Long Range Model Thread.

[don]

Euro shows worse case scenario thank goodness this is still a long ways way

[srainhoutx]

HPC Prelim Disco...concerning the GOM

MEANWHILE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE PROVIDING GRADUALLY STRONGER HINTS THAT FLOW
AROUND THE PERSISTENT SRN CONUS/WRN ATLC RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
STEER ONE OR MORE TROPICAL FEATURES FROM THE CARIBBEAN NWWD INTO
OR NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXTRAPOLATION OF YDAYS TPC/HPC
COORDINATION BRINGS A SFC CENTER INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... COMPATIBLE WITH 00Z GEFS/12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE PARALLEL GFS/CANADIAN ARE ON THE RIGHT
EXTREME OF THE SOLN ENVELOPE.

[srainhoutx]

Are you talking about this?



000
ABNT20 KNHC 211152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

Canadian Model...

[srainhoutx]

KEY (Key West) thoughts this morning...hmmm...

THEREAFTER...GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY. GFS
INDICATES THE INITIAL TROPICAL WAVE WILL MIGRATE WEST/WEST NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT NEAR OUR
REGION THURSDAY...BEFORE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. OF
NOTE...GFS REVEALS A LACK OF SHARPNESS/CURVATURE ALONG WITH MODEST
AT BEST WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. CONVERSELY...ECMWF KEEPS
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND THE WAVE AXIS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE...WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF
THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL VERY BULLISH AND
FURTHEST NORTH...ECMWF TAKING A LOW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
OPERATIONAL GFS/GFS-ENSEMBLE MUCH WEAKER AND WAY SOUTH IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. DUE TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE AND A LACK OF DATA SAMPLING CURRENTLY IN THIS
REGION...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. REGARDLESS...GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND A LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE
NORMAL POPS. OTHERWISE...DESPITE CHANGEABLE SKIES...INTENSE LATE
JUNE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE NEAR 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80.

[singlemom]

Soooo....first the models took it to Corpus\Padre and up through the Texas Panhandle, and now it's taking it to the Florida Panhandle. I'm all for models changing as we get closer but isn't that a dramatic shift??

[srainhoutx]

The models will change from run to run as we see all the time. It does mean that we will need to watch and keep informed as we get closer to the end of the week and through this weekend if things develop. Remember we are talking about a disturbance that could affect the Gulf Coast Region near July 4th.

ECMWF Ensembles suggests the W GOM will need to be watched as well...if it is correct...

[don]

Yea I agree, with the given pattern lately I question if there will be a weakness that strong to allow this thing to enter the central/northeast Gulf but time will tell.

[txflagwaver]

Email from Jeff Lindner this morning

Tropics:

Active tropical waves over the eastern Caribbean Sea this morning are moving westward under the Bermuda ridge to their north. While disorganized at the moment, conditions are forecast to becoming increasingly favorable for development as the area reaches the western Caribbean Sea. Numerous forecast models show tropical cyclone formation late this week or this weekend in the western Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. The EURO and CMC are by far the most aggressive taking a strong TC into and through the Gulf of Mexico with landfalls aimed at the east-central Gulf coast, while the NOGAPS slowly tacks a system toward the Yucatan and the Bay of Campeche and surprisingly the GFS shows nothing at all…only a few of its ensemble members even show anything. I will discount the EURO and CMC as being much too intense resulting in a rightward track over the Gulf. Will side instead with the weaker solution of the NOGAPS, but stronger than the GFS. HPC progs yesterday afternoon inserted a 1008mb closed low over the NW Caribbean this Saturday and moves it WNW to off the NW tip of the Yucatan this Sunday and this seems most reasonable at the moment. Forecasted steering patterns by this weekend favor a WNW to NW track of any tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico as low to mid level ridging develops over the SE US. Hopefully model run-to-run consistency will begin to improve with this system this week…obviously a close watch is needed on any developing tropical system in the Gulf this time of year and our local forecast may have significant changes by this weekend into next week depending on what transpires.

[Paul]

Someone tell Jeff to send me his emails...sheesh...I feel like a step child...

anyways the last set of models ran are right while this am they were left. Its the same game but different year.....wait for the LLC folks then we can really track it and models will start to get some consistency....EURO tonight should be fun...

[srainhoutx]

Interesting comment from HGX this morning...snip...sound familiar?

LOOKING AHEAD FOR FRI...POPS TO REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE AS THE
HIGH PWS AND STRONG INFLOW PERSIST. ADDITIONALLY...WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED WE COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. CHC POPS TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE >2.5
INCH PWS LINGER AND PROGS TRY TO LURE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN FROM
THE EAST. NO REAL CESSATION OF THE DEEP/MOIST AIRMASS UNTIL MAYBE/
PERHAPS THE MIDDLE/END OF NXT WEEK. WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A
STRONG COLD FRONT IN FROM THE N/NW (NOT TOO LIKELY IN JULY)...WILL
BE LEANING MORE HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF WHERE THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR-
MASS COULD BE WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE ENE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES THIS DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
210HR ECMWF LOOKS REMARKABLY LIKE THE 00Z/INITIALIZED IMAGE. 41

[Paul]

I wouldnt discount the CMC as it was the best model in the 72-96hr range last year after all the tweaks its gone through...

Just saying Edward....

lots of acitvity on the GOM and anything forming would move west in the short term ala Alicia...

[Paul]

the CMC is on board with the EURO as well....this is the wave at 32W in the ITCZ...lets see what the GFS says tonight.....Just now July and it feels like August or Sept.....

[don]

Euro shows Gulf system headed towards the middle Texas coast now...

[Portastorm]

This morning's forecast discussion out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio also opines on King Euro's run:

THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING. THE ECMWF SPINS
UP ANOTHER SYSTEM BY MONDAY IN THE CARIBBEAN...IN THE SAME VICINITY
WHERE ALEX DEVELOPED. THE ECMWF MOVES THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE YUCATAN
INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD SUCCESS IN
IDENTIFYING DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM 5 TO 7 DAYS OUT SO IT BEARS
WATCHING.

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

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END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010070212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010070118, , BEST, 0, 306N, 829W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010070200, , BEST, 0, 304N, 833W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010070206, , BEST, 0, 302N, 836W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010070212, , BEST, 0, 300N, 840W, 20, 1015, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[srainhoutx]

[ticka1]

Okay Srainhoutx is this a joke or something??? Seriously is it?

[srainhoutx]

Well the new GFS suggests some interesting weather yet again. We shall see.