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WTPZ42 KNHC 291438
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

AFTER A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION EPISODE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
BANDING-TYPE EYE AS OPPOSED TO A CLOSED EYEWALL. BASED ON A
COMPARISON OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE PUERTO ANGEL MEXICAN
RADAR IMAGES...THE CENTER IS TILTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
DIAGNOSED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE
WIND SPEED FORECAST...WE STILL ANTICIPATE THAT BARBARA WILL BECOME
A HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD BE RAPID LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 36 HOURS...THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE BEEN SO SEVERELY
DISRUPTED BY THAT TIME THAT REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH ALSO SHOW STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS MORNING AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/11. THE ACCELERATION APPEARS TO BE
DUE TO A BELT OF MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW LATITUDES OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO EXTREME EASTERN MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WEAKER STEERING CURRENT AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLIES AND APPROACHES A BROAD
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A DECREASING
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 15.7N 94.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 16.9N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1200Z 17.9N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0000Z 18.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

Barbara is nearing landfall

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

AFTER A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION EPISODE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
BANDING-TYPE EYE AS OPPOSED TO A CLOSED EYEWALL. BASED ON A
COMPARISON OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE PUERTO ANGEL MEXICAN
RADAR IMAGES...THE CENTER IS TILTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
DIAGNOSED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE
WIND SPEED FORECAST...WE STILL ANTICIPATE THAT BARBARA WILL BECOME
A HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD BE RAPID LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 36 HOURS...THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE BEEN SO SEVERELY
DISRUPTED BY THAT TIME THAT REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH ALSO SHOW STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS MORNING AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/11. THE ACCELERATION APPEARS TO BE
DUE TO A BELT OF MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW LATITUDES OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO EXTREME EASTERN MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WEAKER STEERING CURRENT AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLIES AND APPROACHES A BROAD
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A DECREASING
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 15.7N 94.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 16.9N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1200Z 17.9N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0000Z 18.5N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 94.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

18Z Tracks:

Hurricane Barbara went from tropical storm to hurricane, like Humberto did in 2007.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc#BARBARA

8:00 PM PDT Wed May 29
Location: 17.1°N 93.8°W
Moving: NNE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph



TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

BARBARA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY...AND WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY RECENT REPORTS OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 45 KT BASED ON A NORMAL INLAND DECAY RATE. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY BEING DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND BARBARA IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS BARBARA EMERGING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AS A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION AT
THAT POINT...AND IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT BARBARA WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING WATER. IN ANY CASE...ONCE THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA
REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.

OF MORE IMMINENT CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH BARBARA IS
WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ITS REMNANTS IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE A HEIGHTENED
RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 17.1N 93.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1200Z 18.1N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0000Z 18.8N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. BASED ON THE TIME SPENT OVER LAND AND THE
LACK OF ANY REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
SOON...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THAT
REASONING. A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ARE MAINTAINED...BARBARA
COULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
THIS MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT ADVISORY
WOULD BE ISSUED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND
HEADERS.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO
BE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 17.8N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 18.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

IR satellite imagery suggests TD Barbara may have crossed over to the Bay of Campeche at the mid levels. We will see if advisories start for the NATL side of the Basin or if the NHC drops all advisories.

she's on Atlantic floater page http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

coming into view on TCEQ's SW Gulf

Surface observations from Los Tuxtlas suggest light N wind while Coatzacoalco reports W to WSW winds, so it does appear a very weak low level circulation may have enter the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

...BARBARA NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO BUT VERY ILL DEFINED...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 95.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
95.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3
MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR OR ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A
DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

...BARBARA DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 94.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BARBARA NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND IS THEREFORE
NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

its about to have one