June: Record June High Temps Across Texas!

[srainhoutx]

Warm core rain event unfolded overnight where 9.5 Inches of tropical rains fell in the Eagle Pass area. The Rio Grande River is expected to reach flood stages that have not been seen is the July 1976 flood event. Two day totals in some locations are nearing the 10 to 15 inch amounts with some isolated higher totals across The Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande River.

The Eagle Pass mayor is saying the town has received 12-15 inches of rain. Numerous water rescues and evacuations ongoing. Quite an amazing warm-core nocturnal event. Reminds me of what TS Charley did to Del Rio in 1998.

Thank you for that update, Portastorm. Just saw a report from a co op observer 3 miles NNE of Eagle Pass reporting 16.65 inches in the past 30 hours. 10 inches reported at that location in the past 24 hours.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis regarding the flooding event across Western S Central Texas:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/15/13 1506Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1445Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE LARGER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST S OF THE US/MEXICO BORDER HAVE BEEN WARMING,
LATEST IR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST HOUR HAS SHOWN SOME RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD
TOPS IN A SMALL AREA OVER KINNEY COUNTY. HAVE NOTED SOME MID-LEVEL
DRYING ON BOTH WV IMAGERY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS BUT BLENDED PW ANALYSIS
STILL INDICATES ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EXTENDING N THROUGH CNTRL TX WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED
RAINFALL RATES OF 1.0-2.0"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION.
.
LATEST WV AND VIS IMAGERY ARE SHOWING A NUMBER OF CIRCULATIONS EVIDENT
WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE OVER TX TO LOCALLY ENHANCE
MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK MCV CIRCULATION JUST
W OF MAVERICK COUNTY. AT THE SURFACE IT APPEARS AS THOUGH CONVECTION
WAS OCCURRING JUST E OF INVERTED TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS UP JUST S OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-1800Z..MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH PATTERN IS NOT AS FAVORABLE TODAY
AS IT WAS YESTERDAY FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL, STILL BELIEVE THAT
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE ONGOING CONDITIONS.
GOES SOUNDER IS SHOWING DESTABLIZATION OCCURRING JUST UPSTREAM OF CIRRUS
CANOPY FROM DECAYING MCS AND HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME INCREASING CU FROM
SCHLEICHER COUNTY EXTENDING SW TO S OF THE BORDER WHICH MAY HELP TO SHIFT
ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT A LITTLE FURTHER W ON THE SHORT TERM.
MOST RECENT IMAGE JUST IN AND HAVE SEEN SOME CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER
KINNEY COUNTY WHICH SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED AROUND
0.50"/HR AT LEAST ON THE SHORT TERM.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...24 AND 36 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH 
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...LATEST 36 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

...LOCATION...                             ...TIME...      ...AMT...
EAGLE PASS (MAVERICK TX)                   900 AM JUN 15    17.05 IN
3 NNE EAGLE PASS (MAVERICK TX)             700 AM JUN 15    16.65 IN

...LATEST 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

...LOCATION...                             ...TIME...      ...AMT...
EAGLE PASS (MAVERICK TX)                   900 AM JUN 15    15.17 IN
3 NNE EAGLE PASS (MAVERICK TX)             700 AM JUN 15    10.00 IN
BRACKETTVILLE (KINNEY TX)                  900 AM JUN 15     6.50 IN
5 W BRACKETTVILLE (KINNEY TX)              700 AM JUN 15     5.84 IN
3 NNE CARRIZO SPRINGS (DIMMIT TX)          700 AM JUN 15     4.65 IN
CRYSTAL CITY (ZAVALA TX)                   900 AM JUN 15     4.30 IN
SPOFFORD (KINNEY TX) (COCORAHS)            815 AM JUN 15     4.25 IN
7 ENE BARKSDALE (REAL TX) (COCORAHS)       700 AM JUN 15     3.85 IN
CARRIZO SPRINGS (DIMMIT TX) (COOP)         700 AM JUN 15     3.72 IN
14 NNW ALAMO VILLAGE (KINNEY TX) (RAWS)    900 AM JUN 15     3.61 IN
12 NE ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX) (LCRA)      925 AM JUN 15     3.18 IN
16 E CARTA VALLEY (EDWARDS TX)             808 AM JUN 15     3.04 IN
17 E CARTA VALLEY (EDWARDS TX)             800 AM JUN 15     3.04 IN
9 ESE ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX)             700 AM JUN 15     2.91 IN
5 NW REAGAN WELLS (UVALDE TX)              800 AM JUN 15     2.86 IN
6 NNE ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX)             700 AM JUN 15     2.85 IN
ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX) (COOP)            700 AM JUN 15     2.80 IN
9 WSW ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX)             700 AM JUN 15     2.47 IN
26 N BRACKETTVILLE (KINNEY TX) (COOP)      800 AM JUN 15     2.30 IN
14 NW LEAKEY (REAL TX) (COCORAHS)          800 AM JUN 15     2.25 IN
5 NW ROCKSPRINGS (EDWARDS TX)              800 AM JUN 15     2.20 IN


OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. NOT ALL DATA LISTED IS CONSIDERED OFFICIAL. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS ITS PRIVATE AND PUBLIC PARTNERS FOR
PROVIDING US WITH THIS DATA.

[Ptarmigan]

They got quite a rain event in Eagle Pass.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
941 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TXZ200-213-214-238-162000-
LIBERTY-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
941 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FOR THE FORMATION OF SHORT
LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS. ALBEIT RARE...A FUNNEL CLOUD CAN EXTEND TO
THE SURFACE TO BECOME A WEAK TORNADO. PLEASE REPORT ANY FUNNEL
CLOUD TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT WHO WILL THEN RELY THIS INFORMATION
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

[Rip76]

What the heck?

Where did this come from?

[srainhoutx]

Even with 93L, other than the BoC, I'm not watching the Gulf this weekend.

I'm watching the hell death heat ridge center just North of here.

Over rate and much hyped. I see a NW flow in the short term with storms dropping SE before the Caribbean and the Gulf open up. The GFS operational and ensembles suggest a nice surge of deep tropical moisture developing toward for the last half of June into early July. Sea breeze will kick in again before we know it...

[TexasBreeze]

I sure hope so! I enjoy watching and experiencing the daily storms in summer that cool things somewhat!:)

[srainhoutx]

Isolated seabreeze shower/storms that are widely scattered are possible today. Tomorrow may offer better chances as outflow from storm developing across N Central Texas march SE toward Central/SE Texas with a NW flow aloft. Eyes then turn to the Bay of Campeche where 93L may develop into a tropical depression/tropical storm, but the moisture from that tropical disturbance will remain S of the Texas Coast until later this week. There are indications that deep tropical moisture will begin to move N toward the Texas Coast by the coming weekend as generally lower pressures develop across the Western Gulf and long fetch deep tropical moisture stream NW from the Caribbean. The upper ridge does appear to weaken and loose its grip over Texas and the longer range reliable models are suggesting that low pressure may develop across the Central Gulf and move W to WNW beneath a SE US Ridge the last week of June. For information regarding 93L in the NW Caribbean, follow our updates in our Hurricane Central Section…

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1838

[srainhoutx]

Isolated widely scattered showers are developing along the Coastal Counties. There is a left over outflow boundary to our N and NE from the morning storms that crossed the Dallas/Ft Worth area. The general motion of these developing very scattered showers in ENE with a weak SW flow. Rain chances appear to increase slightly tomorrow as that boundary drifts a bit closer and acts as a focal point in developing showers and storms mainly across our N and NE areas.

[brooksgarner]

Interesting to see the latest visible satellite loop: The southward-progressing outflow boundary over NE Texas has pretty much died out before reaching our area, though it still has some penetration power for NW Louisiana, closer to the base of the dying MCV. Our low-level SW flow is simply overwhelming the boundary's progression southeast. It'll be interesting to see if convection does indeed, set up later today. I'm a little surprised it was halted so quickly as the air was so much more dense relative to our buoyant, tropical profiles in the Houston area... It must reflect the strength of the subtropical ridge.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/flash-vis.html

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff

Upper level ridge which built over the region late last week is slowly breaking down again while short wave energy and a slow moving diffuse cool front approach from the W and NW this morning.

Large thunderstorm complex which began over W TX yesterday evening is nearing our NW counties currently. Storms have shown a gradual weakening trend as is common for this time of the day. Outflow boundary along the leading edge of this activity should be moving into our NW counties within the next hour with the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. With the ridge aloft having weakened some since yesterday, think activity to our NW will have a better chance of moving into the region this morning and outflow boundaries/seabreeze developing storms this afternoon. Pooled moisture will be greatest over our northern set of counties and this is also where the influences from the high pressure over the northern Gulf will be the weakest so the best rain chances will be in those areas and this is supported by the HRRR rapid refresh guidance. South of HWY 105 storms will likely be more isolated in nature although the collision of the seabreeze and outflow boundaries from the north may happen between HWY 105 and US 59 this afternoon yielding better storm formation than currently expected. Will go with 50% north of HWY 105 today and 30-40% elsewhere across the area.

Looks like a somewhat similar pattern on Wednesday with additional energy dropping SE in the NW flow aloft, but guidance is not suggesting a big overnight thunderstorm complex out W tonight which leaves only boundaries from today and the seabreeze to get things going on Wednesday.

Ridge begins to build back over the region on Thursday and will likely remain in control through Saturday with rain chances decreasing. Tropical depression #2 currently over central America and SE MX will remain far south of this area due to strong ridging over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Longer range continues to feature a potential pattern change as a weakness or inverted trough develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on the underside (south side) of high pressure over the southern US by late this weekend. This trough moves west in the easterly steering flow on the south side of the ridge and looks to allow a good surge of tropical moisture into the region by Sunday and Monday. This may support increased rain chances by Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

The 11Z HRRR is a bit more hopeful for bringing a bit of relief from the heat today with scattered showers/storms developing along colliding boundaries to the N and the seabreeze to the S.

[Ptarmigan]

It was quite hot up in Alaska. They had record highs.

NOAK48 PAFC 180614 AAA
PNSAFC

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1010 PM AKDT MON JUN 17 2013

...ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FALL AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA...

A EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IS CONTINUING
THE STRING OF UNUSUALLY HOT DAYS. TEMPERATURES AT MANY LOCATIONS WERE
IN THE 80S TO MID 90S.

THE FOLLOWING STATIONS SET ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY:

TALKEETNA....96 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 91 SET ON JUNE 16
2013...JUNE 14 1969...AND JUNE 26 1953.
CORDOVA......90 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 89 SET ON JULY 16 1995.
VALDEZ.......90 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 87 SET ON JUNE 26 1953
AND JUNE 25 1953.
SEWARD.......88 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 87 SET ON JULY 4 1999.

THE VALDEZ TEMPERATURE WAS RECORDED IN THE CITY OF VALDEZ. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT THE AIRPORT WAS 84 DEGREES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY BUT WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.

MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR SELECT SITES IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MAY
BE FOUND AT PAFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE.PHP

...UPDATE OF TALKEETNA HIGH TEMPERATURE...


$$
SNIDER/LUDWIG

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/pubfcst.php?fcst=NOAK48PAFC

[Portastorm]

Nice little mesoscale system which formed last night out in west Texas rolled through the Austin metro area early this morning, around dawn. Rainfall totals anywhere from a tenth of an inch to almost an inch of rain. Always nice to have that 20% chance of rain verify in mid June.

[srainhoutx]

The MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) currently near the Dallas/FT Worth area is slowly spinning and moving to the E in a zonal flow. Storms are beginning to take shape from NW of the Austin area on SE toward SE Texas and eastern Louisiana. The outflow boundary from last night storms that moved through Central Texas early this morning is now located along our Coastal Counties. As the seabreeze begins to move inland look for increasing storms chances from the College Station area on S toward Matagorda Bay and further E.



The 12Z suite of guidance is indicating a upper trough/low will traverse the Gulf next week from E to W increasing our chances of rain once again. The upper ridge that has been in place appears to shift W allowing for deep tropical moisture to pool and move NW from the Caribbean. In the longer range, the global and ensemble guidance paint an unsettled pattern with generally lower pressures across the Western Gulf and the potential for some tropical mischief as we near the early July timeframe.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

TXZ164-177>179-199-200-182115-
TRINITY TX-POLK TX-WALKER TX-LIBERTY TX-SAN JACINTO TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
317 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TRINITY...POLK...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...NORTHERN LIBERTY...SAN JACINTO AND CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 313 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAVY CROCKETT NATIONAL
FOREST AREA TO NORTH OF THE WILLIS AREA...AND MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...CLEVELAND...LIVINGSTON...WILLIS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...
SHEPHERD...CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CUT AND SHOOT...NEW WAVERLY...
COLDSPRING...MONTGOMERY...POINT BLANK...NORTH CLEVELAND...GOODRICH
AND SEVEN OAKS.

[jasons2k]

It's been a little frustrating. Cells keep wanting to form over my house, but they move off to the north east before they get going. Been watching the storms move-in from the west/NW hoping for more action there.

Both complexes have now spit out outflows, and they are both about to collide right over me along the I-45 corridor. This *should* mean an explosion of new storms just to my west...but as history shows, it may mean I'm just going to get skipped by antoher broken line. We'll see...

[jasons2k]

Looks like Central & Southern Harris is getting some new cells. Storms that were moving-in from the NW are falling apart. Why do I get this sinking feeling there will be another void of nothing in SC Montgomery county & NC Harris? It's like the area bounded by IAH, Hooks, and Conroe Airport is no-man's land - inside that little triangle is a desert of drought.

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Liberty County