May: Isolated Showers To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

The overnight models are coming into better agreement that May will begin with unseasonably cool temps and a dry NW flow aloft. A strong front bringing Canadian air very far S into the NW Gulf will be the theme as we begin the new month Wednesday night into Thursday. There are also indications that frontal low will develop near Florida with a rather deep upper low spinning over the Tennessee Valley Region reinforcing the cool Continental air mass into next weekend and early into the first full week of May.

Euro Ensemble Mean 850mb Temp Anomalies:

GEFS Mean 850mb Temp Anomalies:

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance is in good agreement that a unseasonably strong front will march S across the Region Thursday. A cutoff upper low across the Mississippi River Valley will allow for cool Canadian air to filter well S into the weekend with a NW flow aloft. Near record minimum daytime highs appears likely Friday with temps struggling to reach the low to mid 60’s. Night time lows in the 40’s are possible early Friday and Saturday N of I-10 with the 50’s to the S. Rain chances appear to be a skinny line of showers and storms as the strong front moves through. In the extended range, warmer temps return next week as High pressure builds across the West and expands into the Plains.

[Katdaddy]

Storm complex moving through the Corpus Christi area will remain off the Upper TX Coast this morning. Slow moving upper level low will provide another tough forecast. Additional convective development today across SE TX but to difficult to pin down locations. Where convective development does occur locally heavy rains will be possible from slow moving and training cells. Strong cold front to arrive Thursday which will give us perfect weather for the first weekend of May.

[Ptarmigan]

I ran a statistical analysis of Spring Temperatures from 1895 to 2012 for the Upper Texas Coast. Spring is from March to May. Here is the outcome. The correlation is two-tailed.

Tropical Storm
r = -0.03
p = 0.71

Hurricane
r = 0.10
p = 0.26

Major Hurricane
r = -0.21
p = 0.02

Total Tropical Cyclone Landfall
r = -0.05
p = 0.58

There is a significant correlation between cooler springs and major hurricanes making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in the same year. The p-value is below 0.05. The cooler the spring is, the more chance to see a landfall. Does it mean if we have a cool spring, do we always see major hurricanes making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast? No, just more chance seeing one. Correlation does not equate causation, but interesting to note.

Interestingly, if spring is warmer, Upper Texas Coast is more likely to see a hurricane make landfall. However, the correlation is not significant enough as the p-value is above 0.05.

Top 20 Coolest Spring
1.) 1931 63.8°F
2.) 1915 65.9°F*
3.) 1926 65.97°F
4.) 1983 66.13°F*
5.) 1969 66.57°F
6.) 1952 66.93°F
7.) 1993 66.97°F
8.) 1924/1960 67.03°F
9.) 1937/1970 67.13°F
10.) 1932 67.17°F*
11.) 1941 67.20°F*
12.) 1913 67.23°F
13.) 1914 67.30°F
14.) 1901 67.40°F
15.) 1947 67.43°F^
16.) 1980 67.67°F
17.) 1903 67.73°F
18.) 1988 67.77°F
19.) 1906 67.80°F
20.) 1940/1987 67.83°F

* Denotes major hurricane making landfall.
^ Denotes hurricane making landfall.

Major Hurricanes
1915-Galveston Hurricane of 1915 (Category 3)
1932-Freeport Hurricane (Category 4)
1941-Hurricane #2 (Category 3 Based on Reanalysis)
1983-Alicia (Category 3)

Hurricanes
1947-Hurricane 3 (Category 1)

The 1915 Hurricane was a Category 4 at landfall and if it happened today it would about $70 billion in damages. It likely brought Category 3+ winds in Houston. The 1932 Hurricane was small, but very intense. Like the 1915 Hurricane, it brought Houston Category 3+ winds. Despite its small size, it managed to kill 40 people. The 1941 Hurricane strength is disputed. It is usually classified as Category 1 at landfall, but there were wind reports of 100 mph. One data suggest it was a Category 3 at landfall. Hurricane Alicia was a devastating hurricane that formed in a quiet season. It formed from a complex of thunderstorms from a unusual summer cold front. The 1915 and 1941 hurricanes were large, while 1932 hurricane was small. Alicia was medium size.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1941.asp
http://www.wxresearch.org/family/hurtex.htm

[Paul Robison]

The overnight guidance is in good agreement that a unseasonably strong front will march S across the Region Thursday. A cutoff upper low across the Mississippi River Valley will allow for cool Canadian air to filter well S into the weekend with a NW flow aloft. Near record minimum daytime highs appears likely Friday with temps struggling to reach the low to mid 60’s. Night time lows in the 40’s are possible early Friday and Saturday N of I-10 with the 50’s to the S. Rain chances appear to be a skinny line of showers and storms as the strong front moves through. In the extended range, warmer temps return next week as High pressure builds across the West and expands into the Plains.

Showers and storms? You mean like we had last Saturday when the sky turned black and the city flooded? Or like they experienced in Conroe yesterday?

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance is in good agreement that a unseasonably strong front will march S across the Region Thursday. A cutoff upper low across the Mississippi River Valley will allow for cool Canadian air to filter well S into the weekend with a NW flow aloft. Near record minimum daytime highs appears likely Friday with temps struggling to reach the low to mid 60’s. Night time lows in the 40’s are possible early Friday and Saturday N of I-10 with the 50’s to the S. Rain chances appear to be a skinny line of showers and storms as the strong front moves through. In the extended range, warmer temps return next week as High pressure builds across the West and expands into the Plains.

Showers and storms? You mean like we had last Saturday when the sky turned black and the city flooded? Or like they experienced in Conroe yesterday?

Not much chance of any showers or storms in SE Texas with a NW flow aloft behind the upper low that passed by yesterday. There is a chance that parts of Central Texas could see strong storms tonight where the SPC has a Slight Risk outlined. Cold NW breezes and temps in the 60's across areas N of I-10 tomorrow and night time lows in the low to mid 40's early Friday and maybe Saturday. A dry NW flow aloft should make for a pleasant weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Powerful late season cold front will arrive on Thursday resulting in potentially record setting cold on Friday and Saturday.

Very cold Canadian air mass for this time of year is surging down the plains this morning and will reach TX this evening and move off the TX coast Thursday afternoon. Today will feature warm and humid conditions ahead of this front with highs in the low to mid 80’s under weak south winds. The upper level low responsible for the scattered storms on Wednesday has moved into LA this morning with a drier and subsident air mass in place across SE TX. Would not rule out an isolated shower or storm east of I-45 today…but the key word is isolated.

Strong front will reach our NW counties by sunrise and push off the coast by mid afternoon. High temperatures will be ahead of this boundary in the low to mid 70’s with a quick fall into the 60’s and possibly 50’s under gusty north winds. Chances for rain look marginal as best dynamics are well north of the region and drying on the backside of the LA upper level low is reducing the moisture profile. Winds also shift to the N prior to the front reaching the area which reduced surface convergence. Expect a thin line of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm along the boundary.

Cold air mass surges into the region Thursday night with lows Friday morning in the mid 40’s. Low temperature records are in the upper 40’s and it appears that these will be broken. A few all-time monthly low temperature records look in jeopardy also either Friday or Saturday mornings. Highs on Friday will struggle to reach 70 degrees under conditions cold air advection. Lows Saturday morning may be cooler in the lower 40’s with clear skies and light winds.

Slow warm up begins Sunday with winds only slowly turning back off the Gulf by early to mid next week. Unseasonable cool and dry for early May

[Texas Pirate]

DOES anyone know the sst for our side of the GOM?

Cuz I think by the time it truly warms up, with all our cold fronts,
it will be Christmas.

[unome]

you can find SST maps here

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... index.html

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... ields.html


ocean heat content here

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ohc.html

[Paul Robison]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Powerful late season cold front will arrive on Thursday resulting in potentially record setting cold on Friday and Saturday.

Very cold Canadian air mass for this time of year is surging down the plains this morning and will reach TX this evening and move off the TX coast Thursday afternoon. Today will feature warm and humid conditions ahead of this front with highs in the low to mid 80’s under weak south winds. The upper level low responsible for the scattered storms on Wednesday has moved into LA this morning with a drier and subsident air mass in place across SE TX. Would not rule out an isolated shower or storm east of I-45 today…but the key word is isolated.

Strong front will reach our NW counties by sunrise and push off the coast by mid afternoon. High temperatures will be ahead of this boundary in the low to mid 70’s with a quick fall into the 60’s and possibly 50’s under gusty north winds. Chances for rain look marginal as best dynamics are well north of the region and drying on the backside of the LA upper level low is reducing the moisture profile. Winds also shift to the N prior to the front reaching the area which reduced surface convergence. Expect a thin line of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm along the boundary.

Cold air mass surges into the region Thursday night with lows Friday morning in the mid 40’s. Low temperature records are in the upper 40’s and it appears that these will be broken. A few all-time monthly low temperature records look in jeopardy also either Friday or Saturday mornings. Highs on Friday will struggle to reach 70 degrees under conditions cold air advection. Lows Saturday morning may be cooler in the lower 40’s with clear skies and light winds.

Slow warm up begins Sunday with winds only slowly turning back off the Gulf by early to mid next week. Unseasonable cool and dry for early May

How 'bout these "gusty north winds," Jeff. Are gusts from tropical storm force (40-60 mph) and hurricane force (75+) likely postfrontal?

[Texas Pirate]

Thanks UNOME but can you tell me what 20/21 Celsius is in real life?
Thanks. Looks cold anyway.

[Paul Robison]

Dear Anybody:

Here's why I'm worried about these "strong gusty" winds:

HGX says:

THERE ARE A FEW IMPACTS THAT WILL BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FIRST...A WIND ADVISORY MAY
LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT FOR THURSDAY. NAM12 WINDS AT 925 MB
WERE APPROACHING 50 KNOTS AND THESE ALONE SUPPORT THE MAV GUIDANCE
OF 25 TO 35 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR THE
MARINE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

I don't know, but that sounds like we're in for some pretty punishing winds to me. As I asked earlier; any hurricane/tropical storm-like damage likely from these winds?

[Ptarmigan]

I ran a statistical analysis of March and April and March to April Temperatures from 1895 to 2012 for the Upper Texas Coast. Spring is from March to May. Here is the outcome. The correlation is two-tailed.

March
Tropical Storm
r = -0.03
p = 0.78

Hurricane
r = 0.06
p = 0.53

Major Hurricane
r = -0.15
p = 0.10

Total Tropical Cyclone Landfall
r = -0.05
p = 0.59

Not much of a significant correlation between March temperatures and landfalls. The strongest being major hurricanes.

April
Tropical Storm
r = -0.14
p = 0.13

Hurricane
r = 0.05
p = 0.60

Major Hurricane
r = -0.19
p = 0.04

Total Tropical Cyclone Landfall
r = -0.15
p = 0.10

There is a significant correlation between April temperatures and major hurricanes making landfall in the hurricane season. The p-value is below 0.05. The cooler April is, the more chance we could see a major hurricane making landfall. There is also a correlation with tropical systems making landfall following a cooler than normal April.

March to April
Tropical Storm
r = -0.10
p = 0.30

Hurricane
r = 0.07
p = 0.44

Major Hurricane
r = -0.22
p = 0.01

Total Tropical Cyclone Landfall
r = -0.12
p = 0.19

Again, there is a significant correlation between April temperatures and major hurricanes making landfall in the hurricane season. The p-value is below 0.05. The cooler March to April is, the more chance we could see a major hurricane making landfall. There is also a correlation with tropical systems making landfall following a cooler than normal March to April.

Top 20 Coolest March In Upper Texas Coast
1.) 1915 53.7°F*
2.) 1969 55.8°F
3.) 1931 56.4°F
4.) 1941 56.8°F*
5.) 1947 57.0°F^
6.) 1960 57.1°F
7.) 1996 57.6°F
8.) 1932 57.7°F*
9.) 1965 58.0°F
10.) 1937 58.1°F
11.) 1958 58.3°F
12.) 1970 58.4°F
13.) 1968 58.5°F
14.) 2001 58.6°F
15.) 1912 58.8°F
16.) 1906/2010 59.0°F
17.) 1924/1926 59.1°F
18.) 1930/1978 59.2°F
19.) 1914/1962 59.3°F
20.) 1983 59.7°F*

* Denotes major hurricane making landfall.
^ Denotes hurricane making landfall.

Major Hurricanes
1915-Galveston Hurricane of 1915 (Category 3)
1932-Freeport Hurricane (Category 4)
1941-Hurricane #2 (Category 3 Based on Reanalysis)
1983-Alicia (Category 3)

Hurricanes
1947-Hurricane #3 (Category 1)

Top 20 Coolest April In Upper Texas Coast
1.) 1931 64.0°F
2.) 1983 65.0°F*
3.) 1898/1997 65.1°F
4.) 1901/1926 65.3°F
5.) 1973 65.4°F
6.) 1928 65.5°F
7.) 1936/1952 65.9°F
8.) 1980 66.0°F
9.) 1993 66.1°F
10.) 1949 66.5°F*
11.) 1899/1959^/2007^ 66.6°F
12.) 1913/1961* 66.7°F
13.) 1916/1987 66.9°F
14.) 1897 67.0°F
15.) 1940 67.2°F^
16.) 1907 67.3°F
17.) 1915 67.4°F*
18.) 1996 67.5°F
19.) 1938^/1951 67.6°F
20.) 1937/1998 67.7°F

* Denotes major hurricane making landfall.
^ Denotes hurricane making landfall.

Major Hurricanes
1915-Galveston Hurricane of 1915 (Category 3)
1932-Freeport Hurricane (Category 4)
1941-Hurricane #2 (Category 3 Based on Reanalysis)
1949-Hurricane #10 (Category 4)
1961-Carla (Category 4)
1983-Alicia (Category 3)

Hurricanes
1938-Hurricane #3 (Category 2)
1940-Hurricane #2 (Category 2)
1959-Debra (Category 1)
2007-Humberto (Category 1)

The 1949 Hurricane and Carla made landfall as Category 3+ following a cool April. Same goes with non-major Debra and Humberto.

Top 20 Coolest March to April In Upper Texas Coast
1.) 1931 60.20°F
2.) 1915 60.55°F*
3.) 1926 62.20°F
4.) 1983 62.35°F*
5.) 1996 62.55°F
6.) 1969 62.75°F
7.) 1937 62.90°F
8.) 1941 63.05°F*
9.) 1932 63.30°F*
10.) 1947 63.35°F^
11.) 1952/1987 63.45°F
12.) 1980 63.55°F
13.) 1960 63.65°F
14.) 1913/1959^ 63.70°F
15.) 1901/1914 63.75°F
16.) 2010 63.85°F
17.) 1958/1962/1993 63.90°F
18.) 1906 63.95°F
19.) 1978 64.00°F
20.) 1924 64.10°F

* Denotes major hurricane making landfall.
^ Denotes hurricane making landfall.

Major Hurricanes
1915-Galveston Hurricane of 1915 (Category 3)
1932-Freeport Hurricane (Category 4)
1941-Hurricane #2 (Category 3 Based on Reanalysis)
1983-Alicia (Category 3)

Hurricanes
1947-Hurricane #3 (Category 1)
1959-Debra (Category 1)

[Texas Pirate]

Someone was asking about the winds for this coming cold front:

956 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT
THURSDAY.

* EVENT...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AROUND 1 PM AND THEN INCREASE IN THE EASTERN ZONES
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 4 PM.

* IMPACT...STRONG CROSS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EAST WEST
ORIENTED ROADWAYS.

[Paul Robison]

Someone was asking about the winds for this coming cold front:

956 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT
THURSDAY.

* EVENT...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AROUND 1 PM AND THEN INCREASE IN THE EASTERN ZONES
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 4 PM.

* IMPACT...STRONG CROSS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EAST WEST
ORIENTED ROADWAYS.

That was me. Should Houstonians prepare for Ike-like conditions? Widespread power outages?

[ejburas]

Someone was asking about the winds for this coming cold front:

956 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT
THURSDAY.

* EVENT...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AROUND 1 PM AND THEN INCREASE IN THE EASTERN ZONES
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 4 PM.

* IMPACT...STRONG CROSS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EAST WEST
ORIENTED ROADWAYS.

That was me. Should Houstonians prepare for Ike-like conditions? Widespread power outages?

A far cry from Ike...not even in the same ballpark...

[tireman4]

You can track the front here. It is making its way here steadily....

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Powerful late season cold front will sweep across the area today brining strong winds and cold temperatures.

At 800am the cold front is nearing the College Station area and moving SE at 25-35mph. Radar shows no showers or thunderstorms along the front as most of SE TX lies on the western flank of the large upper level storm over LA/MS under its subsidence and drying. Low level winds have turned out of the N ahead of the boundary reducing surface convergence along the boundary. It is still possible especially with a little heating this morning that a few showers may develop along or behind the boundary.

Bigger story will be the incoming cold air and very strong winds. Winds will increase into the 25-35mph range post front with gust to 40-45mph this afternoon and evening as strong old air advection overspreads the region. Upstream cold air lags the boundary by about 50-100 miles and then temperatures tank into the 40’s over N TX with a rare overnight May snow over the panhandle and OK. Pressure gradient remains strong through the overnight hours and the wind advisory will run from 100pm until 1000pm tonight and may be extended.

The other story will be the temperatures as a fairly significant chunk of cold air slides down the plains and into TX. Both highs and lows will run 15-25 degrees below early May averages and record lows look to fall possibly both Friday and Saturday mornings. Could even see all-time monthly May low temperatures records fall at some sites. Interestingly, the last time a May low temperature record was established at BUSH IAH was 1984.

Lows on Friday morning will be in the low to mid 40’s and on Saturday morning the upper 30’s NW to the low to mid 40’s elsewhere.

Slow warming trend into early next week with no rain in the forecast

[Ptarmigan]

Someone was asking about the winds for this coming cold front:

956 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT
THURSDAY.

* EVENT...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AROUND 1 PM AND THEN INCREASE IN THE EASTERN ZONES
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 4 PM.

* IMPACT...STRONG CROSS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EAST WEST
ORIENTED ROADWAYS.

That was me. Should Houstonians prepare for Ike-like conditions? Widespread power outages?

Ike had sustained tropical storm to hurricane force winds for hours. This front is not comparable to Ike. The winds from the front are gusts equivalent to tropical storm. The sustained winds are less. Power outages would be limited, not widespread.

[Paul Robison]

Someone was asking about the winds for this coming cold front:

956 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT
THURSDAY.

* EVENT...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AROUND 1 PM AND THEN INCREASE IN THE EASTERN ZONES
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 4 PM.

* IMPACT...STRONG CROSS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EAST WEST
ORIENTED ROADWAYS.

That was me. Should Houstonians prepare for Ike-like conditions? Widespread power outages?

Ike had sustained tropical storm to hurricane force winds for hours. This front is not comparable to Ike. The winds from the front are gusts equivalent to tropical storm. The sustained winds are less. Power outages would be limited, not widespread.

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

hgx wind advisory:
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS MIGHT EVEN BE A LITTLE
HIGHER NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45.

TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-030015-
/O.EXT.KHGX.WI.Y.0009.130502T1615Z-130503T0900Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...
HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
1115 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2013

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* EVENT...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...STRONG CROSS WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EAST WEST
ORIENTED ROADWAYS. [SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

I am not familiar with the locations called "NEAR THE COAST AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45." I am on the southwest side of town toward Sugarland. Is my power outage risk higher or lower in that location?