June: Record June High Temps Across Texas!
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srainhoutx
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The overnight models are in some what agreement that a ‘cool front’ will drop S into Texas on Thursday. The shorter term meso models are suggesting storms will develop across Central Texas as that boundary sags S into SE Texas. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a possibility that a Slight Risk will need to be expanded E into the Eastern Half of Texas. The focus of showers and storms will be along that frontal boundary and the best chance for storms appears to be N of I-10 tomorrow evening. As those storms wane on Friday, any left over boundaries and cold pooling may bring the better chances of showers/storms S of I-10 on Friday. The boundary should pull up stationary somewhere near the Coast late Friday. There are indications that the front will return N as a warm front bringing a return flow off the Gulf during the weekend. Isolated sea breeze showers and storms may be possible again on Sunday into early next week. 91L has a very brief chance to be classified as a tropical or sub tropical system as in moves NE toward Apalachicola on Friday. Wind shear and dry air should limited any real development as that rain maker for Florida and the SE US moves into the Atlantic this weekend.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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We need cans of RAID to keep the cockroach ridge out.niner21 wrote:As long as that idiot high pressure dome doesn't come back then we are good. Back to normal 93 - 72 and 20% chance of rain every day in the summer....
I will smash a cockroach high with my shoe!!
Can I get a little help reading the time stamp on that forecast map for C. Texas? I've got a youth outdoor sporting event Thursday at 7pm. thanks!srainhoutx wrote:The overnight models are in some what agreement that a ‘cool front’ will drop S into Texas on Thursday. The shorter term meso models are suggesting storms will develop across Central Texas as that boundary sags S into SE Texas. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a possibility that a Slight Risk will need to be expanded E into the Eastern Half of Texas. The focus of showers and storms will be along that frontal boundary and the best chance for storms appears to be N of I-10 tomorrow evening. As those storms wane on Friday, any left over boundaries and cold pooling may bring the better chances of showers/storms S of I-10 on Friday. The boundary should pull up stationary somewhere near the Coast late Friday. There are indications that the front will return N as a warm front bringing a return flow off the Gulf during the weekend. Isolated sea breeze showers and storms may be possible again on Sunday into early next week. 91L has a very brief chance to be classified as a tropical or sub tropical system as in moves NE toward Apalachicola on Friday. Wind shear and dry air should limited any real development as that rain maker for Florida and the SE US moves into the Atlantic this weekend.
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ201-215-216-261-262-060000-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...
WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...
LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...
KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...
BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...
CAMERON...GRAND CHENIER...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...BEAUMONT...
PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
151 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 1255 PM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
FUNNEL CLOUD WHICH EVENTUALLY TOUCHED DOWN AS A WATERSPOUT JUST
OFF THE COAST OF GRAND CHENIER IN CAMERON PARISH.
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE.
THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ201-215-216-261-262-060000-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...
WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...
LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...
KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...
BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...
CAMERON...GRAND CHENIER...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...BEAUMONT...
PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
151 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013
...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 1255 PM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
FUNNEL CLOUD WHICH EVENTUALLY TOUCHED DOWN AS A WATERSPOUT JUST
OFF THE COAST OF GRAND CHENIER IN CAMERON PARISH.
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OVER THE AREA IS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN COOLED
BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND THE SEABREEZE
COLLIDE.
THESE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE USUALLY SHORT-LIVED AND DO NOT
REACH THE GROUND. IF THE FUNNEL CLOUD BECOMES MORE SEVERE AND
REACHES THE GROUND...MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR...AND A TORNADO
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Paul Robison
What are the prospects for severe weather? Will we see any rotating cells? (I might want to go storm chasing, is why I'm asking.)
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Katdaddy
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TS Andrea now up to 60MPH and approaching the Florida Coast N of Tampa. Tornado Watch for S FLA until 11AM. Back home in SE TX a weak front and associated outflow boundary will slowly push into the area triggering strong to severe storms. Very heavy rainfall will also be possible with some isolated amounts of 2-4". A stormy afternoon and evening commute likely.
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Strong to severe thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall possible this afternoon.
Complex of thunderstorms moving across N TX currently will send an outflow boundary southward into the area this morning. An already unstable air mass will become extremely unstable by early afternoon under surface heating with CAPE values increasing into the 3500-4500 J/kg range. While shear values are unimpressive the extreme amounts of instability over the region will support a large hail and wind damage threat. Expect the outflow boundary/weak front to reach our northern counties this morning and slowly move southward through the peak heating this afternoon.
At the same time inland moving seabreeze and baybreeze boundaries will move north and west from the coast also yielding the potential for storms to form ahead of the frontal boundary. High resolution models are not overly aggressive with rain chances this afternoon and evening, but atmospheric parameters suggest strong to severe storms are possible. Collision of the seabreeze boundary and incoming front/outflow may yield a short period excessive rainfall threat somewhere between I-10 and the coast this evening as the collision of the boundaries would result in slowing storms motions in an extremely moist air mass (PWS nearing 1.7 inches). Could easily see short term rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches in an hour from the stronger storms and this would be possible over the Houston metro area toward the afternoon rush hour.
Frontal boundary will stall near the coast/offshore Friday, but NW flow aloft will continue to drive shortwave into the region from the NW where large thunderstorm complexes may form over E NM and the TX panhandle each evening and track toward our region toward the following morning. Timing of such said disturbances is difficult, but the past few days has shown several complexes reaching into what would be our area about 10-12 hours after forming in the lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridge builds over the area by the middle of next week with very warm conditions expected. Could easily see mid to upper 90’s for the end of next week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall possible this afternoon.
Complex of thunderstorms moving across N TX currently will send an outflow boundary southward into the area this morning. An already unstable air mass will become extremely unstable by early afternoon under surface heating with CAPE values increasing into the 3500-4500 J/kg range. While shear values are unimpressive the extreme amounts of instability over the region will support a large hail and wind damage threat. Expect the outflow boundary/weak front to reach our northern counties this morning and slowly move southward through the peak heating this afternoon.
At the same time inland moving seabreeze and baybreeze boundaries will move north and west from the coast also yielding the potential for storms to form ahead of the frontal boundary. High resolution models are not overly aggressive with rain chances this afternoon and evening, but atmospheric parameters suggest strong to severe storms are possible. Collision of the seabreeze boundary and incoming front/outflow may yield a short period excessive rainfall threat somewhere between I-10 and the coast this evening as the collision of the boundaries would result in slowing storms motions in an extremely moist air mass (PWS nearing 1.7 inches). Could easily see short term rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches in an hour from the stronger storms and this would be possible over the Houston metro area toward the afternoon rush hour.
Frontal boundary will stall near the coast/offshore Friday, but NW flow aloft will continue to drive shortwave into the region from the NW where large thunderstorm complexes may form over E NM and the TX panhandle each evening and track toward our region toward the following morning. Timing of such said disturbances is difficult, but the past few days has shown several complexes reaching into what would be our area about 10-12 hours after forming in the lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridge builds over the area by the middle of next week with very warm conditions expected. Could easily see mid to upper 90’s for the end of next week.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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The Storm Prediction Center issues Slight Risk for portions of E Central and SE Texas later today:
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SE
TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
FAR SW TX AND SE NM...
...FL TODAY...
THE CORE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD FROM
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING /REFER TO LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/. TO THE RIGHT
OF THE CYCLONE TRACK...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...AS WELL AS A FEW CLOUD
BREAKS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA TODAY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED TWO DISTINCT
CONVECTIVE BANDS...ONE OFF THE W COAST OF FL CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE
CORE...AND ANOTHER BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT IS SPREADING EWD NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN
BAND APPROACHING THE E CENTRAL FL COAST TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED MCV. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AS THE ERN GULF BAND MOVES INLAND...PRIMARILY WHERE THE STORMS
INTERSECT A SUBTLE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
...E/SE TX TO CENTRAL LA/MS TODAY...
A WELL-DEVELOPED MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ESEWD ACROSS N CENTRAL/NE TX TODAY. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON THE SE FLANK OF THE MCV WHERE THE WEAK SURFACE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING...ACROSS E TX. SOME FLOW ENHANCEMENT
ALOFT ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV COULD PROMOTE MORE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLUSTERS OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS
E/SE TX. MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
NEAR 30 KT COULD SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS
WELL AS DAMAGING GUSTS GIVEN PRECIPITATION LOADING AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IN LA ALONG I-20 COULD ALSO
PERSIST WHILE DEVELOPING SWWD ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. A FEW STRONG
PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLUSTER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR AND W OF THE SABINE RIVER AS
OUTFLOW WITH THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE NE TX CONVECTION AND
MCV. FARTHER E INTO MS...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WILL OCCUR E-SE OF THE ONGOING LA STORMS...WHILE RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER E/NE IN MS...JUST
TO THE NW OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUOYANCY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
PULSE STORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
...SW TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INTO FAR SW TX AND SE NM...AND THIS ENELY FLOW
REGIME WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SAG
SWD TODAY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A BELT OF MODEST WNWLY
MID-UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THIS AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE STORM COVERAGE SINCE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FOR ASCENT WILL BE NEBULOUS AT
BEST...THUS MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LIKE THE DAVIS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 06/06/2013
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SE
TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
FAR SW TX AND SE NM...
...FL TODAY...
THE CORE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD FROM
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING /REFER TO LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/. TO THE RIGHT
OF THE CYCLONE TRACK...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...AS WELL AS A FEW CLOUD
BREAKS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA TODAY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED TWO DISTINCT
CONVECTIVE BANDS...ONE OFF THE W COAST OF FL CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE
CORE...AND ANOTHER BROKEN BAND OF STORMS THAT IS SPREADING EWD NEAR
THE ATLANTIC COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN
BAND APPROACHING THE E CENTRAL FL COAST TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED MCV. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AS THE ERN GULF BAND MOVES INLAND...PRIMARILY WHERE THE STORMS
INTERSECT A SUBTLE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL.
...E/SE TX TO CENTRAL LA/MS TODAY...
A WELL-DEVELOPED MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ESEWD ACROSS N CENTRAL/NE TX TODAY. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON THE SE FLANK OF THE MCV WHERE THE WEAK SURFACE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING...ACROSS E TX. SOME FLOW ENHANCEMENT
ALOFT ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV COULD PROMOTE MORE
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLUSTERS OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS
E/SE TX. MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
NEAR 30 KT COULD SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS
WELL AS DAMAGING GUSTS GIVEN PRECIPITATION LOADING AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IN LA ALONG I-20 COULD ALSO
PERSIST WHILE DEVELOPING SWWD ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. A FEW STRONG
PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLUSTER TODAY...AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR AND W OF THE SABINE RIVER AS
OUTFLOW WITH THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE NE TX CONVECTION AND
MCV. FARTHER E INTO MS...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WILL OCCUR E-SE OF THE ONGOING LA STORMS...WHILE RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER E/NE IN MS...JUST
TO THE NW OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. THOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUOYANCY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
PULSE STORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
...SW TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INTO FAR SW TX AND SE NM...AND THIS ENELY FLOW
REGIME WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SAG
SWD TODAY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A BELT OF MODEST WNWLY
MID-UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THIS AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE STORM COVERAGE SINCE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FOR ASCENT WILL BE NEBULOUS AT
BEST...THUS MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LIKE THE DAVIS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 06/06/2013
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Nice wide view of TS Andrea and the storm complex to our N associated with the cool front. The outflow boundary to our N interacting with the circulation of Andrea in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico makes for an interesting visible shot.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z WRF, 09Z SREF and the 13Z RAP are suggesting storms fire as the sea breeze/bay breeze collide with an approaching outflow boundary later this afternoon.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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A vort max is clearly visible across the Red River Valley this late morning. CU field is beginning to develop near Austin and our sea breeze is starting to develop. The SPC will like keep a Slight Risk in place with their next update.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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TC's beginning to increase to my NW in Waller County. Our neighbors in SW Louisiana and far SE Texas keep an eye on a brief tropical funnels spinning up in this very moist and unstable atmosphere.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ201-215-216-261-262-070000-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...
WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...
LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...
KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...
BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...
CAMERON...GRAND CHENIER...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...BEAUMONT...
PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
1202 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
AROUND 1100 AM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR FORKED ISLAND.
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES INDICATE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN-
COOLED BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND POSSIBLY AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLIDE.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ201-215-216-261-262-070000-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...
WELSH...LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...
LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...
KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...
BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...HOLLY BEACH...
CAMERON...GRAND CHENIER...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...BEAUMONT...
PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
1202 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
AROUND 1100 AM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR FORKED ISLAND.
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES INDICATE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN-
COOLED BOUNDARIES...KNOWN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND POSSIBLY AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLIDE.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1159 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR CORRIGAN...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF DIBOLL...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
DAMAGING WINDS.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORRIGAN.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1206 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1159 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR CORRIGAN...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF DIBOLL...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
DAMAGING WINDS.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORRIGAN.
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:
Factors coming together to produce a round of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.
Overnight thunderstorm complex (MCS) has developed a weak area of low pressure (MVC) over southern OK which is pushing an outflow boundary SSE into our NW counties at the moment. An additional cluster of storms developed this morning over C LA and has pushed an outflow boundary SW into our NE counties. A third boundary…the seabreeze is clearly visible along the coast and starting to move inland. The air mass over the region is already unstable and with additional heating expect to see storms rapidly develop over the next 2-4 hours along the incoming boundaries. Short range guidance is not handling the situation well, but feel the HRRR is likely the best at this moment and is trying to grasp the complicated low level pattern. It develops numerous thunderstorms across the area this afternoon as the seabreeze and SW moving outflow collide near I-10 and additional storms this evening on the SE moving boundary to our NW.
Given additional surface heating, the air mass will become more unstable and this along with weak shear on the south side of the S OK MVC will support a severe threat with the storms this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats and SPC has placed the entire area under a slight risk. Thus far storm motions have been fast enough to negate flooding however this may change this afternoon and low level boundaries collide and storms develop and mid level steering weakens. Given the tropical nature of the air mass in place, deep convection will have the potential for some excessive rainfall rates (2-3 inches per hour).
Factors coming together to produce a round of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.
Overnight thunderstorm complex (MCS) has developed a weak area of low pressure (MVC) over southern OK which is pushing an outflow boundary SSE into our NW counties at the moment. An additional cluster of storms developed this morning over C LA and has pushed an outflow boundary SW into our NE counties. A third boundary…the seabreeze is clearly visible along the coast and starting to move inland. The air mass over the region is already unstable and with additional heating expect to see storms rapidly develop over the next 2-4 hours along the incoming boundaries. Short range guidance is not handling the situation well, but feel the HRRR is likely the best at this moment and is trying to grasp the complicated low level pattern. It develops numerous thunderstorms across the area this afternoon as the seabreeze and SW moving outflow collide near I-10 and additional storms this evening on the SE moving boundary to our NW.
Given additional surface heating, the air mass will become more unstable and this along with weak shear on the south side of the S OK MVC will support a severe threat with the storms this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats and SPC has placed the entire area under a slight risk. Thus far storm motions have been fast enough to negate flooding however this may change this afternoon and low level boundaries collide and storms develop and mid level steering weakens. Given the tropical nature of the air mass in place, deep convection will have the potential for some excessive rainfall rates (2-3 inches per hour).
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srainhoutx
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO SW LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061728Z - 061900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE TX INTO SW LA THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH SEMI-DISCRETE STORM CLUSTERS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT HOUR.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR POLK COUNTY TX
S/SEWD INTO BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SW LA. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
INTERSECTING A SFC WIND SHIFT LINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE POLK
COUNTY TX STORM. AGITATED CU FIELD WAS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG AND N OF THIS WIND SHIFT LINE TOWARD THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE DAY. 17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE /APPROACHING
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE/. BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 30-40 KT WILL AID IN
ORGANIZATION OF SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ADEQUATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPDRAFT STRENGTH...LEADING TO
SEVERE HAIL THREAT. PW VALUES OVER 1.7 INCHES AND DCAPE VALUES
NEARING 1000 J/KG WILL FURTHER INCREASE SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL IN
ADDITION TO HAIL THREAT. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS AND EXPECTED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR.
..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 06/06/2013
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO SW LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061728Z - 061900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE TX INTO SW LA THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH SEMI-DISCRETE STORM CLUSTERS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT HOUR.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR POLK COUNTY TX
S/SEWD INTO BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SW LA. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
INTERSECTING A SFC WIND SHIFT LINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE POLK
COUNTY TX STORM. AGITATED CU FIELD WAS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG AND N OF THIS WIND SHIFT LINE TOWARD THE COLD FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE DAY. 17Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE /APPROACHING
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE/. BULK SHEAR VALUES FROM 30-40 KT WILL AID IN
ORGANIZATION OF SEMI-DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ADEQUATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPDRAFT STRENGTH...LEADING TO
SEVERE HAIL THREAT. PW VALUES OVER 1.7 INCHES AND DCAPE VALUES
NEARING 1000 J/KG WILL FURTHER INCREASE SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL IN
ADDITION TO HAIL THREAT. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS AND EXPECTED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR.
..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 06/06/2013
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
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srainhoutx
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1252 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
POLK TX-
1252 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT
* AT 1248 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
HOUR BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE CORRIGAN AREA.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
CORRIGAN.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1252 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
POLK TX-
1252 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 245 PM CDT
* AT 1248 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. UP TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST
HOUR BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE CORRIGAN AREA.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
CORRIGAN.
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srainhoutx
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Penny sized hail reported in Corrigan as the outflow boundary heads SW.
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srainhoutx
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Outflow boundary from E Texas storms continues to slowly sag S and W. Some towering cumulus clouds are developing near the Bryan/College Station area and back to the SW along the frontal boundary. The Vort Max is currently near the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex heading slowly ESE.
HGX Radar has been repaired:
HGX Radar has been repaired:
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Code: Select all
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 284
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
228 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2013
TXC015-039-041-051-071-157-167-185-201-225-291-313-339-373-407-
455-471-473-477-070300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.A.0284.130606T1928Z-130607T0300Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
284 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES
AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS
BURLESON CHAMBERS FORT BEND
GALVESTON GRIMES HARRIS
HOUSTON LIBERTY MADISON
MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO
TRINITY WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...
DAYTON...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...
ONALASKA...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WILLIS AND WINNIE.
$$
GMZ335-070300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.A.0284.130606T1928Z-130607T0300Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
284 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
AREAS
THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
GALVESTON BAY
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