Region in response and increased convection is developing as seen with the designation of 99L this morning. In fact the operational GFS has been suggesting abundant deep tropical moisture will become entrenched across the NW Caribbean and Western Gulf of Mexico.

[Rip76]

So basically, this will just pull moisture away from us?

[srainhoutx]

RECON will fly the Gulf today and possibly tomorrow and some interesting movement of additional aircraft to St. Croix.

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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1120 AM EDT THU 05 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-096

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      
       A. 06/1800Z          
       B. AFXXX 0307A GABRIELLE     
       C. 06/1615Z                
       D. 21.0N 70.0W             
       E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2100Z    
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        

    2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
       A. 06/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0208A CYCLONE
       C. 06/0900Z
       D. 21.5N 97.3W
       E. 06/1130Z TO 06/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

    4. REMARKS:
       A. THE MISSIONS ON GABRIELLE FOR 05/1800Z, 06/0000Z
          AND 06/0600Z WERE CANCELED AT 05/1400Z BY NHC.
       B. NOAA WILL DEPLOY EITHER ONE OR 3 AIRCRAFT TO ST CROIX
          FRIDAY FOR RESEARCH MISSIONS THIS WEEKEND

[srainhoutx]

While there remains some day to day difference in the operational and ensemble guidance, the general pattern suggests lower pressures and generally disturbed weather will remain across the Western Caribbean Sea and the Western Gulf of Mexico. The upper ridge will build further E into the Tennessee Valley as an Eastern trough develops over the Great Lakes Region. A parade of tropical disturbances along the Mexico Pacific Coast supply ample deep tropical moisture into the Desert SW for the foreseeable future. One interesting note is the American and European ensembles remain steadfast in bringing easterly waves NW from the Western Caribbean and then into the Western Gulf. Convection continues to abound across both these areas and the ensembles continue to advertise that trend will continue during the next 10 to 15 days. The longer range ensembles are also suggesting a rather strong tropical disturbance will be near the Yucatan Peninsula during the mid September time frame. While it is too soon to know with any certainty where these disturbances will travel or develop, the general trend suggests a stormy pattern in the Tropical Western Atlantic Basin may well unfold before we enter the late September period.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Multi Model TC Genesis Probabilities continue to suggest the SW Caribbean Sea does have a fairly high chance of developing a storm in the medium to long range. The operational GFS and European have been 'sniffing' that area for potential TC development and their ensembles do suggest lower pressure across the Western half of the Caribbean at that time. It is also noteworthy that an upper ridge is being modeled over the Western/Central Gulf of Mexico as well and once a secondary trough passes next weekend, perhaps conditions may be a bit more conducive for TC development.

[texoz]

So, when do we start talking about the crazy model prediction for the Nov 6th time frame?

[Paul Robison]

So, when do we start talking about the crazy model prediction for the Nov 6th time frame?

We start talking now, I'm afraid. Is it true that the Canadian model has been trying to spin up a system in the central caribbean and shoot it at S.Texas?

[unome]

NOAA: Slow Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close

No major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin - first time since 1994

Thirteen named storms formed in the Atlantic basin this year. Two, Ingrid and Humberto, became hurricanes, but neither became major hurricanes. Although the number of named storms was above the average of 12, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were well below their averages of six and three, respectively. Major hurricanes are categories 3 and above.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... eason.html