Former TS Dorian

[Rip76]

Interesting.. (Sort of)

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING A SMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS GALE-FORCE WINDS...A FEW HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

00Z Tracks & Intensity:

[srainhoutx]

The 06Z HWRF avoids Andros Island passes through the Florida Straights S of Key West, turns NW near the Marquesas Keys and develops into a Hurricane in the SE Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

Deep convection has returned to 91L/remnants of Dorian N of Puerto Rico. RECON is scheduled to investigate from St. Croix later this morning.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO...CONFIRM THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE DISTURBANCE IS POORLY
ORGANIZED WITH THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES WELL REMOVED FROM THE
MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND COULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE FOUND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

[srainhoutx]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 30 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
DORIAN CANCELED BY NHC AT 30/1610Z.

[wxman57]

There's nothing left of Dorian's remnants today. Storms over the eastern Bahamas are related to the upper low, not Dorian. I estimate that Dorian should be near 75W, about 250-300 miles west of those storms, but cannot any longer find any surface reflection of Dorian. Pressures in the region are quite high (1018mb-1020mb). The end...

[wxman57]

Clearly the NHC jumped the gun on this one. And I disagree it's Dorian's remnants, too. They had the wrong center on their morning advisory, as the center is a weak swirl of clouds way north of the convection. Should have waited for visible satellite to confirm it wasn't a TD. Time to downgrade it.

[TexasBreeze]

Clearly the NHC jumped the gun on this one. And I disagree it's Dorian's remnants, too. They had the wrong center on their morning advisory, as the center is a weak swirl of clouds way north of the convection. Should have waited for visible satellite to confirm it wasn't a TD. Time to downgrade it.

Most definately...