EPAC Season 2013 Discussions: Gil Weakening/TD 8E Forms

[srainhoutx]

Over the past couple of days, the Globals have been fairly consistent in developing tropical cyclone in the EPAC. The GFS and Euro both suggest a general NW to NNW motion with the Euro hinting a possible approach to Cabo San Lucas in about 8-10 days.

[srainhoutx]

The globals and ensemble guidance have been very insistent the a storm would develop in this region of the EPAC for the last several days.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[srainhoutx]

Two lemons in the EPAC this morning...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 900 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

Dual tropical cyclones in the EPAC? It is becoming a bit more likely as 95E has been designated W of 94E:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Depression 3 E has formed in the EPAC. This is a very large circulation and will likely provide some very photogenic shots as it safely travels W affecting no land.

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[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT.
IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED AN ALMOST-CLOSED
EYEWALL WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KT. BASED ON
ALL OF THE ABOVE...COSME IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

COSME HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH
A 12-HOUR MOTION OF 305/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. AFTER THAT TIME...COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT WEAKENS. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS PARALLEL TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THE NEW TRACK LIES NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THAN NORMAL.

COSME IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK HAS IT REACHING 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLWED BY STEADY
WEAKENING OVER DECREASING SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36 HOURS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT
72 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96
HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY
THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL
FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.7N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.9N 114.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 19.6N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 21.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

96E has been designated SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. We are beginning to see the benefits for TC Genesis from a favorable MJO pulse heading E of the dateline as well as a progressing Kelvin wave.

[srainhoutx]

TS Dalila is looking much more organized this morning. It may reach Hurricane status tomorrow before turning NW and heading out to sea.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Depression 5E has formed 260 miles SSE of Acapulco, MX.

[srainhoutx]

A new Lemon SSW of Acapulco has been tagged 98E. SHIPS takes it to a 'cane generally heading WNW.

[TexasBreeze]

With TS Flossie getting ready to pass through the Hawaiian islands, I was wondering about the frequency of east Pac storms hitting the islands and have any ever made it all the way to west Pac? Ptarmigan?:)

[Ptarmigan]

With TS Flossie getting ready to pass through the Hawaiian islands, I was wondering about the frequency of east Pac storms hitting the islands and have any ever made it all the way to west Pac? Ptarmigan?:)

Hawaii has been hit by East Pacific Storms. The last East Pacific storm was Jimena in 2003. Usually remnants hit Hawaii.

If you are talking about East/Central Pacific Storms crossing over to the West Pacific, that has happened.

Storms That Entered West Pacific From Central/East Pacific
Patsy (1959)
Virginia (1968) Formed In West Pacific and Crossed Into Central Pacific
Carmen (1980)
Skip (1985)
Georgette (1986)
Enrique (1991)
John (1994)
Li (1994)
Paka (1997)
Dora (1999)
Jimena (2003)
Ioke (2006)

East Pacific
Georgette (1986)
Enrique (1991)
Li (1994)
John (1994)
Dora (1999)
Jimena (2003)

Hurricane John is the longest lived tropical cyclone. It lasted for 31 days and has a life time ACE total of 70.6.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hawaii_hurricanes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pa ... rn_Pacific
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_(1994)

[srainhoutx]

99E continues to organize well offshore of the Pacific coast of Mexico and the NCEP Ensemble TS Genesis Probabilities are increasing with a potential developing cyclone SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a favorable MJO pulse moves E across the Pacific.

[TexasBreeze]

With TS Flossie getting ready to pass through the Hawaiian islands, I was wondering about the frequency of east Pac storms hitting the islands and have any ever made it all the way to west Pac? Ptarmigan?:)

Hawaii has been hit by East Pacific Storms. The last East Pacific storm was Jimena in 2003. Usually remnants hit Hawaii.

If you are talking about East/Central Pacific Storms crossing over to the West Pacific, that has happened.

Storms That Entered West Pacific From Central/East Pacific
Patsy (1959)
Virginia (1968) Formed In West Pacific and Crossed Into Central Pacific
Carmen (1980)
Skip (1985)
Georgette (1986)
Enrique (1991)
John (1994)
Li (1994)
Paka (1997)
Dora (1999)
Jimena (2003)
Ioke (2006)

East Pacific
Georgette (1986)
Enrique (1991)
Li (1994)
John (1994)
Dora (1999)
Jimena (2003)

Hurricane John is the longest lived tropical cyclone. It lasted for 31 days and has a life time ACE total of 70.6.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hawaii_hurricanes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pa ... rn_Pacific
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_(1994)

Thanks for the reply! That happens more than I thought.

The E Pac train is beginning! Another orange 40 south of Baha.