June: Record June High Temps Across Texas!

[Texas Pirate]

Got an inch by the bay yesterday. LIfe is good and so is my lawn.

[TexasBreeze]

Nope cant complain here either. I saw rain too!:)
Theres more streamer showers forming to the south.

[jasons2k]

Another day of the same for me. The storms formed close enough to spit out an outflow and everything fell apart just as it approached my lawn.

[CAK]

Nice downpour in Kingwood! Yeah, happy lawn...after days of just getting missed!

[srainhoutx]

The upper ridge is winning out in the short term, but there continues to be ‘hints’ that the upper patter will change after the weekend into next week. A couple of features worth watching is the slowly advancing trough to the W and the upper ridge shifting N and E. There are also indications that nice tropical moisture plume will enter the Gulf from the Caribbean in the wake of TS Barry. Also the ensembles are suggesting an easterly wave or perhaps an upper trough translating W under the ridge across the Gulf next week. If that does develop, increasing showers and storms are possible as we head toward the end of June. Also rather noteworthy is what the longer range guidance is ‘sniffing’. It may be possible that an EPAC Hurricane develops next week increasing mid level moisture as the trough to our W taps into that feature. Looking further out into the beginning of July, there are indications that the tropics may become rather active as a wave moves into the Caribbean and eventually enters the Western Gulf. That is a long way out and likely another Topic, but something to monitor none the less. We will see.

[jasons2k]

That's it, stick a fork on me. Now the goal posts weren't just moved, they are gone. I missed any chances for rain the last week, and with the ridge parking overhead, it's gonna be no fun for the lawns and trees in my area. There are already some browning pine trees again along the Rayford Road corridor....just a sign of things to come, I fear.

[jasons2k]

I'm liking the position of the outflow at this time of day. It just might be in the right spot to fire some new storms closer to here at peak heating. I'm holding-out some hope for one last shot before it shuts down

[Rip76]

Looks like a little sea breeze action this morning.

[jeff]

indeed. Models picked up on this last week then dropped it out. Moisture surge today and tomorrow. I would probably go with 30% today and again on Monday before upper ridging takes a brief foothold. Toward the weekend the ridge may retreat far enough NW to allow NE upper level flow and and disturbances to ride SW at the region. This type of pattern has in the past supported a severe threat as MCS activity back SW in the heat of the afternoon/evening. This pattern has been largely absent the last few years with the ridge centered more over W TX and N TX forcing such a pattern off to our east.

[Katdaddy]

a few scattered tropical showers around this afternoon. I could use one.

[txflagwaver]

It's Hot

It's June in SE Texas.

It's Hot.

It may or may not rain briefly in the afternoon.

It's Hot.

[srainhoutx]

The guidance is indicating several features will be worth watching as we head toward the end of June. Currently there is a surge of tropical moisture is spreading into the SE Gulf and heading W beneath the Bermuda Ridge. That area of higher pw’s (around 2 inches) will approach the Central and Western Gulf as we head toward the end of the work week. The Upper Ridge does appear to lessen its grip over Texas as it shifts NW toward Utah and a rather unusually strong trough drops into the SE US this weekend. The models are ‘sniffing’ some convective development dropping S along the eastern flank of that western upper ridge during the coming weekend. As the area of increased deep tropical moisture spreads W in the Gulf, there is a fairly good chance we will see our rain chances increase as well. Mid week does look hot, but nothing like we haven’t seen already. Some of the global and ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest the tropics may become active across the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf in the early July time frame, but that will be for another Topic.

[srainhoutx]

I not too worried about a brief dry spell for late week. This appears very transient as the upper ridge retreats W from near Salt Lake City and may even shift a bit N into Canada. With a fairly deep 5H (upper low) spinning over the Ohio Valley and a stalled boundary across the Western Gulf Coast we tend to see an area of low pressure spin up increasing onshore flow. The guidance is suggesting convection dropping S in the northerly flow aloft along the E flank of the upper ridge from Canada into the Plains as the 5H low meanders and the trough across the Eastern half of the US drops rather far S to near the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. Deep tropical moisture will likely head NW from the Caribbean and pool across the Western Gulf on E. Eventually that increased tropical moisture will win out as the boundary further E retreats N. I’d still keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche just beyond the July 4th timeframe.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Little day to day variation in the weather through Saturday.

Upper level ridge over the four corners region will amplify and expand eastward across much of TX through Saturday bringing likely the hottest temperatures of 2013 to many areas of the state. The building ridge will effectively end rain chances which are already on the low side and mainly confined today to the coastal counties and those counties east of I-45 where moisture is greatest. Gusty S winds today will help mitigate a warming low levels under the increasing subsidence from the building ridge with most locations reaching the mid to upper 90’s. Recent dry streak (last week) and warm surface temperatures are helping to dry out the ground and brown vegetation and suspect this will begin to have an impact on afternoon high temperatures which have thus far been tempered by the decent ground moisture. As the ridge builds overhead Friday and Saturday expect areas west of I-45 to reach 100 or better and the City of Houston may be very close to 100 depending on what time the seabreeze front moves through. Areas that have not seen rainfall over the past 2 weeks could see 100’s as early as Thursday.

Good news is that nearly all the forecast models break down this ridging and retro-grade (move westward) the ridge axis on Sunday as an impressive deep trough develops over the Great Lakes into the east coast. SE TX and much of eastern TX will lie along the eastern flank of the western US upper level high and this will help to guide disturbances SSW to SW into the state from the NE starting late Sunday. Forecast soundings for Sunday afternoon show a moist air mass with good low level instability. Expect thunderstorm complexes to our NE to approach the region during the afternoon hours which could either move through the area or send strong outflow boundaries into the area. Such patterns tend to produce a severe weather risk. NNE to NE flow aloft will help to usher in a weak cold front to areas NE of the region on Monday and this will continue to be a favorable breeding ground for thunderstorm formation which will then track SSW to SW into our region during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday and possibly Tuesday.

Upper ridging then looks to build ENE from the western US into the center of the nation next week with the troughing pushing eastward. This pattern begins to open the Gulf of Mexico to deep SE flow into the state of Texas toward/around the 4th of July holiday. While we are talking very long ranges at this point (end of next week) there appears to be at least some potential for some tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico toward the first week of July. The GFS has been fairly supportive of this idea for several runs now and a couple of the other global models appear to be trending slightly in that direction also. While I rarely believe such solutions at such long time periods, the models did do very well with the formation potential for both Andrea and Barry up to two weeks out so they could be on to something. Additionally, the favorable phase of the MJO looks to be arriving into the Gulf of Mexico from the eastern Pacific about the first week of July which is correlated to an increased potential for tropical cyclone formation.

[wxman57]

I see the overnight run of the GFS has IAH up to 105 degrees on Saturday. Should be warm enough for a long bike ride, I think. Dew points down into the upper 50s by Tuesday with a cool high of 97.

[Ptarmigan]

I see the overnight run of the GFS has IAH up to 105 degrees on Saturday. Should be warm enough for a long bike ride, I think. Dew points down into the upper 50s by Tuesday with a cool high of 97.

If true, this would be the third June in a row to see 100 degree days since 2011. June 2012 had three 100 degree days. The highest being 105 on June 26th. Summer 2012 only saw three 100 degree days and all in June. June 2011 was very hot and saw its earliest 100 degree day on June 2nd. That was quite a hot summer right there! June 2010 was quite hot despite not hitting 100. It was mainly due to unusually warm low temperatures. Interesting to note since 2008, four of the hottest June's are in the top 10 hottest June on record. June 2008 was quite hot, the same year Hurricane Ike made landfall.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_june

June 2012
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... =12&max=61

June 2011
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... =24&max=61

June 2010
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... =36&max=61

[jasons2k]

Looks like I'm going to close June with 1.36" of rain, almost all of that back on June 2nd.

In May, I totaled only 0.58".

That's less than 2 inches in over 60 days, going well into April too.

I truly hope July is different.

[Texas Pirate]

I FOR ONE, love the Summer sluggin....
No complaints here.....at 100 we're just getting started.

And maybe rain with a name? I know it all goes to NOLA.

Y'all have a wonderful, safe 4th.

[jasons2k]

I don't mind the heat- summer is my favorite season - I just want it to rain. Once.

[Paul Robison]

Folks, I think the issue we need to adress right now is electricity----As in can we expect ERCOT to issue power alerts (maybe rolling outages, even) because of this coming weekend heat? Anyone have thoughts on that they'd like to share with me?