Paul Robison wrote:Folks, I think the issue we need to adress right now is electricity----As in can we expect ERCOT to issue power alerts (maybe rolling outages, even) because of this coming weekend heat? Anyone have thoughts on that they'd like to share with me?
It was over a 100F this time last year. So far so good...
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Upper level ridge will exert its full force on the region over the next 48 hours with widespread 100 degree temperatures likely.
Mean position of the upper level high over the SW US with its extension eastward across TX this morning. Compressional heating continues under this dome as the air generally sinks with a corresponding increase in mid level temperatures. College Station 100 yesterday and it looks like most areas will be at or above 100 degrees today. Seabreeze arrived along US 59 about 500-530pm yesterday or right near max heating in the City of Houston which did not help temper the afternoon highs.
Friday will be another very warm day, but Saturday looks the warmest as a weak front drops southward into N TX allowing the air mass south of the boundary to really heat up. Low level winds have a more SW to WSW component on Saturday versus the SE component off the Gulf and this usually means very hot conditions. Will go with mid 100’s Saturday west of I-45 and 100-103 across Houston and the interior coastal counties. Beaches should be tempered in the upper 90’s, but should winds be more W than SW some of the hot inland air will spread back onto the coast and 100 at the beaches would be possible.
As mentioned, a weak frontal boundary will be dropping through N TX on Saturday as the upper high retro-grades (moves westward) allowing increasing northerly flow aloft over the eastern half of TX. Super heated air mass on Saturday could result in an isolated strong thunderstorm especially from College Station to Livingston by late afternoon, but moisture is lacking so think the coverage will be on the low side. Boundary sinks southward on Sunday and as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 90’s expect a few additional storms to develop along/near the boundary. Soundings suggest an inverted V profile or layer of dry air below the thunderstorm bases which supports strong outflow winds and a damaging wind threat. Overall moisture is again on the low side so do not think there will be much coverage of storms, but the ones that do develop could be strong to severe.
Looks like the boundary may in fact slip off the coast or outflow boundaries allowing drier air to filter into the area for early next week. This will allow overnight lows to fall off some, but keeps afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90’s as the dry air heats up quickly.
4th of July and beyond:
Models are coming into agreement that the unusually deep trough over the eastern portion of the nation early next week will begin to back westward and could be over or just west of E TX by next Thursday. Tremendous tropical moisture over the Gulf of Mexico at this point (PWS at or above 2.0 inches) looks to advance on the coast by the afternoon of the 4th suggesting a fairly active seabreeze. With this trough axis possibly getting just west of the area by the 5th, moisture levels soar and rain chances will be on the rise. In fact the period from the 4th -7th of July is starting to look fairly wet.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
The first in a couple of frontal boundaries is sagging S this morning across N Texas. Some debris clouds from a convective complex that originated in Kansas and moved ESE are moving across SE Texas this morning, but should burn off as the morning progresses. The first ‘cool front’ should arrive later this evening with a secondary slightly stronger ‘cool front’ arriving Sunday. There is a chance of isolated showers/storms on Sunday across our northern areas. Make sure to hydrate the next couple of days.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
hey redneck you have no right to tell anyone to shut up. your not a moderator or an administrator. let them deal with it and you stay out of it. paul robison has every right to speak his mind on this forum so long as he doesnt break any of khou's rules and terms which he didnt. butt out
Paul Robison wrote:Which parts of Houston will be at highest risk for strong thunderstorms Sat. afternoon/evening?
For Saturday afternoon/evening it appears areas from Central Texas down to the Middle Texas Coast or to our SW may have the better chances of seeing showers/storms as a short wave drops S to our W.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
no i will not shut up redneck . you have no right to tell anyone that. no one here has broken any of the forum rules. paul robison has every right to ask any question he wants as long as it is within the forum guidelines. you are not a moderator and you are not an administrator so butt out. srain do something about this guy.
Dang Roberto, you are a thin skinned bro. My shut up to Paul was tongue in cheek and he knows why...and you should too. Go for a swim today home boy, everything will be alright.
redneckweather wrote:Roberto, do you keep up with Paul's posts? Obviously not or you would know where I am coming from. Now you shut up too and enjoy your day.
I want to here more about his girlfriend and weather balloons, and how any 20% chance of afternoon t-storms could mean Governor Perry touring the devastation in Houston by helicopter.
But that's me.
That would be nice!! Just got off the tractor and am covered in a heavy layer of dust! Everything was nice and green just a week and half ago...now I'm gonna have to throw the sprinkler out this evening for the first time this year. The grass is starting to brown up in spots! A 15 minute soaker would be great later on.
Any word on the rain possibilities from the 4th on?
The pattern today/tomorrow is more similar to what I used to experience up in North Central Texas. Rain chances are low, but a few things that are typical are: a) the 100+ heat creates such instability that the weakest front or outflow can trigger storms to fire and b) the severe threat is real. The extreme instability & dry air can create some intense updrafts causing large hail and strong downburst winds. Just something to keep an eye out for.
jasons wrote:The pattern today/tomorrow is more similar to what I used to experience up in North Central Texas. Rain chances are low, but a few things that are typical are: a) the 100+ heat creates such instability that the weakest front or outflow can trigger storms to fire and b) the severe threat is real. The extreme instability & dry air can create some intense updrafts causing large hail and strong downburst winds. Just something to keep an eye out for.
If and that's a big IF...we see high based storms fire it will be late in the day to near 9:00 PM before we loose the heat of the day and mostly W of I-45.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
