Tropical Storm Barry: Landfall N of Veracruz

[srainhoutx]

MIMIC suggests TD 2 has taken a bit of a NW jog since making landfall in Belize. It is not uncommon for the Yucatan Peninsula to affect storm systems in unusual ways that are sometimes not modeled well at all. The eventual outcome probably will not change that much, but perhaps a bit more time over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche.

[srainhoutx]

RECON will investigate TD 2 tomorrow afternoon over the Bay of Campeche:

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1020 AM EDT TUE 18 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-018

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO -- BAY OF CAMPECHE
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 19/1800Z                A. 20/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0102A CYCLONE     B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 19/1430Z                C. 20/0815Z
       D. 18.8N 93.8W             D. 19.1N 95.4W
       E. 19/1700 TO 19/2100Z     E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS: INVEST FOR 18/2000Z AND FIX MISSION FOR 
       19/1200Z ON THIS SYSTEM CANCELED BY NHC AT 18/1230Z.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.0N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[unome]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#BARRY

000
WTNT62 KNHC 191844
TCUAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM BARRY...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE
SEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.


SUMMARY OF 145 PM CDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY...THE SECOND
NAMED CYCLONE OF THE 2013 SEASON. SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM
THE AIRCRAFT YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SOME SFMR
VALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT THESE WINDS WERE RAIN
CONTAMINATED AND WERE DISCARDED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BARRY TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND...BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE.

BARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER
BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL
DISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.6N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.6N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0600Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
700 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO TUXPAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST. BARRY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS A
WIND GUST TO 44 MPH...71 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT SACRIFICE ISLAND
NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE APPROACHING THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[skidog40]

west?

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BARRY
MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN 1200 AND 1300 UTC JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ
MEXICO WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KNOTS. SINCE THAT
TIME...WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER
WATER NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS ALREADY INLAND...THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...PRIMARILY OVER THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

BARRY IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS TRAPPED SOUTH OF NARROW
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.6N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1200Z 19.6N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA